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The rupee depreciated 5 paise to 83.54 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on Thursday, weighed down by elevated crude oil prices.

Forex traders said a positive trend in domestic equities, wherein benchmark indices touched all-time high levels and significant foreign fund inflows supported the rupee and restricted the fall.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 83.52 and lost further ground to trade at 83.54 against the greenback in initial deals, registering a fall of 5 paise from its previous closing level.

On Wednesday, the rupee settled 1 paisa lower at 83.49 against the US dollar.

“Though the equity markets are shining bright, the Indian rupee has been trading flat to weaker, despite a drop in the dollar towards 105.04 and US 10-year yields touching 4.35 per cent, post the US service PMI data and ADP non-farm employment change data were weaker than expected,” CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari said.

According to Pabari, crude oil prices have risen nearing USD 87 per barrel and this acted as a counterweight, limiting the rupee’s gains.

“However, stronger fundamentals, robust inflows, and equity markets at an all-time high are clashing with temporary external pressures. As these external factors dissipate, the Indian Rupee is poised to gain strength,” Pabari added.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was at 105.36.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, declined 0.55 per cent to USD 86.86 per barrel.

In the domestic equity market, Sensex breached the historic 80,000-mark and Nifty scaled fresh lifetime highs in early trade. The BSE Sensex was trading 224.79 points, or 0.28 per cent higher at 80,211.59 points. The broader NSE Nifty advanced 67.80 points, or 0.28 per cent, to 24,354.30 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Wednesday, as they purchased shares worth Rs 5,483.63 crore, according to exchange data.

Meanwhile, according to an official of S&P Global Ratings, a sovereign rating upgrade for India in the next 24 months is possible if the central government is able to prudently manage its finances and bring down the fiscal deficit to 4 per cent of GDP.

S&P Global Ratings Director, Sovereign Ratings, YeeFarn Phua, said the trigger for an upgrade would be the government (Centre plus States) deficit falling below 7% of the GDP, and a lot of this would have to be driven by the central government.

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The rupee appreciated by 7 paise to 83.24 against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday amid softening crude oil prices in the international market.

Forex traders said the local unit faced some resistance due to subdued sentiment in the domestic equity market and foreign fund outflows.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.29 and inched up further to trade at 83.24 against the greenback, registering a gain of 7 paise from its previous closing level.

On Tuesday, the rupee appreciated 6 paise to close at 83.31 against the U.S. dollar.

“As the rupee seems to have started aligning with its fundamentals, in the short term, one can expect the Rupee to approach levels of 83.00 to 83.10, while the medium-term target is projected to range between 82.80 to 82.50 levels,” CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari said.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 104.63, lower by 0.02%.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, declined 0.65% to $82.34 per barrel.

On the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex was trading 37.12 points, or 0.05% lower at 73,916.19 points. The broader NSE Nifty was down 30.40 points, or 0.13%, to 22,498.65 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Tuesday, as they offloaded shares worth ₹1,874.54 crore, according to exchange data.

On the macroeconomic front, according to an article in the RBI’s May Bulletin released on Tuesday, India is likely to grow by 7.5% in the first quarter of the current financial year, driven by rising aggregate demand and non-food spending in the rural economy.

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| Photo Credit: The Hindu

The Rupee was trading in a narrow range and appreciated three paise to 83.25 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on October 19, amid a negative trend in domestic equities.

Forex traders said the Rupee is trading in a narrow range as sustained foreign fund outflows and strength of the American currency in the overseas market weighed on investor sentiments.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the domestic unit opened at 83.26 against the dollar and then touched an early high of 83.25, registering a gain of three paise over its previous close. On Wednesday, the Rupee settled at 83.28 against the U.S. dollar.

The dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.04% higher at 106.60. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, fell 0.55% to $91 per barrel.

Forex traders said crude oil prices fell as markets await further development from the Israel-Hamas war, while focus remained on upcoming signals from the U.S. Fed.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex was trading 435.23 points or 0.66% lower at 65,441.79. The broader NSE Nifty declined 131.00 points or 0.67% to 19,540.10.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on October 18 as they sold shares worth ₹1,831.84 crore, according to exchange data.

