The rupee pared its early gains to close lower by 1 paisa at 83.53 (provisional) against the US currency on Monday (September 23, 2024), snapping its six-day gaining streak due to a strengthening dollar in overseas markets and an uptick in crude oil prices.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

The rupee pared its early gains to close lower by 1 paisa at 83.53 (provisional) against the US currency on Monday (September 23, 2024), snapping its six-day gaining streak due to a strengthening dollar in overseas markets and an uptick in crude oil prices.

A decline in India’s Services PMI also affected the investor sentiment while gains in domestic equity markets capped losses in the local unit, forex traders said.

Earlier in the day, the rupee opened at 83.44 against the greenback, 8 paise higher than its previous close. However, it gave up gains during the day to finally settle at 83.53 (provisional) against the US dollar, 1 paisa lower than its previous close.

The rupee had closed at 83.52 on Friday.

“We expect the rupee to trade with a slight positive bias on positive global equities and fresh FII inflows. However, a recovery in the greenback and elevated crude oil prices may cap sharp upside,” Anuj Choudhary, Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas, said.

A decline in India’s Services PMI to 58.9 in August from 60.9 in July also contributed to the drop in the rupee, he said.

The dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was up 0.34 per cent at 101.06.

In the domestic equity markets, Sensex jumped 384.30 points to settle at an all-time high of 84,928.61 while Nifty climbed 148.10 points to a record peak of 25,939.05.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, advanced 0.26 per cent to USD 74.68 per barrel in futures trade.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Friday, as they purchased shares worth Rs 14,064.05 crore, according to exchange data.

“Investors may watch out for US GDP, consumer confidence and core PCE price index data from US this week. We expect USDINR to trade in the range of 83.35-83.75,” Choudhary added.

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| Photo Credit: Reuters

The rupee pared its initial losses and settled for the day on an almost flat note at 83.50 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on July 4, resisting pressure from elevated crude oil prices.

Forex traders said a positive trend in domestic equities, wherein benchmark indices touched all-time high levels, and significant foreign fund inflows supported the rupee and restricted the fall.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.52 and hit the intraday high of 83.48 and a low of 83.56 against the American currency during the session.

It finally settled at 83.50 (provisional) against the dollar, 1 paisa lower than its previous close.

On Wednesday, the rupee settled 1 paisa lower at 83.49 against the U.S. dollar.

“We expect the rupee to trade with a slight positive bias on softness in the US dollar amid weak economic data and rise in risk appetite in global markets,” said Anuj Choudhary – Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.

“However, elevated crude oil prices may limit the gains. Investors may remain cautious ahead of the U.S. non-farm payrolls report tomorrow,” Mr. Choudhary said, adding that $-₹ spot price is expected to trade in a range of ₹83.20 to ₹83.80.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.15% lower at 105.24.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, were trading 0.47% lower at $86.93 per barrel.

In the domestic equity market, Sensex breached the historic 80,000-mark and Nifty scaled a fresh lifetime high. The 30-share BSE Sensex ended the day 62.87 points, or 0.08%, up at its all-time high of 80,049.67 points. The broader NSE Nifty settled 15.65 points, or 0.06%, higher at a fresh peak of 24,302.15 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Wednesday, as they purchased shares worth ₹5,483.63 crore, according to exchange data.

Meanwhile, according to an official of S&P Global Ratings, a sovereign rating upgrade for India in the next 24 months is possible if the central government is able to prudently manage its finances and bring down the fiscal deficit to 4% of GDP.

S&P Global Ratings Director, Sovereign Ratings, YeeFarn Phua, said the trigger for an upgrade would be the government (Centre + states) deficit falling below 7 per cent of the GDP, and a lot of this would have to be driven by the central government.

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The rupee appreciated by 12 paise to 83.17 against the U.S. dollar on May 24, tracking a bullish trend in domestic equities, wherein benchmark indices scaled new peaks.

Forex traders attributed the rally to ₹2.11 lakh crore record dividend by the RBI to the government for the fiscal ended March 31. It was more than double the budgeted expectation, helping shore up revenue ahead of a new government taking office.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.26 and gained further ground to trade at 83.17 against the greenback, registering a gain of 12 paise from its previous closing level.

The forex market was closed on Thursday on account of ‘Buddha Purnima’.

On Wednesday, the rupee appreciated by 2 paise to settle at 83.29 against the U.S. dollar.

After a trading holiday on Thursday, the Indian rupee was on a strong footing following a big transfer of ₹2.11 lakh crore in the form of dividend from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to the Union government, which would improve not only government finances but also allow leverage to spend more on infrastructure, said Anil Kumar Bhansali Head of Treasury and Executive Director Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 105.11, higher by 0.01%.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, advanced 0.05% to $81.40 per barrel.

“The overall outlook for the rupee appears strongly positive, with the Nifty 50 reaching an all-time high. These factors indicate that India remains a focal point for investors, with potential for the rupee to appreciate.

