Image for representational purposes only.
| Photo Credit: REUTERS

The rupee traded in a narrow range to settle 4 paise higher at 83.95 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on Thursday (September 12, 2024) amid a positive trend in domestic equities and foreign fund inflows.

Forex traders said the rupee trade was range-bound, with a slight positive bias toward positive domestic equities. However, a rebound in the U.S. Dollar and a surge in crude oil prices capped sharp gains.

The USD/INR pair traded within a well-defined range on active intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), they added.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.97 and witnessed an intraday high of 83.95 and a low of 83.99 against the American currency.

The domestic unit finally settled for the day at 83.95 (provisional), higher by 4 paise over its previous close.

On Wednesday (September 11, 2024), the rupee settled 1 paisa lower at 83.99 against the American currency.

“We expect the rupee to trade with a slight negative bias on the positive U.S. Dollar and a recovery in crude oil prices. However, a rise in risk appetite in global markets may support the rupee. Any intervention by the RBI may support the rupee at lower levels,” said Anuj Choudhary – Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.

Mr. Choudhary further noted that traders may take cues from India’s CPI data and European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy. Investors may remain cautious ahead of the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting next week.

Forex traders said risk sentiment has improved after the U.S. August CPI data. The U.S. headline CPI came in lower than expectations at 2.5% year-on-year. Core CPI came in line with expectations at 3.2%.

The stability in the U.S. CPI data helped the dollar index maintain its current levels.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was up 0.06% to 101.74 points.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, gained 1.71% to $71.82 per barrel in futures trade.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex advanced 1439.55 points, or 1.77%, to close at 82,962.71 points, while the Nifty climbed 470.45 points, or 1.89%, to 25,388.90 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Wednesday, as they purchased shares worth ₹1,755.00 crore, according to exchange data.

The rupee witnessed range-bound trade and settled for the day on a flat note at 83.98 (provisional) against U.S. dollar on Wednesday (September 11, 2024) as the support from the lower level of crude oil prices and soft US dollar was negated by a weak trend in domestic equities.

Forex traders said significant corrections in asset classes like the dollar index and crude oil prices supported the rupee, while a negative trend in domestic equities and concerns over global economic growth capped the upside.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit moved in a narrow range. It opened at 83.97 against the American currency and touched an intraday high of 83.93 and a low of 83.98 against the American currency.

The rupee finally settled for the day at 83.98 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar.

On Tuesday, the rupee depreciated 3 paise to close at 83.98 against the American currency.

“Indian rupee continued to remain range-bound stuck in a 83.90-84 range supported by active interventions from RBI at lower levels along with declining crude oil prices also capping the upside in same,” said Maneesh Sharma, AVP – Commodities & Currencies, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers.

Sharma further noted that rupee’s minimal volatility is also attributed to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) maintaining long-term interest rate pauses and building record foreign exchange reserves.

“Overall rupee is expected to maintain a trading range of 83.90-84.10 in the week ahead with minimal volatility with cues from US CPI & ECB interest rate decision in coming days to provide further direction to currency pair,” Sharma added.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was down 0.23% to 101.39 points.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, was trading higher by 2.44% to $70.88 per barrel in futures trade.

Forex traders said crude oil level of $70 per barrel will act as a support for the domestic unit as India, the world’s third-largest oil importer, stands to benefit from cheaper oil.

On the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex declined 398.13 points, or 0.49%, to 81,523.16 points, while the Nifty was down 122.65 points, or 0.49%, to 24,918.45 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Tuesday, as they purchased shares worth ₹2,208.23 crore, according to exchange data.

Exchange Data said that FIIs bought equities worth ₹2,208.23 crore on Tuesday (September 10, 2024). File
| Photo Credit: Reuters

Equity benchmark indices declined in early trade on Wednesday (September 11, 2024) after two days of gains amid selling in Tata Motors and weak trends in Asian markets.

The 30-share BSE Sensex fell 111.85 points to 81,809.44. The NSE Nifty dipped 39.2 points to 25,001.90.

