The rupee had edged up 1 paisa to close at 83.49 against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday ahead of the key testimony of US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in front of Congress. File.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

The rupee traded flat at 83.49 against the U.S. currency in the early session on July 10 amid losses in domestic equities and easing crude oil prices.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened flat at 83.49 against the U.S. dollar. The local currency moved in a restricted range of 83.49 to 83.50 against the greenback in early trade.

The rupee had edged up 1 paisa to close at 83.49 against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday ahead of the key testimony of US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in front of Congress.

Powell’s testimony offered little new guidance on the US central bank’s plans for when it might cut interest rates.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, eased 0.03% from overnight high levels to 105.09.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, declined 0.26% to $84.44 per barrel in futures trade.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex dropped by 143.15 points or 0.18% to close at 80,208.49. The broader NSE Nifty declined 27.20 points, or 0.11%, to 24,406.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Tuesday, as they purchased shares worth ₹314.46 crore, according to exchange data.

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The rupee pared its initial losses and settled for the day on an almost flat note at 83.50 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on July 4, resisting pressure from elevated crude oil prices.

Forex traders said a positive trend in domestic equities, wherein benchmark indices touched all-time high levels, and significant foreign fund inflows supported the rupee and restricted the fall.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.52 and hit the intraday high of 83.48 and a low of 83.56 against the American currency during the session.

It finally settled at 83.50 (provisional) against the dollar, 1 paisa lower than its previous close.

On Wednesday, the rupee settled 1 paisa lower at 83.49 against the U.S. dollar.

“We expect the rupee to trade with a slight positive bias on softness in the US dollar amid weak economic data and rise in risk appetite in global markets,” said Anuj Choudhary – Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.

“However, elevated crude oil prices may limit the gains. Investors may remain cautious ahead of the U.S. non-farm payrolls report tomorrow,” Mr. Choudhary said, adding that $-₹ spot price is expected to trade in a range of ₹83.20 to ₹83.80.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.15% lower at 105.24.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, were trading 0.47% lower at $86.93 per barrel.

In the domestic equity market, Sensex breached the historic 80,000-mark and Nifty scaled a fresh lifetime high. The 30-share BSE Sensex ended the day 62.87 points, or 0.08%, up at its all-time high of 80,049.67 points. The broader NSE Nifty settled 15.65 points, or 0.06%, higher at a fresh peak of 24,302.15 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Wednesday, as they purchased shares worth ₹5,483.63 crore, according to exchange data.

Meanwhile, according to an official of S&P Global Ratings, a sovereign rating upgrade for India in the next 24 months is possible if the central government is able to prudently manage its finances and bring down the fiscal deficit to 4% of GDP.

S&P Global Ratings Director, Sovereign Ratings, YeeFarn Phua, said the trigger for an upgrade would be the government (Centre + states) deficit falling below 7 per cent of the GDP, and a lot of this would have to be driven by the central government.

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The rupee appreciated 8 paise to 83.37 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on June 28, supported by a positive trend in domestic equities and foreign fund inflows.

Forex traders said the strength of the American currency in the overseas market and elevated crude oil prices weighed on the local unit and restricted the appreciation bias.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.42 and gained further ground to trade at 83.37 against the greenback in initial deals, registering an increase of 8 paise from its previous closing level.

On Thursday, the rupee appreciated 12 paise to settle at 83.45 against the U.S. dollar.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading higher by 0.15% at 106.06, ahead of the crucial U.S. inflation reading this evening.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, were trading 0.47% higher at $86.80 per barrel, as fears of supply disruptions from Russia and the Middle East on continued war offset slowing demand.

On Thursday, there were good inflows taking the rupee higher from Wednesday’s closing level, said Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director, Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP.

“Inflows are expected on Friday as well, it being the month-end and quarter-end and could take the rupee higher towards 83.35. Exporters may wait to sell while importers may buy the dips,” Mr. Bhansali added.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex advanced 347.48 points, or 0.44%, to 79,590.66 points. The broader NSE Nifty rose 114.55 points, or 114.55%, to 24,159.05 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Thursday, as they purchased shares worth ₹7,658.77 crore, according to exchange data.

