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The rupee consolidated in a narrow range and settled for the day 3 paise higher at 83.58 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on July 16, on firm domestic markets and sustained inflow of foreign capital.

Forex traders said a decline in crude oil prices favoured the rupee, while a strong U.S. dollar capped sharp gains.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.59, and touched an intraday high of 83.53 and a low of 83.60 against the dollar during the trading session.

It finally settled at 83.58 (provisional) against the American currency, registering a gain of 3 paise from its previous close.

On Monday, the rupee depreciated 10 paise to 83.61 against the U.S. dollar.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading marginally higher by 0.11% at 104.29.

“The U.S. dollar gained on positive U.S. markets and a surge in U.S. treasury yields on rising expectations that Donald Trump may be re-elected as the President of the United States in the upcoming elections in November,” said Anuj Choudhary – Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, were trading 0.68% lower at $84.27 per barrel.

“We expect the rupee to trade with a slight negative bias on the strong U.S. dollar and weak Asian currencies. However, a decline in crude oil prices and continued foreign inflows may support the rupee at lower levels,” Mr. Choudhary said, adding that any intervention by the RBI may also support the local unit.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex ended the day 51.69 points, or 0.06%, higher at 80,716.55 points. The broader NSE Nifty settled 26.30 points, or 0.11%, higher at 24,613.00 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Monday, as they purchased shares worth ₹2,684.78 crore, according to exchange data.

Meanwhile, India’s merchandise exports in June increased 2.56% to $35.2 billion despite global challenges, even as the trade deficit widened to $20.98 billion during the month.

On the price front, wholesale inflation in the country surged to a 16-month high of 3.36% in June on account of a rise in prices of food articles, especially vegetables and manufactured items.

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The rupee depreciated 3 paise to 83.48 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on April 30 amid a strong American currency against major Asian rivals and an upward movement in the crude oil prices.

However, positive sentiment in the domestic equity markets and some inflow of foreign capital in the Indian equities capped the fall in the Indian currency, forex traders said.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the domestic unit opened at 83.46 against the greenback and then slipped further to 83.48, registering a loss of 3 paise compared to its previous closing level.

On Monday, the rupee had settled 7 paise lower at 83.45 against the U.S. dollar.

Gaurang Somaiya, Forex and bullion analyst, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, said the rupee weakened amidst rising concerns that the U.S. Federal Reserve could delay interest rate cuts as the country’s inflation stayed above the Central bank’s 2% target.

“U.S. economy remains resilient and with a hawkish stance from the Fed, the dollar remains well supported at lower levels,” he said, adding that the USD-INR (Spot) is expected “to trade sideways with positive bias in a range of 83.20-83.50”.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting begins on Tuesday and the interest rate decision is expected to be announced on Wednesday.

Besides, market participants are expected to take cues from the U.S. consumer confidence index to be announced on Tuesday and the domestic manufacturing PMI data on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, rose 0.27% to 105.73.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, inched up 0.06% to $88.45 per barrel.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex was trading 135.59 points or 0.18% higher at 74,806.87. The broader NSE Nifty advanced 47.65 points or 0.21% to 22,691.05.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Monday, as they purchased shares worth ₹169.09 crore on a net basis, according to exchange data.

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The rupee rebounded from its all-time low levels and appreciated 12 paise to 83.49 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on April 18, supported by a firm trend in domestic equities and tracking gains in Asian currencies.

Forex traders said the local unit gained ground as the American currency retreated from its elevated levels.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.51 against the greenback. It later touched 83.49 in initial trade, registering a rise of 12 paise from its previous close.

On Tuesday, the rupee plunged 17 paise to hit its lowest level of 83.61 against the U.S. dollar for the second time in four weeks.

Forex and money markets were closed on Wednesday on account of ‘Ram Navami’.

The Indian rupee which closed at record lows on Tuesday opened around 83.51 this morning as Asian currencies gained a bit against the dollar, said Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director, Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP.

The rupee is likely to trade in the range of 83.45 to 83.65 as FPIs and oil companies buy dollars while RBI sells the American currency as it did on Tuesday when it might have intervened by $2 billion, Mr. Bhansali added.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 105.88, lower by 0.07%.

The dollar took a breather as traders assessed U.S. interest rates outlook in the wake of comments from Federal Reserve officials that cemented expectations of monetary settings being restrictive for longer, Mr. Bhansali added.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, rose 0.33% to $87.58 per barrel.

On the domestic equity market front, the 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 226.69 points or 0.31% to 73,170.37 in early trade. The NSE Nifty advanced 89.05 points or 0.45 to 22,236.95.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Tuesday as they offloaded shares worth ₹4,468.09 crore, according to exchange data.

