The rupee in tandem with Asian currencies fell to its support zone of 83.97 as the Reserve Bank of India seemed to present at 83.97 to protect against any further weakness in the currency. File
| Photo Credit: Venkatachalapathy C.

The rupee declined 5 paise to 83.96 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday (September 3, 2024), tracking a strong greenback against major currencies overseas and a sluggish trend in domestic equities.

However, lower crude oil prices in international markets capped the decline in the local unit, forex traders said.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened 3 paise lower at 83.94 against the American currency and traded in the range of 83.94-83.98 during the day.

It finally settled at 83.96 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar, 5 paise lower than its previous close.

On Monday (September 2, 2024), the domestic currency settled at 83.91.

“The rupee in tandem with Asian currencies fell to its support zone of 83.97 as the Reserve Bank of India seemed to present at 83.97 to protect against any further weakness in the currency. There was a good amount of FPI and oil companies outflow which resulted in the rupee reaching near to the all-time low of 83.97,” Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director of Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP, said.

Meanwhile, Sensex recovered most of its losses to settle at 82,555.44 for the day, 4.40 points below its previous close, while the Nifty inched up 1.15 points to 25,279.85.

The dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was up 0.15% at 101.80.

Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, declined 2.1% to 76.26 in futures trade.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Monday(September 2, 2024), as they purchased shares worth ₹1,735.46 crore, according to exchange data.

Image used for representative purpose only
| Photo Credit: Reuters

The rupee declined 4 paise to 83.95 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on Tuesday due to a stronger greenback in global markets and weak domestic manufacturing data.

A decline in the domestic equity market also contributed to the drop in the local unit, forex traders said.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 83.94, lower by 3 paise from its previous close before dropping further to 83.95. The unit had settled at 83.91 against the U.S. dollar on Monday.

“The rupee again extended its slide against the US dollar above 83.90 levels, slashing all previous week’s gains. With August proving to be a challenging month, the rupee ranked as the second-worst-performing currency in Asia,” CR Forex Advisors Managing Director Amit Pabari said.

The HSBC India Manufacturing PMI declining slightly to 57.5 in August and India’s economic growth falling to a 15-month low of 6.7% for the June quarter contributed to the drop in the local unit, he said.

Meanwhile, in the domestic equity markets, Sensex declined 78.28 points to 82,481.56 in early trade, while Nifty was down 23.6 points to 25,255.10.

The dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, rose 0.08% to 101.73 points.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, declined 0.31% to USD 77.28 per barrel in futures trade.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Monday, as they purchased shares worth ₹1,735.46 crore, according to exchange data.

“The rupee now finds itself in a delicate balance, caught in a tug-of-war between positive and negative factors. It has been trading within a tight range of 83.70 to 84.05, slipping by around 0.17% in August despite a notable correction in the dollar index,” Mr. Pabari said.

“The Reserve Bank of India’s active intervention has kept the rupee within this narrow band, and as long as the central bank maintains its grip, the rupee is likely to remain stable,” he added.

A cashier checks Indian rupee notes inside a room at a fuel station in Ahmedabad.
| Photo Credit: REUTERS

The rupee appreciated 10 paise to close at 83.87 (provisional) against the American currency on Thursday (August 29, 2024), supported by easing crude oil prices and a firm trend in domestic equities.

Forex traders said the market is awaiting cues from the U.S. GDP and the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation data, as this data point is crucial since it could sway the Federal Reserve’s decision on whether to implement a 25 or 50 basis point rate cut at its September meeting.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.92 and touched an intra-day high of 83.84 against the U.S. dollar.

The domestic currency finally settled at 83.87 (provisional), 10 paise higher from its previous close.

On Wednesday (August 28, 2024), the rupee depreciated 4 paise to close at 83.97 against the American currency.

According to Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst, Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities, the rupee gained 10 paise, as expectations of interest rate cuts continue to provide support, preventing the rupee from falling below 84.00.

“The strong demand around 84.00 keeps the rupee buoyant, with resistance seen at 83.75. The rupee is expected to trade in a positive range between 84.00-83.70,” Mr. Trivedi said.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.11% higher at 101.20.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, declined 0.34% to $78.38 per barrel.

On the domestic equity market front, Sensex rose 349.05 points, or 0.43%, to close at 82,134.61 points. The Nifty closed 99.60 points, or 0.4%, up at 25,151.95 points.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Wednesday, as they offloaded shares worth ₹1,347.53 crore, according to exchange data.

A customer holds a hundred rupees Indian currency notes near a roadside currency exchange stall in New Delhi, India, May 24, 2024.
| Photo Credit: REUTERS

The rupee depreciated 3 paise to close at 83.96 (provisional) against the American currency on Wednesday (August 28, 2024), amidst strong dollar demand from importers, particularly oil companies.