“In the short term, the rupee is expected to approach levels of 83.00 to 83.10, while the medium-term target is projected to range between 82.80 and 82.50,” CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari said.

On the domestic equity market, both the benchmark indices scaled new peaks. The 30-share BSE Sensex was trading 51.21 points, or 0.07% higher at 75,469.25 points. The broader NSE Nifty breached the 23,000 level in initial trade.

Moreover, the market capitalisation of listed companies on the NSE surpassed $5 trillion (Rs 416.57 trillion) on Thursday on a day when the Nifty 50 index touched an all-time high of 22,993.60.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Thursday, as they purchased shares worth ₹Rs 4,670.95 crore, according to exchange data.

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| Photo Credit: Reuters

The rupee appreciated 3 paise to 83.42 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on May 6, supported by a firm trend in domestic equities.

Forex traders said the strength of the American currency in the overseas market and foreign fund outflows weighed on the local unit and restricted the up move.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.43 against the greenback. It later touched 83.42 in initial trade, registering a rise of 3 paise from its previous close.

On Friday, the rupee inched up 1 paisa to settle at 83.45 against the U.S. dollar.

Indian rupee has not been able to make a dent against the dollar as FPIs and oil companies continue to buy U.S. dollars and ensure it remains range bound, as RBI protects it from depreciation beyond 83.50, said Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 105.16, higher by 0.13%.

“The dollar was broadly steady as a soft U.S. jobs report boosted traders that the U.S. may still cut rates twice in 2024,” Mr. Bhansali said.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, rose 0.23% to $83.15 per barrel.

On the domestic equity market front, the 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 434.04 points or 0.59% to 74,312.19 in early trade. The NSE Nifty advanced 91.60 points or 0.41% to 22,567.45 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Friday, as they offloaded shares worth ₹2,391.98 crore, according to exchange data.

Meanwhile, India’s forex reserves dropped $2.412 billion to $637.922 billion as on April 26, in the third consecutive weekly decline in the reserves, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said on Friday.

In the previous reporting week, the overall reserves had declined $2.28 billion to $640.33 billion.

The rupee paused its three-day slide and inched up 2 paise to 83.23 against the U.S. dollar
| Photo Credit: SUDERSHAN V

The rupee paused its three-day slide and inched up 2 paise to 83.23 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on Friday amid positive cues from the domestic equity markets and a weak American currency overseas.

An upward trend in the crude oil prices and selling pressure from foreign equity investors continued to weigh on the Indian currency, forex traders said.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.24 and gained further to reach 83.23 against the greenback, up 2 paise from its previous close.

The rupee settled 8 paise lower at 83.25 against the dollar on Thursday, the third consecutive day of fall. It had dropped 4 paise on Monday, followed by a dip of 1 paisa on Wednesday when it closed at 83.17 against the dollar. Forex markets were closed on Tuesday on account of Dussehra.

According to analysts, the dollar retreated as the U.S. Treasury yields dropped from its record levels after the U.S. GDP data, durable goods sales orders as well as home sales numbers exceeded the estimated growth.

Besides, the European Central Bank’s decision to leave the benchmark interest rate unchanged also came on expected lines, they said.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.03 per cent lower at 106.57 on Friday.

Global oil price benchmark Brent crude witnessed a sharp rise of 1.27 per cent to $89.05 per barrel.

On the domestic equity market front, the Sensex climbed 272.63 points or 0.43 per cent to 63,420.78 while the broader Nifty rose 88.20 points or 0.47 per cent to 18,945.45.

Foreign Institutional Investors sold equities worth ₹7,702.53 crore on Thursday, according to exchange data.

The rupee paused its two days of gains and settled 6 paise lower at 83.24 against the U.S. dollar
| Photo Credit: SUDERSHAN V

The rupee paused its two days of gains and settled 6 paise lower at 83.24 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on Thursday as rising crude oil prices dented the investor sentiment.

Forex analysts said early gains in the domestic currency on the back of the weak dollar were reversed by the subdued domestic equity markets and concerns over foreign funds withdrawal.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 83.17 and then traded between the intra-day peak of 83.12 and the lowest level of 83.25 against the greenback. The local unit finally settled at 83.24 (provisional), registering a loss of 6 paise from its previous close.

The rupee had settled 7 paise higher on Wednesday, a day after gaining 3 paise against the American currency.

Market participants were also awaiting the industrial production data for August and inflation numbers for September to be released later in the day, which will provide insights into the country’s economic health.

Anuj Choudhary, Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas, said the rupee is expected to trade with a slight positive bias on expectations of a decline in India’s inflation and a rise in risk appetite in global markets.

“Traders may remain cautious ahead of India’s CPI and IIP data. Traders may also take cues from U.S. CPI, weekly unemployment claims and Federal Budget balance data. USD-INR spot price is expected to trade in a range of ₹82.70 to ₹83.60,” Mr. Choudhary added.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.09 per cent lower at 105.72.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, witnessed a sharp rise of 1.20 per cent to $86.85 per barrel.