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The rupee appreciated by 9 paise to 83.19 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on November 2, tracking its Asian peers as risk-on sentiments prevailed in the market as the U.S. Fed was a bit dovish in its policy meeting.

A weak U.S. dollar overseas and positive domestic equities supported the local unit in early trade, forex traders said.

The U.S. Fed kept interest rates on hold, and its chairman looked content with the economy’s soft landing. Following the decision, the dollar index softened, and the 10-year bond yield fell to 4.70.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the domestic unit opened at 83.23 against the dollar and then touched an early high of 83.19, registering a gain of 9 paise over its previous close.

On Wednesday, the rupee settled at 83.28 against the U.S. dollar. The local unit hit all-time low level of 83.35 against the American currency during intra-day.

“Asian currencies all gained against the dollar after the dovish FED as risk-on sentiments prevailed in the market. Brent oil rose slightly to $85.45 per barrel,” said Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director of Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP.

Mr. Bhansali noted that the rupee made a new closing low of 83.29/30 on demand from importers, FPI outflows and ECB redemptions.

“However, today’s opening is higher at 83.22 as FED was a bit dovish in its policy meeting,” he said.

The dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.51% lower at 106.34.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, rose 1.05% to $85.52 per barrel.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex was trading 568.23 points or 0.89% higher at 64,159.56. The broader NSE Nifty advanced 155.80 points or 0.82% to 19,144.95.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Wednesday as they sold shares worth ₹1,816.91 crore, according to exchange data.

Image used for representational purpose. V. Sudershan
| Photo Credit: V. Sudershan

The rupee paused its three-day downward move and settled flat at 83.25 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on October 27, as the support from positive domestic equities was negated by surging crude oil prices.

Forex traders said the rupee consolidated in a narrow range as selling pressure from foreign equity investors continued to weigh on the Indian currency.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.24 and traded in a narrow range of 83.22 to 83.25 before settling flat at Thursday’s closing level of 83.25 (provisional) against the greenback.

The rupee has dropped 8 paise against the dollar on Thursday, the third consecutive day of fall. It had declined 4 paise on Monday, followed by a dip of 1 paisa on Wednesday.

Forex markets were closed on Tuesday on account of Dussehra.

According to analysts, the dollar retreated as the U.S. Treasury yields dropped from its record levels after the U.S. GDP data, durable goods sales orders as well as home sales numbers exceeded the estimated growth.

Anuj Choudhary, Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas, said the dollar gained on robust economic data from the U.S.

“Dollar may strengthen on safe-haven demand on media reports that the U.S. military struck Iranian targets in Syria.

“However, the rise in risk appetite in global markets may support the rupee at lower levels. Traders may remain cautious ahead of core PCE price index and personal income data from the U.S. USD-INR spot price is expected to trade in a range of ₹82.90 to ₹83.60,” Mr. Choudhary added.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.06% lower at 106.54 on Friday.

Global oil price benchmark Brent crude witnessed a sharp rise of 2.39% to $90.03 per barrel.

On the domestic equity market front, Sensex surged 634.65 points or 1.01% to settle at 63,782.80. The Nifty climbed 190.00 points or 1.01% to 19,047.25.

Foreign Institutional Investors sold equities worth ₹7,702.53 crore on Thursday, according to exchange data.

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The rupee fell 2 paise to settle at 83.26 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on surging crude oil prices overseas and a downward trend in the domestic equities.

Forex traders said that positive macroeconomic data failed to rev up the local currency, which has been under pressure due to the elevated level of the dollar and sustained withdrawal of foreign funds.

Also read | Rupee trades flat at 83.24 against U.S. dollar in early trade

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 83.25 and traded in a narrow range before settling at 83.26 (provisional) against the greenback, 2 paise lower from its Thursday closing level.

According to the government data released on Thursday, India’s retail inflation moderated to a three-month low of 5% in September while factory output in August soared to a 14-month high of 10.4%.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.07% lower at 106.52.

Analysts said that the dollar index remained elevated above 106 after the U.S. data showed the country’s inflation slightly higher than estimated, raising expectations of further interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, witnessed a sharp rise of 2.97% to $88.55 per barrel.

On the domestic equity market front, the BSE Sensex closed 125.65 points or 0.195 lower at 66,282.74. The broader NSE Nifty declined 42.95 points or 0.225 to 19,751.05.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital market on Thursday as they offloaded shares worth ₹1,862.57 crore, as per exchange data.

The rupee depreciated 15 paise to close at 83.21 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday (October 3), as a strong U.S. dollar and weak domestic equities dented investor sentiments.

Forex traders said muted domestic macroeconomic data and sustained FII outflows also mounted downside pressure on rupee.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.21 against the U.S. dollar and moved in a range of 83.23 to 83.17.

The rupee finally settled at 83.21 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar, down 15 paise from its previous close.