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| Photo Credit: Reuters

The rupee recovered from previous day’s steep fall and traded 3 paise higher at 83.58 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on Friday on the back of sustained inflow of foreign capital and strong domestic equity market sentiment.

Forex traders said the local unit found support from retreating American currency and easing crude oil prices overseas.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the local unit opened at 83.60 and gained further to 83.58 against the greenback, registering a rise of 3 paise from its previous close.

On Thursday, the rupee had plunged 17 paise to hit its over two-month low level of 83.61 against the dollar. The domestic currency recorded its previous lowest closing level of 83.61 on April 16 this year.

Anand James, Chief Market Strategist, Geojit Financial Services, said the rupee’s sharp decline was “partly triggered by significant block deals worth ₹23,000 crore” a day earlier when Vodafone Idea also sold its 18% stake in Indus Towers for ₹15,300 crore.

At the same time, the dollar was “buoyed by wider interest-rate differentials” after major economies began cutting interest rates ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve, while “parts of Europe faced political turmoil”.

“The dollar’s ascent was also driven by a decline in the pound after the Bank of England decided not to cut interest rates,” Mr. James said.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading lower by 0.01% at 105.21.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, fell 0.13% to $85.60 per barrel.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 127.75 points, or 0.16%, to 77,606.68. The broader NSE Nifty rose 37.65 points, or 0.16%, to 23,604.65. Both the indices closed the previous session at their highest levels.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Thursday as they purchased shares worth ₹415.30 crore, according to exchange data.

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| Photo Credit: Reuters

The rupee depreciated 10 paise to 83.50 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on June 10, largely due to the rise in the dollar index and US yields.

Forex traders said uncertainty among market players was down as Narendra Modi was sworn in as Prime Minister on Sunday for a record-equalling third term. However, the strength of the American currency in the international market weighed on the local unit.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.48 and lost further ground to trade at 83.50 against the greenback, registering a loss of 10 paise from its previous closing level.

On Friday, the rupee appreciated 13 paise to 83.40 against the U.S. dollar.

According to Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP, the rupee opened at 83.50 largely due to the rise in the dollar index and U.S. yields.

“The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) should be present protecting the rupee as existing policies of the government will continue with largely the same cabinet as in Modi-2.0,” Mr. Bhansali said.

PM Modi will be heading a 72-member Union Council of Ministers putting emphasis on continuity, youth and experience, while also rewarding partners in the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government.

Along with PM Modi, senior BJP leaders including Rajnath Singh, Amit Shah, Nitin Gadkari, Nirmala Sitharaman and S. Jaishankar, all ministers in the Modi 2.0 Cabinet, took oath as Cabinet ministers at the Rashtrapati Bhavan.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 105.18, higher by 0.29%.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, advanced 0.31% to $79.87 per barrel.

On the domestic equity market, both benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, scaled record high levels in initial trade. The 30-share BSE Sensex was trading 292.08 points, or 0.38% higher at 76,985.44 points. The broader NSE Nifty was trading at 23,291.50 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Friday, as they purchased shares worth ₹4,391.02 crore, according to exchange data.

Meanwhile, India’s forex reserves jumped $4.837 billion to a new all-time high of $651.51 billion for the week ended May 31, the RBI said on Friday.

In the previous reporting week, the overall reserves had dropped $2.027 billion to $646.673 billion.

 On Wednesday, the domestic currency settled 7 paise higher at 83.44 against the dollar. File.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

The rupee inched up 1 paisa to 83.43 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on June 6 on the back of a weak American currency and positive domestic equity markets.

Forex traders said an upward movement in the crude oil prices resisted a sharp rise in the Indian currency even as investors moved cautiously ahead of the RBI’s monetary policy decision to be announced on Friday.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.40 and slipped to 83.43 against the greenback, trading 1 paisa higher from its previous close.

On Wednesday, the domestic currency settled 7 paise higher at 83.44 against the dollar.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.15% lower at 104.06.