Among the 30 Sensex firms, Tata Motors, ICICI Bank, Titan, HDFC Bank, JSW Steel, Tech Mahindra, UltraTech Cement and Axis Bank were the major laggards.

Asian Paints, Bharti Airtel, ITC and Hindustan Unilever were among the gainers.

In Asian markets, Seoul, Tokyo, Shanghai and Hong Kong were trading lower.

The U.S. markets ended mostly with gains on Tuesday (September 10, 2024).

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) bought equities worth ₹2,208.23 crore on Tuesday (September 10, 2024), according to exchange data.

Global oil benchmark Brent crude climbed 0.59% to $69.60 a barrel.

The BSE benchmark climbed 361.75 points or 0.44% to settle at 81,921.29 on Tuesday (September 11, 2024). The NSE Nifty surged 104.70 points or 0.42% to 25,041.10.

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| Photo Credit: Reuters

The rupee gained 2 paise to close at 83.95 (provisional) against the US dollar on Friday (September 6, 2024) amid a weak greenback in overseas markets.

However, negative domestic markets, rise in crude oil prices, and outflow of foreign capital capped sharp gains, forex traders said.

At the interbank currency market, the local unit opened at 83.97 and witnessed an intra-day high of 83.91 against the American currency.

The unit, which traded in the range of 83.91-83.97, finally settled at 83.95 (provisional), registering a gain of 2 paise. It had closed at 83.97 on Tuesday.

“Indian rupee recovered today on weak US dollar. However, weak domestic markets capped sharp gains,” Anuj Choudhary, Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas, said.

“We expect rupee to trade with a slight negative bias on weak global equities and concerns over global economic growth,” he said, adding that the USD-INR spot price is expected to trade in a range of ₹83.70 to ₹84.20.

Traders may take cues from non-farm payrolls report and speeches by the US Federal Reserve’s rate-setting panel members, he added.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was down 0.14% to 100.96 points.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, gained 0.58% to $73.11 per barrel in futures trade.

In the domestic equity markets, Sensex tanked 1,017.23 points to settle at 81,183.93, while Nifty slumped 292.95 points to 24,852.15.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Thursday, as they offloaded shares worth ₹688.69 crore, according to exchange data.

We expect the rupee to trade with a slight positive bias as domestic markets are trading at fresh record highs with fresh FII inflows. File
| Photo Credit: Raghunathan S.R.

The rupee declined 7 paise to close at 83.92 (provisional) against the greenback on Monday (September 2, 2024) on disappointing domestic macroeconomic data.

However, positive domestic markets, wherein both the benchmark indices scaled lifetime high levels and foreign fund inflows cushioned the downside.

Moreover, easing crude oil prices and weakness of the American currency in the overseas market supported the local unit and restricted further slide.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened 2 paise lower at 83.87 against the American currency. It rose to the intra-day high of 83.85 but pared gains and slipped to the day’s low of 83.93 before settling at 83.92 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar, registering a decline of 7 paise over its previous close.

“Indian rupee depreciated by 7 paise on Monday (September 2, 2024) on positive U.S. Dollar and disappointing macroeconomic data,” said Anuj Choudhary, Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.

India’s manufacturing sector growth moderated in August as output and sales rose at slowest rates since January, while competitive pressures and inflation concerns hampered business confidence, a monthly survey said on Monday (September 2, 2024).

The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) stood at 57.5 in August, below July’s reading of 58.1.

“We expect the rupee to trade with a slight positive bias as domestic markets are trading at fresh record highs with fresh FII inflows. A weak tone in crude oil prices may also support the rupee. However, any recovery in the U.S. Dollar may cap sharp upside,” Mr. Choudhary added.

Meanwhile, in the domestic equity markets, Sensex climbed 194.07 points to settle at a new all-time closing high of 82,559.84, while Nifty rose 42.80 points to hit its fresh record peak of 25,278.70.

The dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, dipped marginally by 0.06% to 101.64.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell 0.23% to 76.75 in futures trade.

On the domestic macroeconomic front, gross goods and services tax (GST) collections in August grew 10% to about ₹1.75 lakh crore on Sunday (September 1, 2024), reflecting higher domestic consumption.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Friday (August 30, 2024), as they purchased shares worth ₹5,318.14 crore, according to exchange data.

Meanwhile, the Centre’s fiscal deficit at the end of the first four months of the current fiscal year touched 17.2% of the full-year target, according to data released by the Controller General of Accounts (CGA).

India’s forex reserves jumped USD 7.023 billion to touch a new high of USD 681.688 billion in the week ended August 23, according to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data released on Friday (August 30, 2024).

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| Photo Credit: Reuters

Rupee declined 3 paise to hit 83.88 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on Monday (September 2, 2024) amid fluctuating crude oil prices.

Forex traders said volatility in the international dollar trade and limited movement in the Brent crude rates contributed to the decline in the domestic currency in early trade.

The positive domestic equity market, inflow of foreign fund and weak greenback capped the rupee’s fall, according to forex traders.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened 2 paise lower at 83.87 against the American currency and inched up to touch Friday’s closing rate of 83.85 before slipping again.

Currency traders are awaiting the PMI manufacturing data set to be released later in the day.

The rupee rose 4 paise on Friday to close at 83.85 against the U.S. currency.

Meanwhile, Sensex and Nifty hit fresh all-time high levels in early trade on Monday. While Sensex rose 164.2 points to 82,527.60, Nifty was up 55.2 points to reach 25,291.10.

The dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, remained flat at 101.69 points.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, declined 0.87% to $76.26 per barrel in futures trade.

“Brent oil extended losses on Monday with investors weighing higher OPEC+ production from October against a sharp drop in output from Libya and sluggish demand from China and the US, the world’s two biggest oil consumers,” Anil Kumar Bhansali Head of Treasury and Executive Director, Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP, said.

Gross GST collections in August grew 10 per cent to about ₹1.75 lakh crore on Sunday, reflecting higher domestic consumption.

India’s forex reserves jumped $7.023 billion to touch a new high of $681.688 billion in the week ended August 23, according to the Reserve Bank of India data released on Friday.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Friday, as they purchased shares worth ₹5,318.14 crore, according to exchange data.

Meanwhile, the Centre’s fiscal deficit at the end of the first four months of the current fiscal touched 17.2% of the full-year target, according to data released by the Controller General of Accounts (CGA).

A customer holds a hundred rupees Indian currency notes near a roadside currency exchange stall in New Delhi, India, May 24, 2024.
| Photo Credit: REUTERS

The rupee depreciated 3 paise to close at 83.96 (provisional) against the American currency on Wednesday (August 28, 2024), amidst strong dollar demand from importers, particularly oil companies.

Forex traders said a positive trend in domestic equities, foreign fund inflows and overnight decline in crude oil prices cushioned the downside.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.94 and touched an intra-day low of 83.97 against the U.S. dollar.

The domestic currency finally settled at 83.96 (provisional), 3 paise lower from its previous close.

On Tuesday (August 27, 2024), the rupee depreciated by 6 paise to close at 83.93 against the American currency.

“We expect the rupee to trade with a slight negative bias on recovery in the US dollar and month-end dollar demand from oil marketing companies (OMCs) and importers,” said Anuj Choudhary— Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.

Choudhary further noted that a rise in global risk sentiments amid a dovish Fed speech and rising expectations of a rate cut by the U.S. Fed in September may support the rupee.

“Traders may remain cautious ahead of U.S. GDP and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data from the U.S. this week.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.36% higher at 100.91.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, declined 0.93% to $78.81 per barrel.

File image.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

Rupee depreciated 2 paise to 83.95 against the US dollar in morning trade on Wednesday (August 28, 2024), weighed down by a muted trend in domestic equities.