“FPIs continued their relentless selling in stocks and this buying of dollars from oil companies who due to steep rise in oil prices have been on the U.S. dollar buy side for the last one month keeping rupee in range as RBI sold dollars,” Anil Kumar Bhansali, head of Treasury and executive director at Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP, said.

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| Photo Credit: The Hindu

The Rupee witnessed range-bound trading against the U.S. dollar in early trade on October 9, weighed down by a negative trend in domestic equities and the strength of the American currency in the overseas market.

Forex traders said the safe-haven dollar gained ground amidst heightened concerns in the Middle East.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the Rupee opened at 83.24 against the dollar, then touched 83.23, registering a rise of four paise over its previous close. On Friday, the Rupee declined two paise to settle at 83.27 against the U.S. dollar.

The dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, advanced 0.26% to 106.32.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, advanced 3.69% to $87.70 per barrel. According to CR Forex Advisors MD-Amit Pabari, market sentiment turned delicate following clashes between Israeli forces and Hamas over the weekend, coinciding with a surprise attack by militants on Israel, marking the deadliest day of violence in the region in half a century.

“Global tensions propel safe-haven dollar, while RBI’s vigilant stance sparks currency market tug-of-war,” Mr. Pabari added.

“The USD/INR pair is encountering notable resistance at the 83.30 level, while concurrently finding support around 82.80. This creates a scenario akin to a tug-of-war, where a breach of either pivotal level could trigger a significant movement, with an estimated range of approximately one rupee in either direction,” he said.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex declined 274.33 points or 0.42% to 65,721.30. The broader NSE Nifty fell 84.10 points or 0.43% to 19,569.40.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital market on Friday as they offloaded shares worth ₹90.29 crore, according to exchange data.

“Meanwhile, India’s forex reserves dropped further by $3.794 billion to $586.908 billion for the week ended September 29,” the Reserve Bank said on Friday.

In the previous reporting week, the overall reserves had declined by $2.335 billion to $590.702 billion as of September 22.

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| Photo Credit: V. Sudershan

The rupee depreciated 17 paise to 83.23 against the US dollar in early trade on Tuesday, as a strong dollar and sustained foreign fund outflows weighed on investor sentiments.

Forex traders said a weak trend in domestic equities also dented investor sentiments.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the domestic unit opened at 83.21, then touched 83.23, registering a decline of 17 paise over its last close.

On Friday, the rupee appreciated 13 paise to settle at 83.06 against the US dollar.

On Monday, the domestic forex market was closed on account of Mahatma Gandhi Jayanti.

According to CR Forex Advisors MD-Amit Pabari, in response to potential risks, particularly the rupee’s vulnerability against the dollar, the RBI has engaged in strategic selling of dollars through public sector banks in recent trading sessions.

The intervention is expected to maintain a relatively stable trajectory for the rupee until the upcoming monetary policy decision on October 6, Pabari added.

The RBI Governor-headed six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is scheduled to meet for three days beginning October 4. Governor Skhatikanta Das will announce the decision on Friday (October 6).

Meanwhile, the dollar index rose 0.20% to 107.11.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, fell 0.90% to $89.89 per barrel.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex was trading 407.84 points or 0.62% lower at 65,420.57. The broader NSE Nifty fell 120.20 points or 0.61% to 19,518.10.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Friday, as they offloaded shares worth ₹1,685.70 crore, according to exchange data.

Meanwhile, the country’s foreign exchange reserves declined by $2.335 billion to $590.702 billion for the week ended September 22, the Reserve Bank said on Friday.

In the previous week, the overall reserves dropped by $867 million to $593.037 billion.

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The rupee depreciated 15 paise to 82.77 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on Monday as firm crude oil prices weighed on investor sentiments.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the domestic unit opened at 82.71, then touched 82.77, registering a decline of 15 paise over its last close.

On Friday, the rupee had settled at 82.62 against the dollar.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, fell marginally by 0.06% to 104.17.

