Electoral staff count ballots at a polling station after voting ended in Iran’s run-off presidential election between Masoud Pezeshkian and Saeed Jalili, in Tehran, Iran July 6, 2024.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

Iran’s reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian was leading in runoff presidential elections against ultraconservative Saeed Jalili, according to early results released on July 6 by the interior ministry.

Officials have so far counted more than 11 million ballots for Pezeshkian and around 9 million for Jalili, electoral authority spokesman Mohsen Eslami was quoted by the official IRNA news agency as saying.

Editorial | Waiting for the reformist: On the Iran election

The final result will be announced later on Saturday.

Iran held the first round of its snap presidential election last week which was marked by a record low turnout.

Only 40% of Iran’s 61 million eligible voters cast their ballots in the first round – the lowest turnout in any presidential election since the Islamic Revolution of 1979.

The first round saw Pezeshkian, a sole reformist candidate, leading the polls running against three conservative figures with Jalili coming second and parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf in third place.

As none of the candidates secured more than 50% of the votes, a runoff round between Pezeshkian and Jalili was held on Friday.

Mr. Pezeshkian, a 69-year-old heart surgeon, earned the support of Iran’s main reformist coalition including ex-president Mohammad Khatami and moderate former president Hassan Rouhani.

Mr. Jalili, 58, is noted for his uncompromising anti-West position and rallied a substantial base of hardline supporters and received backing from other conservative figures.

The snap elections were originally slated for 2025 but were brought forward after the unexpected death of ultraconservative president Ebrahim Raisi in a May helicopter crash.

The ballot comes against a backdrop of heightened regional tensions over the Gaza war, a dispute with the West over Iran’s nuclear programme, and domestic discontent over the state of Iran’s sanctions-hit economy.

A man votes in the run-off presidential election between Masoud Pezeshkian and Saeed Jalili in Tehran, Iran, July 5, 2024.
| Photo Credit: REUTERS

Iranians began voting on July 5 in a runoff election to replace the late President Ebrahim Raisi, killed in a helicopter crash last month, as public apathy has become pervasive in the Islamic Republic after years of economic woes, mass protests and tensions in the Middle East.

Voters face a choice between the hard-line former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili and Masoud Pezeshkian, a heart surgeon and longtime parliament member who has allied himself with moderates and reformists within Iran’s Shiite theocracy.

An initial round of voting on June 28 saw no candidate get over 50% of the vote, forcing the runoff. It also saw the lowest turnout ever for an Iranian election, leaving turnout on July 5 a major question.

There have been calls for a boycott, including from imprisoned Nobel Peace Prize laureate Narges Mohammadi, though potential voters in Iran appear to have made the decision not to participate last week on their own as there’s no widely accepted opposition movement operating within or outside of the country.

State television broadcast images of modest lines at select polling places around the country as polls opened on July 5.

As has been the case since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, women and those calling for radical change have been barred from the ballot while the vote itself will have no oversight from internationally recognized monitors.

The voting comes as wider tensions have gripped the Middle East over the Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip. In April, Iran launched its first-ever direct attack on Israel over the war in Gaza, while militia groups that Tehran arms in the region — such as the Lebanese Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthi rebels — are engaged in the fighting and have escalated their attacks.

Meanwhile, Iran continues to enrich uranium at near weapons-grade levels and maintains a stockpile large enough to build — should it choose to do so — several nuclear weapons. Its 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, reached by officials now backing Pezeshkian, collapsed in 2018 after then-President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew America from the accord. In the time since, hard-liners have taken control of all levers of power within Iran’s government.

While Iran’s 85-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has the final say on all matters of state, presidents can bend the country’s policies toward confrontation or negotiation with the West.

Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi, who is in charge of overseeing the election, announced all the polls had opened at 8 a.m. local time.

Mr. Khamenei cast one of the election’s first votes from his residence, television cameras and photographers capturing him dropping the ballot into the box.

“I have heard that people’s enthusiasm is more than before,“ Mr. Khamenei said. “God willing, people vote and choose the best” candidate.

However, Mr. Khamenei on July 3 said that those who didn’t vote last week weren’t against the country’s Shiite theocracy.

“There are reasons behind this matter which should be examined by sociologists and those involved in politics,” he said.

More than 61 million Iranians over the age of 18 are eligible to vote, with about 18 million of them between 18 to 30. Elections are scheduled to end at 6 p.m. local, but traditionally get extended until midnight to boost participation.

July 5th’s election marks only Iran’s second presidential runoff since 1979. The first came in 2005, when hard-liner Mahmoud Ahmadinejad bested former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. Under Ahmadinejad, Iran faced international sanctions over its advancing nuclear program, as well as the 2009 Green Movement protests and the crackdown that smashed them.

Mr. Pezeshkian’s supporters have been warning Jalili will bring a “Taliban”-style government into Tehran, while Jalili has criticized Pezeshkian for running a campaign of fear-mongering.