On Friday, the rupee appreciated 13 paise to settle at 83.06 against the U.S. dollar.

On Monday, the domestic forex market was closed on account of Mahatma Gandhi Jayanti.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, rose by 0.14% to 104.05.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, declined 0.02% to #90.69 per barrel.

“We expect the rupee to trade with a negative bias as the hawkish Fed speak and a strong dollar may continue to put downward pressure on the rupee. Risk aversion in global markets may further weigh on the domestic currency,” said Anuj Choudhary – Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.

Mr. Choudhary further said that decline in crude oil prices and any selling of dollars by RBI may support rupee at lower levels.

“Traders may take cues from JOLTS job openings data from the U.S. Investors may remain cautious ahead of the RBI’s monetary policy meeting later this week. USD-INR spot price is expected to trade in a range of ₹82.80 to ₹83.70,” Mr. Choudhary said.

On the domestic equity market front, the 30-share BSE Sensex closed 316.31 points or 0.48% lower at 65,512.10. The broader NSE Nifty declined 109.55 points or 0.56% to 19,528.75.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital market on Friday as they offloaded shares worth ₹1,685.70 crore, according to exchange data.

Manufacturing activities in India fell to a five-month low in September as new orders rose at a softer pace, which tempered production growth, a monthly survey said on Tuesday.

The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 57.5 in September, down from 58.6 in August — the lowest in five months.

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The rupee declined by 20 paise to settle at 83.14 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on September 25 due to rising crude oil prices and a strong American currency against major rivals overseas.

Subdued equity markets and withdrawal of foreign funds also weighed on the domestic currency, forex traders said.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened weak at 83.04 and traded between a high of 83.04 and a low of 83.15 against the greenback.

It finally settled at 83.14 (provisional) against the dollar, registering a fall of 20 paise from the previous close.

On Friday, the rupee climbed 19 paise to close at 82.94 against the U.S. dollar.

Friday’s gain in the rupee was attributed to JP Morgan’s announcement that it will include Indian government securities in its global bond index starting June 2024, a move which is expected to bring in $25-30 billion of inflows into the Indian debt market.

On the other hand, the dollar strengthened due to an increased month-end demand of the American currency by importers and rising U.S. Treasury yield amid concerns of further interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Anuj Choudhary, Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas, said, “Indian rupee declined on Monday on a strong dollar and weak domestic equities. Selling pressure from FIIs also put downside pressure on the rupee. US.. dollar gained on hawkish FOMC last week”.

He said the rupee is likely to trade with a slight negative bias on strong dollar and risk aversion in global markets.

“FII outflows and elevated crude oil prices may put further downside pressure on the domestic currency. However, any intervention by the RBI may support the rupee at lower levels. $/₹spot price is expected to trade in a range of ₹82.75 to ₹83.60,” Mr. Chaudhary said.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, rose by 0.08% to 105.67.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, advanced 0.45% to $93.69 per barrel.

On the domestic equity market front, the BSE Sensex closed 14.54 points or 0.02% higher at 66,023.69. The broader NSE Nifty settled flat at 19,674.55.

India’s foreign exchange reserves declined by $867 million to $593.037 billion in the week ended September 15, the Reserve Bank said on Friday.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital market on Friday as they offloaded shares worth ₹1,326.74 crore, according to exchange data.

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The rupee appreciated by 38 paise to 82.75 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on September 22, as the inclusion of India in the JPMorgan bond index boosted investor sentiment.

Forex traders said the decision of JPMorgan Chase & Co to include Indian government bonds in its benchmark emerging-market index, is expected to have far-reaching implications for India’s debt market and global investors.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the domestic unit opened strong at 82.75, registering a gain of 38 paise from its previous close.

On Thursday, the rupee consolidated in a narrow range to settle 2 paise lower at 83.13 against the dollar.

India’s inclusion in a major global bond index will open doors to increased foreign investment in the nation’s debt market, traders said.

“The inclusion of India in the JPMorgan bond index has had a favourable effect on the rupee, with the currency showing strength by appreciating around 0.42% in the NDF markets and reaching levels around 82.80,” CR Forex Advisors MD-Amit Pabari said.

This positive momentum is anticipated to carry over to the onshore market, with a potential to move towards 82.50 in the next few sessions once 82.80 levels are taken out. The upside is likely to remain capped between 83.25-83.30 zone amid strong RBI intervention, Mr. Pabari added.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, rose 0.12% to 105.48.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, was trading 0.61% higher at $93.87 per barrel.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex was trading 22.14 points or 0.03% higher at 66,252.38 points. The broader NSE Nifty declined 3.65 points or 0.02% to 19,738.70.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital market on Thursday as they offloaded shares worth ₹3,007.36 crore, according to exchange data.