The decrease in cultivation of kharif crops is in about nine lakh hectares so far.
| Photo Credit: SANDEEP SAXENA

India’s rice production during the kharif season is likely to fall short of the target of 112 million tonnes (MT) and will reach only 104.99 MT, said the first advance estimate for 2022-23 released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare on Wednesday.

Overall, the Centre has estimated foodgrain production of 149.92 MT during the kharif season. The decrease in cultivation of kharif crops is in about nine lakh hectares till the end of last week. But the Centre is hopeful of an increase in the production of some crops, particularly in maize and sugarcane.

According to the estimates, the production of rice will be 104.99 MT. In 2020-21, the production was 105.21 MT. The Centre said the production is higher by 4.40 MT than the previous five-year average of kharif rice production of 100.59 MT.

The estimate also puts the production of coarse cereals at 36.56 MT, almost 14 MT less than 2020-21. Maize production may reach 23.10 MT, which could set a record, according to the Centre. The estimate is higher by 3.21 MT than the average maize production of 19.89 MT.

On pulses, the estimate is 8.37 MT, that includes 3.89 MT of tur. Total production of oilseeds is estimated at 23.57 MT. Soyabean production may reach 12.89 MT. Cotton production could be 34.19 million bales (of 170 kg each) and jute and mesta production may reach 10.09 million bales (of 180 kg each), the Centre said.

Sugarcane production is estimated at 465.05 MT, which is also a record. “Total foodgrain production in the country is estimated at 149.92 MT, which is higher by 6.98 MT than the average foodgrain production of 2016-17 to 2020-21,” the Centre said.

Representational image.
| Photo Credit: Kommuri Srinivas

A Finance Ministry report on September 17 underlined the need for deft management of stocks of agriculture commodities in view of lower crop-sowing for the Kharif Season, stressing there should be no room for complacency on the inflation front.

Overall, inflationary pressures in India appear to be on a decline with a pre-emptive set of administrative measures by the government, agile monetary policy and easing of international commodity prices and supply-chain bottlenecks, according to the monthly Economic Review released by the Finance Ministry.

However, it said, there is no “room for complacency on the inflation front as lower crop-sowing for the Kharif season calls for deft management of stocks of agricultural commodities and market prices without unduly jeopardising farm exports.”

India’s rice production could fall by 10-12 million tonnes during the Kharif season this year due to a fall in paddy sowing area, Food Secretary Sudhanshu Pandey had said earlier this month.

The Kharif season contributes about 80% of India’s total rice production.

There was a huge lag in paddy sowing in the states of Jharkhand (9.80 lakh ha), Madhya Pradesh (6.32 lakh ha), West Bengal (4.45 lakh ha), Chhattisgarh (3.91 lakh ha), Uttar Pradesh (2.61 lakh ha), and Bihar (2.18 lakh ha) so far this kharif season.

Paddy is the main kharif crop and its sowing begins with the onset of the southwest monsoon from June and harvesting from October onwards.

Observing that India’s growth has been robust and inflation in control at a time when slowing growth and high inflation are afflicting most of the major economies of the world.

The report further said inflation in India, a net commodity-importing country, has been a by-product of externally situated exogenous pressures.

“Increase in international prices was reflected in an uptick in domestic prices, though the increase in domestic prices was relatively modest on account of the timely interventions taken by the government. Further, as these external pressures ease, inflationary pressures in India are also likely to subside,” it said.

Several indicators are already pointing to the easing of external pressures, the report said, adding, industrial metals and edible oil prices after peaking in March 2022, have softened, led by recessionary fears in advanced economies.

Crude prices have dropped 19.1% by August since the peak in the month of June 2022 and supply chains are getting restored with decline in port congestion.

The impact is already reflected in the decline in retail and WPI inflation since April 2022. Retail inflation eased to 7% in August as compared to 7.8% in April 2022.