Forex traders said a positive trend in domestic equities, foreign fund inflows and overnight decline in crude oil prices cushioned the downside.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.94 and touched an intra-day low of 83.97 against the U.S. dollar.

The domestic currency finally settled at 83.96 (provisional), 3 paise lower from its previous close.

On Tuesday (August 27, 2024), the rupee depreciated by 6 paise to close at 83.93 against the American currency.

“We expect the rupee to trade with a slight negative bias on recovery in the US dollar and month-end dollar demand from oil marketing companies (OMCs) and importers,” said Anuj Choudhary— Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.

Choudhary further noted that a rise in global risk sentiments amid a dovish Fed speech and rising expectations of a rate cut by the U.S. Fed in September may support the rupee.

“Traders may remain cautious ahead of U.S. GDP and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data from the U.S. this week.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.36% higher at 100.91.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, declined 0.93% to $78.81 per barrel.

The Indian rupee turned flat at 83.94 against the US dollar in early trade on Friday (August 16, 2024) amid concerns over elevated crude oil prices and the outflow of foreign capital from domestic equity markets.

However, a positive sentiment in the domestic as well as global equity markets and a weak American currency supported the rupee, forex traders said.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 83.93 and slipped further to trade at its previous session’s closing level of 83.94 against the greenback.

On Wednesday (August 14, 2024) the rupee settled 3 paise higher at 83.94 against the US dollar. The forex markets were closed on Thursday on account of the Independence Day.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading marginally lower by 0.01 per cent at 102.80.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, declined 0.25 per cent to USD 80.84 per barrel.

On the domestic equity market front, Sensex surged 811.34 points, or 1.03 per cent, to 79,917.22 points. The broader Nifty also climbed 246.20 points, or 1.02 per cent, to 24,389.95 points.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Wednesday, as they offloaded shares worth Rs 2,595.27 crore, according to exchange data.

On the domestic macroeconomic front, wholesale inflation fell to a 3-month low of 2.04 per cent in July on the decline in prices of food items, especially vegetables, government data released on Wednesday showed.

The latest government data released on Wednesday showed India’s exports contracted 1.2 per cent to USD 33.98 billion in July, while the trade deficit widened to USD 23.5 billion.

The Indian rupee appreciated 7 paise to 83.90 against the US dollar in early trade on Wednesday (August 14, 2024), as the American currency retreated from its elevated levels.

Forex traders said the US dollar has weakened against majors post the US Producer Price Index (PPI) print, which came in softer than anticipated, leaving the Dollar Index vulnerable to further correction.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 83.90 against the greenback, registering a gain of 7 paise over its previous close.

On August 13, 2024, the rupee settled for the day on a flat note at 83.97 against the US dollar.

The Reserve Bank of India has been holding the 84.00 psychological mark, said Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP.

“The rupee is expected to open around 83.91 slightly stronger with a narrow range of 83.87/83.97, as the market awaits the Indian trade data for July-24,” Bhansali added.

Forex traders said market participants are also awaiting cues from the CPI data from the US scheduled to be released later in the day.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading marginally higher by 0.10 per cent at 102.66.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, advanced 0.57 per cent to USD 81.15 per barrel.

Rupee notes displayed at a roadside currency exchange stall in New Delhi. File photo
| Photo Credit: REUTERS

The rupee witnessed range-bound trading in initial deals against the US dollar on Monday (August 12, 2024), as market participants remained on the sidelines ahead of the release of key domestic macroeconomic data.

Forex traders said for the USD/INR pair 84.00 level is acting as a psychological resistance. Market participants are also awaiting cues from the Indian CPI inflation and IIP numbers scheduled to be released later in the day.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 83.95 against the greenback and traded in a tight range. In initial trade it touched 83.96, registering a fall of 1 paisa over its previous close.

On Friday, the rupee settled for the day higher by 2 paise at 83.95 against US dollar.

“The Indian rupee is expected to be calm as the Reserve Bank continues to buy dollars at lower levels and sell a smaller quantity to keep rupee in a small range,” Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP said.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) seems to be protecting 83.96 for now. Market also awaits for US CPI inflation data on Wednesday, Bhansali added.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.08 per cent higher at 103.22.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, advanced 0.18 per cent to USD 79.80 per barrel.

On the domestic equity market front, Sensex declined 269.65 points, or 0.34 per cent, to 79,436.26 points. The Nifty fell 74.65 points, or 0.31 per cent, to 24,292.85 points.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Friday as they purchased shares worth ₹406.72 crore, according to exchange data.

Meanwhile, India’s forex reserves jumped by USD 7.533 billion to a new record high of USD 674.919 billion for the week ended August 2, the Reserve Bank said on Friday (August 9, 2024).