“This week, services PMI and factory orders number from the US will be important to watch. Better-than-expected data could lift the dollar further higher,” said Gaurang Somaiya, forex and bullion analyst, Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

Somaiya further said, “We expect the USDINR (Spot) to trade sideways with a negative bias and quote in the range of 82.30 and 82.80.”

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, rose 0.01% to $88.56 per barrel on tighter supply outlook.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex was trading 137.71 points or 0.21% higher at 65,524.87. The broader NSE Nifty advanced 56.30 points or 0.29% to 19,491.60.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Friday as they purchased shares worth ₹487.94 crore, according to exchange data.

Meanwhile, India’s forex reserves dropped by $30 million to $594.858 billion in the week ended August 25, the Reserve Bank said on Friday.

In the previous week, the overall reserves had dropped by $7.273 billion to $594.888 billion.

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| Photo Credit: SUDERSHAN V

The rupee depreciated by 16 paise to settle at 82.79 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, tracking a firm American currency and rising crude oil prices.

Forex traders said that negative sentiment in the equity market and outflow of foreign funds also weighed on the domestic unit. Investors were also awaiting the domestic GDP data which is scheduled to be announced later in the day.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the domestic unit opened at 82.65 and moved between the peak of 82.58 and the lowest level of 82.76 during intra-day trade.

The Indian currency finally settled at 82.79 (provisional) against the dollar, registering a fall of 16 paise compared to the previous close.

On Wednesday, the rupee closed at 82.63 against the dollar.

The latest US data indicated that the pace of growth was less than expected, raising hopes for the easing of interest rates by the Federal Reserve.

“We expect the rupee to trade with a slight negative bias on expectations that the US dollar may bounce back amid disappointing European data. Rising crude oil prices and FII outflows may also weigh on the rupee. Month-end dollar demand from importers may also put downside pressure on the domestic unit. However, improved global risk appetite amid expectations of a Chinese stimulus may support riskier assets.

“Traders may remain cautious ahead of India’s fiscal deficit and GDP data today and manufacturing PMI data tomorrow. Investors may remain cautious ahead of the US core PCE deflator, weekly unemployment claims and personal income data today and non-farm payrolls report tomorrow,” Anuj Choudhary, Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas, said.

Meanwhile, the dollar index rose 0.37 per cent to 103.54.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, was trading 0.52% higher at $86.31 per barrel.

On the domestic equity market front, the BSE Sensex closed 255.84 points or 0.39% lower at 64,831.41 points while the Nifty declined by 93.65 points or 0.48% to end at 19,253.80 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital market on Wednesday as they offloaded shares worth ₹494.68 crore, according to exchange data.

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| Photo Credit: The Hindu

The Rupee recovered from its all-time low levels and appreciated by seven paise to 83.06 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on August 22, as the American currency retreated from its elevated levels.

Forex traders said the Rupee is trading in a narrow range as selling pressure by foreign investors dented sentiments, while the weak tone in the U.S. dollar and positive domestic markets cushioned the downside.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the domestic unit opened at 83.07, then touched a high of 83.06 against the American currency, registering a rise of seven paise over its last close. On Monday, the Rupee depreciated by three paise and settled for the day at an all-time low of 83.13 against the U.S. dollar.

“Rupee in the last one week has witnessed quite a bit of action but in the last couple of sessions it is consolidating in a narrow range and volatility has been low,” said Gaurang Somaiya forex and bullion analyst, Motilal Oswal Financial services.

Mr. Somaiya further added that the U.S. dollar too is retracing from higher levels after witnessing its longest winning streak in the last 15 months as it closed for the straight six weeks following safe haven buying on the back of uncertainty in China and better-than-expected economic numbers from the U.S.

The dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, fell 0.12% to 103.17. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, fell 0.17% to $84.32 per barrel.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex was trading 127.81 points or 0.20% higher at 65,343.90. The broader NSE Nifty advanced 41.90 points or 0.22% to 19,435.50.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Monday as they offloaded shares worth ₹1,901.10 crore, according to exchange data.