On the domestic equity market front, the BSE Sensex closed 64.66 points or 0.10 per cent lower at 66,408.39. The broader NSE Nifty declined 17.35 points or 0.09 per cent to 19,794.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital market on Wednesday as they offloaded shares worth ₹421.77 crore, as per exchange data.

The rupee settled flat at 83.27 against the U.S. dollar
| Photo Credit: SUDERSHAN V

The rupee settled flat at 83.27 against the U.S. dollar amid a weak trend in domestic equities and surging crude oil prices in the international markets.

Forex traders said the safe-haven dollar gained ground amidst heightened concerns in the Middle East.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the domestic unit opened at 83.24 and finally settled at 83.27 against the American currency.

During the day, the rupee witnessed an intra-day high of 83.21 and a low of 83.28 against the greenback.

On Friday, the rupee declined 2 paise to settle at 83.27 against the U.S. dollar.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.43 per cent higher at 106.49.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, rose 3.29 per cent to $87.36 per barrel.

Amid escalating Israel-Hamas conflict heavily impacted risk assets, said Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director, Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP.

The market focus is currently on the fighting and how it could affect the oil market on supply concerns, Bhansali said, adding that accordingly, risky assets were sold off and so was the rupee though well controlled by the RBI.

The market is awaiting FOMC meeting minutes due on Wednesday, while important data due Tuesday are speeches by the ECB president and IMF/World Bank meetings, Mr. Bhansali said.

On the domestic equity market front, the BSE Sensex closed 483.24 points or 0.73 per cent lower at 65,512.39. The broader NSE Nifty declined 141.15 points or 0.72 per cent to 19,512.35.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital market on Friday as they offloaded shares worth ₹90.29 crore, according to exchange data.

Meanwhile, India’s forex reserves dropped further by $3.794 billion to $586.908 billion for the week ended September 29, the Reserve Bank said on Friday.

In the previous reporting week, the overall reserves had declined by $2.335 billion to $590.702 billion as of September 22.

The rupee depreciated 15 paise to close at 83.21 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday (October 3), as a strong U.S. dollar and weak domestic equities dented investor sentiments.

Forex traders said muted domestic macroeconomic data and sustained FII outflows also mounted downside pressure on rupee.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.21 against the U.S. dollar and moved in a range of 83.23 to 83.17.

The rupee finally settled at 83.21 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar, down 15 paise from its previous close.

On Friday, the rupee appreciated 13 paise to settle at 83.06 against the U.S. dollar.

On Monday, the domestic forex market was closed on account of Mahatma Gandhi Jayanti.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, rose by 0.14% to 104.05.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, declined 0.02% to #90.69 per barrel.

“We expect the rupee to trade with a negative bias as the hawkish Fed speak and a strong dollar may continue to put downward pressure on the rupee. Risk aversion in global markets may further weigh on the domestic currency,” said Anuj Choudhary – Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.

Mr. Choudhary further said that decline in crude oil prices and any selling of dollars by RBI may support rupee at lower levels.

“Traders may take cues from JOLTS job openings data from the U.S. Investors may remain cautious ahead of the RBI’s monetary policy meeting later this week. USD-INR spot price is expected to trade in a range of ₹82.80 to ₹83.70,” Mr. Choudhary said.

On the domestic equity market front, the 30-share BSE Sensex closed 316.31 points or 0.48% lower at 65,512.10. The broader NSE Nifty declined 109.55 points or 0.56% to 19,528.75.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital market on Friday as they offloaded shares worth ₹1,685.70 crore, according to exchange data.

Manufacturing activities in India fell to a five-month low in September as new orders rose at a softer pace, which tempered production growth, a monthly survey said on Tuesday.

The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 57.5 in September, down from 58.6 in August — the lowest in five months.

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| Photo Credit: Reuters

The rupee recovered from its all-time low levels and appreciated by 7 paise to 83.02 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on August 18 as the American currency retracted from its elevated levels.

However, a muted trend in domestic equities, foreign fund outflows and rising crude oil prices weighed on the domestic unit, forex traders said.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the domestic unit opened at 83.03, then touched a high of 83.02 against the American currency, registering a rise of 7 paise over its last close.

In initial trade the rupee also touched a low of 83.09 against the American currency.

On Thursday, the rupee settled for the day lower by 1 paisa at a fresh all-time low of 83.09 against the U.S. dollar.

Forex traders said rupee is likely to trade with a negative bias on risk aversion in global markets and firm U.S. dollar.

The dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, fell 0.26% to 103.30.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, rose 0.07% to $84.18 per barrel.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex was trading 206.61 points or 0.32% lower at 64,944.41. The broader NSE Nifty declined 67.95 points or 0.35% to 19,297.30.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Thursday as they offloaded shares worth ₹1,510.86 crore, according to exchange data.