Forex traders said from a macroeconomic standpoint, the rupee’s downside appears well-contained, with the 84-level acting as a crucial support, likely bolstered by expected RBI intervention to prevent further depreciation.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.94, then lost further ground and touched 83.95, registering a loss of 2 paise from its previous close.

On Tuesday, the rupee depreciated by 6 paise to close at 83.93 against the American currency.

According to CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari the Reserve Bank’s interventions not only seem to limit the rupee’s downside but also cap its appreciation.

“This was evident earlier in the week when, despite significant dollar weakness, the rupee remained steady, unlike other emerging market currencies that experienced notable gains,” Pabari said.

The rupee is expected to trade within a narrow range in the near term, with an upside limit around 83.80 and solid support near 84.05, with a broader range of 83.60 to 84.05 in the medium term, Pabari added.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, gained 0.17 % to 100.72 points.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, gained 0.14% to $79.66 per barrel in futures trade.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex fell 43.51 points, or 0.05%, to 81,668.25 points, while the Nifty was down by 21.85 points, or 0.09%, to 24,995.90 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Tuesday, as they purchased shares worth Rs 1,503.76 crore, according to exchange data.

File image.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

The rupee depreciated by 5 paise to close at 83.92 (provisional) against the American currency on Tuesday (August 27, 2024), on overnight jump in crude oil prices and a surge in commodity prices.

However, positive domestic markets and a soft US dollar cushioned the downside, forex traders said.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.91 and touched an intra-day low of 83.95 against the U.S. dollar.

The domestic currency finally settled at 83.92 (provisional), 5 paise lower from its previous close.

On Monday, the Indian rupee settled for the day 3 paise higher at 83.87 against the American currency.

“We expect the rupee to trade with a slight positive bias on rise in global risk sentiments amid dovish Fed speak and rising expectations of a rate cut by the Fed in September.

“However, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and rising crude oil prices may cap sharp upside. Traders may take cues from US consumer confidence data,” Anuj Choudhary, Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas, said.

Forex traders said the rupee is likely to remain within a narrow range as the Reserve Bank of India has been actively intervening in the market, consistently absorbing inflows.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.05% lower at 100.79.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, declined 0.87% to $80.72 per barrel.

On the domestic equity market front, Sensex rose 13.65 points, or 0.02%, to close at 81,711.76 points. The Nifty closed 7.15 points, or 0.03%, up at 25,017.75 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Monday, as they purchased shares worth ₹483.36 crore, according to exchange data.

Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Monday said the central bank is constantly working on policies, systems, and platforms to make the country’s financial sector strong, nimble and customer centric.

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| Photo Credit: Reuters

Rupee appreciated 10 paise to 83.80 against the U.S. dollar in morning trade on Monday (August 26, 2024), supported by the weakening of the American currency in the overseas market and foreign fund inflows.

Forex traders said the dollar index lost significant ground and is hovering around the 100.60 level following US Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s recent speech at the Jackson Hole meeting, where he said that time has come for loosening of policy, indicating possible US rate cuts in September.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.83 and then gained ground and touched 83.80, registering a rise of 10 paise from its previous close.

On Friday, the rupee traded in a narrow range and settled higher by 3 paise at 83.90 against the American currency.

Rupee opened on a positive note and was hovering around 83.80 this morning as the U.S. dollar has lost against most currencies, said Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP.

“It is expected to be in a range of 83.75/95 with the Reserve Bank buying dollars at lower levels of the pair and selling near 83.95,” Bhansali added.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was down 0.06% to 100.66 points.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was 0.63% up at $79.52 per barrel in futures trade.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex gained 262.21 points, or 0.32%, to 81,348.42 points, while the Nifty rose by 62.15 points, or 0.25%, to 24,885.30 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Friday, as they purchased shares worth ₹1,944.48 crore, according to exchange data.

Meanwhile, India’s forex reserves jumped by $4.546 billion to $674.664 billion during the week ended August 16, the RBI said on Friday. In the previous week, the forex kitty had dropped by $4.8 billion to $670.119 billion.