Within the span of two weeks, Georgia and Moldova, two former Soviet Union states, went to the polls in what has been billed as a contest between Russia and the West. With Moldova scheduled to hold a run-off on November 3, the results of the Georgian elections spawned protests, claims of Russian interference and allegations of voter fraud, and have been contested.

When citizens of the Caucasus country cast their ballots on October 26, pollsters had predicted the fall of the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party. Defying expectations, the country’s electoral authority proclaimed victory for the pro-Moscow party, citing its 54% vote share.

Despite street protests, and the U.S., EU and NATO coming together to condemn the outcome, the electoral body refused to budge. Neither was it fazed by statements from the country’s pro-Europe President Salome Zurabishvili who declared the results illegitimate and levelled claims of a ‘Russian special operation’. The poll agency said that a partial recount at 12% of polling stations involving 14% of the votes showed no significant deviation. “Final tallies only slightly changed at some 9% of recounted polling stations,” it said.

Opposition parties have cited Edison Research and HarrisX, two U.S.-based poll firms, whose projections had put the Georgian Dream’s vote share below 45%. HarrisX called the final results ‘statistically impossible’ while Edison’s flagged manipulation of the vote.

Cementing the opposition’s case further was the arrest of two persons by the Interior Ministry for ballot stuffing, and 47 criminal cases of electoral violations.

From the outset, these may seem like sufficient grounds to suspect foul play by the Georgian Dream. However, western officials have stopped short of declaring the election stolen or calling for a boycott of the results. Russia, meanwhile, has asked to respect the will of the Georgian people.

Whether Russia meddled in the elections will only be revealed over time. Nevertheless, having gained independence in 1991 and fought a five-day war in 2008 that saw the ceding of 20% of its territory, both Georgia’s history and geography have been intertwined with those of its larger neighbour. With Ukraine and its developments since 2014 proving to be a textbook, the Georgian Dream perhaps realised that the country’s future too was tied to Russia and began aligning its policies so as to not upset the Eurasian giant.

Established in 2012 by businessman Bidzina Ivanishvili, the Georgian Dream won the elections of that year by forming a coalition with an eclectic group of pro-Western liberal and anti-NATO nationalist parties. It has retained power ever since and even did so in 2020 without support from other parties.

Before the elections, opinion polls had shown that in the country of 3.7 billion people, citizens, especially the urban youth, nursed ambitions of joining the EU. But for those in rural areas and haunted by the horrors of war, peace is the aspirational quotient.

Capitalising on these fears, the Georgian Dream tailored an election campaign, putting up billboards that contrasted the horrors of the Ukraine war against the stability offered by the ruling government. Conspiracy theories about a ’Global War Party’ also began doing the rounds.

After the publication of results, a report by Edison Research said that “the deviation from expected results was most pronounced at specific polling locations in rural areas” while a Reuters report stated that the Georgian Dream drew 90% votes in rural areas.

Starting with its refusal to impose sanctions on Russia, the Georgian Dream has carefully pulled the country away from the EU to Russia’s orbit. Two recent legislations — a foreign influence law modelled after a Russian Bill and an anti-LGBTQI+ law — dammed Georgia’s path to the EU, which put its candidacy on hold citing the party’s authoritarian tendencies.

The Georgian Dream, in its desperate bid to steer clear of war, is at loggerheads with sections of the country’s society yearning for a pro-Western future.