The 63-year-old Raisi died in the May 19 helicopter crash that also killed the country’s foreign minister and others. He was seen as a protege of Khamenei and a potential successor as supreme leader. Still, many knew him for his involvement in the mass executions that Iran conducted in 1988, and for his role in the bloody crackdowns on dissent that followed protests over the 2022 death of Mahsa Amini, a young woman detained by police over allegedly improperly wearing the mandatory headscarf, or hijab.

Presidential candidates Masoud Pezeshkian and Saeed Jalili ​attend an election debate at a television studio in Tehran, on July 1, 2024.
| Photo Credit: REUTERS

A zealous anti-Westerner and the low-key moderate hoping to become Iran’s next president could struggle to mobilise millions of supporters on July 5’s run-off election amid voter apathy about a tightly-controlled contest.

Over 60% of voters abstained from the June 28 ballot for a successor to Ebrahim Raisi following his death in a helicopter crash, a historic low turnout which critics of the government see as a vote of no confidence in the Islamic Republic. The run-off election will be a tight race between lawmaker Massoud Pezeshkian, the sole moderate in the original field of four candidates, and former Revolutionary Guards member Saeed Jalili.

Both candidates have sought to engage voters by offering competing visions, with Jalili offering hawkish foreign and domestic policies and Pezeshkian advocating more social and political freedoms. Both pledge to revive the economy, plagued by mismanagement, state corruption, and sanctions reimposed since 2018 over Iran’s nuclear programme.

The clerical establishment needs a high turnout for its own credibility, particularly as it faces regional tension over the war between Israel and Iranian ally Hamas in Gaza, and increased Western pressure over its fast-advancing nuclear programme.

But growing numbers of Iranians have abstained at elections in recent years. The previous record low turnout was 41% in a parliamentary election in March, while Raisi won in 2021 on a turnout of about 49%, in which authorities disqualified heavy-weight conservative and moderate rivals.

‘A clash of visions’

“The run-off is a clash of visions: Jalili’s hardline ideology versus Pezeshkian’s call for essential moderation and change,” said Ali Vaez of International Crisis Group. “Beyond opposing Jalili, Pezeshkian must compete with voter apathy and secure at least some votes from this critical silent majority to win the election.”

The next president is not expected to usher in any major policy shift on Iran’s nuclear programme or support for militia groups across the Middle East, since Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei calls all the shots on top state matters.

However, the president can influence the tone of Iran’s domestic and foreign policy. With Mr. Khamenei aged 85, the next president will be closely involved in selecting the next supreme leader. Insiders say Mr. Khamenei is keen on a loyal and compliant president who can ensure a smooth eventual succession to his successor.

The rivals are establishment men loyal to Iran’s theocratic rule, but analysts said Mr. Jalili’s win would signal a potentially even more antagonistic domestic and foreign policy.

Mr. Pezeshkian’s triumph at the polls might promote a pragmatic foreign policy, ease tensions over now-stalled negotiations with major powers to revive the nuclear pact, and improve the prospects for social liberalisation and political pluralism.

To take victory from his hardline rival, Mr. Pezeshkian also needs to attract votes from supporters of hardline parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, who finished third in the first round, while mobilising a mostly young population chafing at political and social restrictions to vote for him again.

“Given Jalili’s extremism, I think it’s entirely possible more moderate conservative voters who cast their vote for Qalibaf will either vote for Pezeshkian or stay home next Friday,” said Eurasia group analyst Gregory Brew.

Backed by the reformist faction that has largely been sidelined in Iran in recent years, Pezeshkian’s campaign has been largely focused on “fear of the worse”. “I will vote this time … because Jalili’s presidency means more restrictions … This is choosing between bad and worse,” said Mehrshad, 34, a teacher in Tehran.

With no intention of confronting the powerful security hawks and clerical rulers, analysts said, Pezeshkian is not expected to gain support from many reform-minded Iranians, who have largely stayed away from the polls for the last four years.

“Pezeshkian is part of the establishment. He will follow Khamenei’s orders … Let the world know that Iranians do not want the Islamic Republic, I will not vote,” said university student Farzaneh in the central city of Yazd.

Activists and opposition groups have called for a boycott distributing the hashtag #ElectionCircus on social media platform X.

Hard-line former Iranian senior nuclear negotiator and candidate for the presidential election Saeed Jalili casts his ballot in a polling station, in Tehran, Iran, on June 28, 2024. Iranians are voting in a snap election to replace the late hard-line President Ebrahim Raisi.
| Photo Credit: AP

Early, seesawing results released Saturday in Iran’s presidential election put the race between reformist Masoud Pezeshkian and hard-liner Saeed Jalili, with the lead trading between the two men while a runoff vote appeared likely.

The early results, reported by Iranian state television, did not initially put either man in a position to win Friday’s election outright, potentially setting the stage for a runoff election to replace the late President Ebrahim Raisi.

It also did not offer any turnout figures for the race yet — a crucial component of whether Iran’s electorate backs its Shiite theocracy after years of economic turmoil and mass protests.

After counting over 12 million votes, Mr. Pezeshkian had 5.3 million while Mr. Jalili held 4.8 million.

Another candidate, hard-line speaker of the parliament Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, had some 1.6 million votes. Shiite cleric Mostafa Pourmohammadi had more than 95,000 votes.