Analysts attributed the weakness in the dollar index to a sharp fall in US Treasury yields after the latest data showed private sector job growth in May was slower than estimated, raising expectations of an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve.

They said that market participants are expected to take further cues from the weekly U.S. jobs data to be released later in the day. Also, they said the decision of RBI’s rate-setting panel to impact investors’ sentiment.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of RBI on Wednesday started its three-day deliberations to decide the next monetary policy. Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das will announce the decisions on Friday.

“The Reserve Bank of India is set to keep its repo rate at 6.5 per cent at its June 7 review. Policy is turning more restrictive as cooling inflation pushes up real rates, hurting growth,” said Amit Goel, Co-Founder & Chief Global Strategist, Pace 360.

He further said the RBI’s record dividend payment of Rs 2.1 lakh crore to the government for FY24 may alleviate concerns about the growth outlook.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, advanced 0.38% to $78.71 per barrel.

On the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 303.91 points or 0.41% to 74,686.15 in early trade. The NSE Nifty went up 70.25 points or 0.31% to 22,690.60.

Foreign investors were net sellers of Indian equities on Wednesday as they offloaded shares worth ₹5,656.26 crore on a net basis. FIIs bought shares worth ₹21,012.72 crore and sold equities worth ₹26,668.98 crore in the cash segment.

India’s service sector growth eased to a five-month low in May amid fierce competition, price pressures and a severe heatwave, even as new orders from international markets expanded at the steepest pace in a decade, according to a monthly survey released on Wednesday.

The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Services Business Activity Index fell to 60.2 in May from 60.8 a month earlier, its lowest mark since last December.

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The rupee recovered from the lower level and appreciated 7 paise to 83.44 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on June 5, taking cues from domestic equity markets and lower crude oil prices overseas.

Forex traders said the rush for value-buying triggered an uptrend in equity markets, boosting the local currency which saw a steep decline on June 4 after the general elections results showed a less-than-expected majority for the BJP-led NDA.

Also read | Markets bounce back in early trade after massive drop on value-buying at lower levels

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.50 and recovered some lost ground to trade at 83.44 against the greenback, registering a rise of 7 paise from its previous close.

On Tuesday, the domestic currency settled at 83.51 against the dollar.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.09% higher at 104.14.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, slipped 0.03% to $77.50 per barrel.

On the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 172.89 points to 72,251.94 in early trade. The NSE Nifty went up 39.25 points to 21,923.75.

Both the indices ended more than 6% lower on Tuesday amid fear selling after the counting of votes showed disappointing results for the BJP-led NDA in the Lok Sabha elections with the alliance facing losses in its strongholds in the Hindi heartland, although it is expected to form the government with about 290 seats.

Foreign investors were net sellers of Indian equities on Monday as they offloaded shares worth ₹12,436.22 crore on a net basis. FIIs bought shares worth ₹26,776.17 crore and sold equities worth ₹39,212.39 crore in the cash segment.

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| Photo Credit: Reuters

The rupee surged 38 paise to hit its three-month high level of 83.04 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on June 2 boosted by a robust sentiment in domestic equity markets on the back of strong macroeconomic data and exit poll results showing a third term for the Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led government.

A weak American currency and inflow of foreign capital into domestic equities also supported the local unit, forex traders said.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.09 and gained further to trade at 83.04 against the greenback in initial deals, registering an increase of 38 paise from its previous close. The rupee had breached the 83.00 level on March 18 this year.

The local unit clocked the highest single-day rise since April 2023 when it appreciated by 42 paise.

On Friday, the rupee declined 13 paise to close at 83.42 against the U.S. dollar.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.06% lower at 104.56.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, fell 0.06% to $81.06 per barrel.

On the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex was trading 1,912.00 points, or 2.59% higher at 75,873.31 points. The broader NSE Nifty soared 597.10 points or 2.65% to 23,127.80 points in initial trade.

Most of the exit polls on Saturday predicted that Prime Minister Narendra Modi will retain power for a third straight term, with the BJP-led NDA expected to win a big majority in the Lok Sabha elections.