The rupee finally settled at 83.96 (provisional) against the American currency, down 4 paise from its previous close. File
| Photo Credit: Reuters

The rupee consolidated in a narrow range and settled for the day lower by 4 paise at 83.96 (provisional) against U.S. dollar on Wednesday (August 7, 2024), weighed down by a recovery in the U.S. dollar and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Forex traders said the Indian rupee depreciated on Wednesday (August 7, 2024) on a strong U.S. dollar and positive crude oil prices. However, strength in the domestic markets cushioned the downside.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.86 and touched an intraday low of 83.97 against the dollar during the session. It finally settled at 83.96 (provisional) against the American currency, down 4 paise from its previous close.

On Tuesday (August 6, 2024), the rupee recovered from its all-time low level and settled for the day 17 paise higher at 83.92 against the U.S. dollar.

The local unit had slumped 37 paise to settle at an all-time low of 84.09 against the U.S. dollar on Monday (August 5, 2024).

“We expect the rupee to trade with a negative bias on a recovery in the U.S. dollar and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. However, positive global equities may support the rupee at lower levels,” said Anuj Choudhary – Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.

Any further intervention by the Reserve Bank may also support the rupee. Investors may watch out for RBI’s monetary policy decision. USD-INR spot price is expected to trade in a range of ₹83.75 to ₹84.20, Mr. Choudhary added.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, gained 0.31% to 103.28 points.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading 1.22% higher at USD 77.41 per barrel in futures trade.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex rose 874.94 points, or 1.11%, to close at 79,468.01 points, while the Nifty advanced 304.95 points, or 1.27%, to 24,297.50 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Tuesday (August 6, 2024) as they offloaded shares worth ₹3,531.24 crore, according to exchange data.

Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank’s rate-setting panel started its three-day deliberations for the next set of bi-monthly monetary policy on Tuesday (August 6, 2024) amid expectations of no change in benchmark interest rate in view of concerns on inflation and economic growth remaining steady.

The decision of the RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das-headed six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will be announced on Thursday (August 8, 2024).

Indian twenty rupee currency notes are displayed at a roadside currency exchange stall in New Delhi.
| Photo Credit: REUTERS

Rupee opened on a muted note and fell to an all-time low of 83.80 against the U.S. dollar on August 5, as the risk off situation in world markets kept the dollar well bid.

Forex traders said the sharp downfall in the domestic unit came on the heels of a significant downturn in the Indian equity markets and significant foreign fund outflows.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.78 and then fell to an all-time low of 83.80 against the American currency, registering a fall of 8 paise from its previous close.

On August 2, the rupee settled 1 paisa higher at 83.72 against the U.S. dollar in a range-bound trade.

Over the past week, major global equities experienced a significant sell-off. The release of last week’s U.S. Jobs Report, which fell significantly below expectations, sparked recession fears in the market, increasing demand for safe-haven assets.

Additionally, the upcoming U.S. elections in November are likely to keep investors on edge. Meanwhile, tensions are escalating in the Middle East following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.

The Indian rupee has remained largely south of the 83.70 level despite the weakening of the U.S. dollar. Additionally, oil prices saw an 11 per cent correction.

“However, despite these favourable conditions, the rupee has not appreciated, likely due to the Reserve Bank of India capping its movement. In the short term, the Rupee is expected to trade within the range of 83.75 to 83.90,” CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari said.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was at 102.95, lower by 0.24%.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, rose 0.30% to $77.04 per barrel.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex was trading 1533.11 points, or 1.89% lower at 79,448.84 points. The broader NSE Nifty was down 463.50 points, or 1.88%, to 24,254.20 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on August 2 as they offloaded shares worth ₹3310.00 crore, according to exchange data.

Image uswd for representative purpose only
| Photo Credit: R. Ragu

The rupee traded flat at 83.53 against the U.S. currency in early trade on July 12 amid firm crude oil prices and gains in domestic stocks.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened flat at 83.53 against the U.S. dollar. The local unit moved in a tight range of 83.50 to 83.54 in morning deals.

The rupee was trading flat at 83.53 against the U.S. dollar at 0935 hrs.

Forex dealers said the impact of firm crude oil prices was offset by overnight losses in the US dollar index and early gains in the domestic equity markets.

The U.S. dollar index eased on Thursday after softer US inflation data raised hopes of rate cut by the US Fed by September.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.05% lower at 104.49.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, were trading 0.20% higher at USD 85.60 per barrel.

Domestic equity markets were trading higher in early session on Friday. Benchmark Sensex climbed 226.11 points to 80,123.45 while broader Nifty was up 82.1 points to 24,398.05.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Thursday as they offloaded shares worth Rs 1,137.01 crore, according to exchange data.