Voters faced a choice between the three hard-line candidates and the little-known reformist Pezeshkian, a heart surgeon. As has been the case since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, women and those calling for radical change have been barred from running, while the vote itself will have no oversight from internationally recognised monitors.

The voting came as wider tensions have gripped the Middle East over the Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip.

In April, Iran launched its first-ever direct attack on Israel over the war in Gaza, while militia groups that Tehran arms in the region — such as the Lebanese Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthi rebels — are engaged in the fighting and have escalated their attacks.

Meanwhile, Iran continues to enrich uranium at near weapons-grade levels and maintains a stockpile large enough to build — should it choose to do so — several nuclear weapons.

There had been calls for a boycott, including from imprisoned Nobel Peace Prize laureate Narges Mohammadi. Mir Hossein Mousavi, one of the leaders of the 2009 Green Movement protests who remains in house arrest, also has refused to vote with his wife, his daughter said.

There’s also been criticism that Mr. Pezeshkian represents just another government-approved candidate. One woman in a documentary on Mr. Pezeshkian aired by state TV said her generation was “moving toward the same level” of animosity with the government that Mr. Pezeshkian’s generation had in the 1979 revolution.

Iranian law requires that a winner gets more than 50% of all votes cast. If that doesn’t happen, the race’s top two candidates will advance to a runoff a week later. There’s been only one runoff presidential election in Iran’s history: in 2005, when hard-liner Mahmoud Ahmadinejad bested former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani.

The 63-year-old Raisi died in the May 19 helicopter crash that also killed the country’s foreign minister and others. He was seen as a protégé of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and a potential successor. Still, many knew him for his involvement in the mass executions that Iran conducted in 1988, and for his role in the bloody crackdowns on dissent that followed protests over the death of Amini, a young woman detained by police over allegedly improperly wearing the mandatory headscarf, or hijab.

In this picture made available by Iranian state-run TV, Amirhossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi, left, embraces reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian after the conclusion of the candidates debate at the TV studio in Tehran, Iran, on June 25, 2024.
| Photo Credit: AP

A candidate in Iran’s presidential election withdrew from the race late on June 26, becoming the first to back out for hard-liners to coalesce around a unity candidate in the vote to replace the late President Ebrahim Raisi.

Amirhossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi, 53, dropped his candidacy and urged other candidates to do the same “so that the front of the revolution will be strengthened,” the state-run IRNA news agency reported.

Mr. Ghazizadeh Hasehmi served as one of Raisi’s Vice Presidents and as the head of the Foundation of Martyrs and Veterans Affairs. He ran in the 2021 presidential election and received just under 1 million votes, coming in last place.

Such withdrawals are common in the final hours of an Iranian presidential election, particularly in the last 24 hours before the vote is held when campaigns enter a mandatory quiet period without rallies. Voters go to the polls on June 28

Also read | A brief look at the life of Ebrahim Raisi

Mr. Ghazizadeh Hashemi’s decision leaves five other candidates still in the race. Analysts broadly see the race at the moment as a three-way contest.

Experts say two hard-liners, former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili and parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, are fighting over the same bloc. Then there’s the sole reformist in the race, Masoud Pezeshkian, a cardiac surgeon who has associated himself with the former administration of the relatively moderate President Hassan Rouhani, who reached Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal with world powers.

Iran’s theocracy under Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has maintained its stance of not approving women or anyone calling for radical change to the country’s government for the ballot. However, Mr. Khamenei in recent days has called for a “maximum” turnout in the vote, while also issuing a veiling warning to Mr. Pezeshkian and his allies about relying on the United States.

A widespread public apathy has descended in the Iranian capital over the election, coming after the May helicopter crash that killed Raisi.

After the promise nearly a decade ago of Tehran’s nuclear deal opening up Iran to the rest of the world, Iranians broadly face crushing economic conditions and a far more uncertain Middle East that already has seen the Islamic Republic directly attack Israel for the first time. Iran also now enriches uranium at nearly weapons-grade levels and has enough of it to produce several nuclear weapons if it choses.

The limited options in the election, as well as widespread discontent over Iran’s ongoing crackdown on women over the mandatory headscarf, has some saying they won’t vote.

“I did not watch any of the debates since I have no plan to vote,” said Fatemeh Jazayeri, a 27-year-old unemployed woman with a master’s degree. “I voted for Rouhani seven years ago, but he failed to deliver his promises for better economy. Any promise by any candidates will remain on paper only.”

Worshippers in Tehran at Friday prayers, typically more conservative than others in the city, appeared more willing to vote.

Mahmoud Seyedi, a 46-year-old shopkeeper, said he and his wife alongside two young daughters will vote,

“My wife and I have decided to vote for Qalibaf since he knows how to solve problems of the country because years of experiences but my daughters are thinking about Jalili, too,” he said. “By the way, voting is a duty for us.”

Parivash Emami, 49, another at prayers, said she hoped his vote could help Iran overcome its problems.

“Qalibaf knows details of problems in details, the rest are either critics or promise to solve problems without offering any program,” Ms. Emami said.