Forex traders said the rupee is likely to remain under pressure unless there is a softening in the dollar index or a slowdown in foreign fund outflows. File
| Photo Credit: The Hindu

Declining for the fourth straight session, the rupee dropped 2 paise to hit a new lifetime low of 84.39 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on Monday (November 11, 2024), weighed down by persistent foreign fund outflows and a muted trend in domestic equities.

Forex traders said the rupee is likely to remain under pressure unless there is a softening in the dollar index or a slowdown in foreign fund outflows.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 84.38 against the U.S. dollar. During the session, the local currency touched a high of 84.37 and a low of 84.39. It finally settled at 84.39 (provisional), registering a loss of 2 paise against its previous close.

On Friday (November 8, 2024), the rupee dropped 5 paise to hit the lowest level of 84.37 against the U.S. dollar, registering a decline for the third straight session.

In the last four sessions, the local unit has lost 30 paise against the greenback.

The USD-INR pair fell to a record low on Monday (November 11, 2024) as the U.S. dollar index strengthened on Donald Trump’s growth agenda optimism. Foreign investors, following an outflow of $11 billion in October, have withdrawn around $1.50 billion from Indian equities in November.

The Reserve Bank’s intervention may support the domestic currency. Moreover, traders look forward to the India and the U.S. CPI inflation data scheduled to be released this week, Praveen Singh — Associate VP, Fundamental Currencies and Commodities, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas, said, adding the domestic currency is expected to trade with a bearish tilt in the near future.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.29% higher at 105.30.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, fell 1.04% to $73.10 per barrel in futures trade.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex rose 9.83 points, or 0.01%, to close at 79,496.15 points, while Nifty fell 6.90 points, or 0.03%, to settle at 24,141.30 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Friday (November 8, 2024), as they offloaded shares worth ₹3,404.04 crore, according to exchange data.

Meanwhile, India’s forex reserves declined by $2.675 billion to $682.13 billion for the week ended November 1, the RBI said on Friday (November 8, 2024).

In the previous week, the overall reserves had dropped by $3.463 billion to $684.805 billion. At September-end, the reserves had hit an all-time high of $704.885 billion.

Image used for representative purpose only
| Photo Credit: C. Venkatachalapathy

Declining for the third straight session, the rupee dropped 5 paise to hit a new lifetime low of 84.37 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on Friday (November 8, 2024), weighed down by persistent foreign fund outflows and a muted trend in domestic equities.

Forex traders said the U.S. Federal Reserve’s recent decision to cut interest rates signals a shift in the global financial landscape. Moreover, with Donald Trump’s tax and trade policies influencing global markets, volatility could re-enter the rupee’s trajectory.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 84.32 against the U.S. dollar. During the session, the local currency touched a high of 84.31 and a low of 84.38. It finally settled at 84.37 (provisional), a loss of 5 paise against its previous close.

On Thursday, the rupee slipped 1 paisa to close at a fresh lifetime low of 84.32 against the U.S. dollar.

In the last three sessions, the local unit has lost 28 paise against the greenback.

The rupee hit a record low on account of extending sell-off in the domestic markets and continuous foreign fund outflows. Overnight gains in crude oil prices also weighed on the rupee, said Anuj Choudhary – Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.

However, the softening of the U.S. Dollar index cushioned the downside. The dollar softened as the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 bps in line with street estimates. The Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in his presser that the U.S. economy was strong and some downside risks seemed to have diminished.

In its latest monetary policy announcement, the U.S. Fed reduced its benchmark rate by 0.25 basis points to a target range of 4.5% – 4.75%.

In its accompanying statement, the Fed adopted a neutral-to-dovish tone, acknowledging balanced risks in inflation and employment.

“We expect the rupee to trade with a negative bias on overall strength in the US dollar and weak domestic markets. FII outflows may also weigh on the rupee. However, any intervention by the Reserve Bank may support the rupee at lower levels,” Mr. Choudhary added.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.01% lower at 104.50.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, fell 1.10% to USD 74.80 per barrel in futures trade.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex fell 55.47 points, or 0.07%, to close at 79,486.32 points, while Nifty declined 51.15 points, or 0.21%, to settle at 24,148.20 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Thursday, as they offloaded shares worth ₹4,888.77 crore, according to exchange data.