According to a notification by the Revenue Department, an export duty of 20% has been imposed on ‘rice in husk (paddy or rough)‘ and ‘husked (brown) rice’.
| Photo Credit: Sandeep Saxena

The Centre on Thursday imposed an export duty of 20% on rice, brown rice, and semi-milled as well as wholly milled rice except for parboiled rice to boost domestic supplies, effective September 9.

According to a notification by the Revenue Department, an export duty of 20% has been imposed on ‘rice in husk (paddy or rough)‘ and ‘husked (brown) rice’.

The development comes in the wake of concerns about lower paddy sowing by farmers this Kharif season amid uneven monsoons in parts of the country, that have exacerbated inflationary expectations and nudged up retail prices for rice in recent weeks.

The Central Board of Indirect Taxes & Customs further said the export of ‘semi-milled or wholly-milled rice, whether or not polished or glazed(other than Parboiled rice and Basmati rice)‘ will also attract a customs duty of 20 per cent.

The export duty will come in force from September 9, the notification added.The area under the paddy crop has been down by 5.62% at 383.99 lakh hectares in the ongoing Kharif season so far due to poor rains in some states, as per the latest data released by the Agriculture Ministry.

India, the world’s second-largest rice producer after China, commands a 40% share in the global trade.

The country exported 21.2 million tonnes of rice in the 2021-22 fiscal year, of which 3.94 million tonnes were Basmati rice. It exported non-Basmati rice worth $6.11 billion in the same period, as per official data.

The country exported non-Basmati rice to more than 150 countries in 2021-22.

Welcoming the export duty, former president of All India Rice Exporters Association Vijay Setia said Indian rice was being exported at a “very low price”. The export duty would lead to a reduction in non-Basmati rice shipments by 2-3 million tonnes, but the realisation from the exports would remain the same because of the 20% duty.

“It is a good decision in view of fall in paddy acreage,” Mr. Setia said.

The association’s current president Nathi Ram Gupta said the export of raw rice from southern parts of the country would be impacted, but shipments of parboiled may go up.

Paddy is the main Kharif crop, sowing of which begins with the onset of the southwest monsoon in June and harvesting starts from October onwards.

Rice production rose to a record 130.29 million tonnes in the last crop year as against 124.37 million tonnes in 2020-21.

The government has already restricted exports of wheat.

While the estimate of foodgrains production is 315.72 million tonnes, the production of rice is expected at 130.29 million tonnes. File
| Photo Credit: The Hindu

The Union Agriculture Ministry released on August 17 the fourth advance estimates of production of major agricultural crops for 2021-22. The Ministry said the production of foodgrains in the country is estimated at 315.72 million tonnes which is higher by 4.98 million tonnes than 2020-21.

Also read | A critical look at Tamil Nadu as a rice-providing State

A government release said the production during 2021-22 is higher by 25 million tonnes than the previous five years’ (2016-17 to 2020-21) average production of foodgrains. “Record production is estimated of rice, maize, gram, pulses, rapeseed and mustard, oilseeds and sugarcane,” it said. Union Agriculture and Farmers Welfare Minister Narendra Singh Tomar said the record production of so many crops is the result of the farmer-friendly policies of the Centre and the hard work of the farmers and the diligence of the scientists.

While the estimate of foodgrains production is 315.72 million tonnes, the production of rice is expected at 130.29 million tonnes, which, according to the Centre, is a record. Wheat production could touch 106.84 million tonnes and for nutri/coarse cereals it could be 50.90 million tonnes.

“Total production of Rice during 2021-22 is estimated at record 130.29 million tonnes. It is higher by 13.85 million tonnes than the last five years’ average production of 116.44 million tonnes. Production of Wheat during 2021-22 is estimated at 106.84 million tonnes. It is higher by 2.96 million tonnes than the last five years’ average wheat production of 103.88 million tonnes,” the release said.

“The assessment of production of various crops is based on the data received from States and validated with information available from other sources,” the Ministry said.