The finance ministry on Saturday said the country’s Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections grew 10% to ₹1.73 lakh crore in May driven by an increase in domestic transactions, indicating a sustained economic momentum.

Foreign investors were net buyers of Indian equities on Friday as they purchased shares worth ₹1,613.24 crore on a net basis. FIIs bought shares worth ₹95,467.56 crore and sold equities worth ₹93,854.32 crore in one of the record foreign investor activities in the cash segment.

The government data released on Friday showed India’s economy grew by 8.2% in the fiscal year that ended in March, cementing the country’s position as the fastest-growing major economy in the world.

The Central government’s fiscal deficit during 2023-24 at 5.6% of the GDP was better than previous estimates of 5.8% on account of higher revenue realisation and lower expenditure, according to official data released on Friday.

The country’s forex reserves dropped by $2.027 billion to $646.673 billion for the week ended May 24, the Reserve Bank said on Friday. In the previous reporting week, the kitty had reached an all-time high of $648.7 billion after a jump of $4.549 billion.

File.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

The rupee pared initial gains and settled for the day 5 paise lower at 83.18 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on May 28, amid a negative trend in domestic equities and on dollar demand from importer at lower levels.

Forex traders said the rupee consolidated in a narrow range as elevated crude oil prices weighed on investor sentiments, while the decline in U.S. dollar cushioned the downside.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit traded in a narrow range. It opened at 83.14 and touched an intra-day high of 83.10 and a low of 83.19.

The domestic unit finally settled for the day at 83.18 (provisional), down 5 paise from its previous close.

On Monday, the rupee pared its initial gains and settled for the day lower by 3 paise at 83.13 against the U.S. dollar.

“We expect the rupee to trade with a slight positive bias as strength in the domestic markets and expectations of fresh foreign inflows may support the rupee,” said Anuj Choudhary, Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.

Softening of the U.S. Dollar may also support the local unit. However, a rise in crude oil prices may cap sharp upside.

“Investors may remain cautious ahead of core PCE price index data later this week. USDINR spot price is expected to trade in a range of Rs 82.90 to Rs 83.50,” Choudhary added.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 104.47, lower by 0.12%, as investors trimmed their positions ahead of inflation data.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, rose 0.18% to $83.25 per barrel.

On the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex declined 220.05 points, or 0.29%, to close at 75,170.45 points. The broader NSE Nifty fell 44.30 points, or 0.19%, to close at 22,888.15 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Monday, as they offloaded shares worth ₹541.22 crore, according to exchange data.

Image used for representational purpose.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

The rupee appreciated by 3 paise to 83.10 against the U.S. dollar on May 28, tracking a positive trend in domestic equities and weakness of the American currency in the overseas market.

Forex traders rupee is likely to trade with a positive bias tracking a positive trend in domestic equities and expectations of fresh foreign inflows, however, a recovery in crude oil prices may cap a sharp upside.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.14 and gained further ground to trade at 83.10 against the greenback, registering a gain of 3 paise from its previous closing level.

On Monday, the rupee pared its initial gains and settled for the day lower by 3 paise at 83.13 against the U.S. dollar.

The opening for the rupee on Tuesday was flattish and the $/₹ pair should move within a narrow range of 83.00 to 83.20, said Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director, Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP.

Importers need to keep buying in dips, as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may possibly not allow a big move downside for the pair, Mr. Bhansali added.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 104.42, lower by 0.12%.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, advanced 0.24% to $83.30 per barrel.

Going ahead, “the performance of Indian equities is expected to be a significant driver for the rupee, especially as investors position themselves ahead of the Lok Sabha election results scheduled for June 4,” said CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari.

Given these factors, the rupee is expected to appreciate to around 82.80–82.50 in the near term, with medium-term projections ranging between 82.20 and 82.00, Mr. Pabari added.

On the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex was trading 124.2 points, or 0.16% higher at 75,514.70 points. The broader NSE Nifty rose 47.95 points or 0.21% to 22,980.40 points in initial trade.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Monday, as they offloaded shares worth ₹541.22 crore, according to exchange data.