Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, right, gestures as he speaks to Russian Chief of General Staff Gen. Valery Gerasimov prior to a meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin with the top military brass in Moscow, Russia, on December 19, 2023.
| Photo Credit: AP

The International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants on June 25 for Russia’s former Defence Minister and its military chief of staff for attacking civilian targets in Ukraine.

The court is accusing former Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and chief of staff Gen. Valery Gerasimov of war crimes and the crime against humanity of inhumane acts.

The court said in a statement that warrants were issued because judges considered there were reasonable grounds to believe that the men are responsible for “missile strikes carried out by the Russian armed forces against the Ukrainian electric infrastructure” from October 10, 2022 until at least March 9, 2023.

“During this time-frame, a large number of strikes against numerous electric power plants and sub-stations were carried out by the Russian armed forces in multiple locations in Ukraine,” the court added.

Click here for full coverage of Russia Ukraine war

There is no immediate likelihood of either suspect being detained. Russia isn’t a member of the global court, doesn’t recognize its jurisdiction and refuses to hand over suspects.

Last year, the court also issued a warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin, accusing him of personal responsibility for the abductions of children from Ukraine.

Mr. Putin replaced Mr. Shoigu as Defence minister in a Cabinet shakeup in May as he began his fifth term as President. He appointed Mr. Shoigu as secretary of Russia’s Security Council, the Kremlin said.

Andrei Belousov
| Photo Credit: Illustration: R. Rajesh

Vladimir Putin’s inauguration as Russian President for a fifth time has spawned a slew of political moves in the country. Andrei Belousov was made Defence Minister, replacing Sergei Shoigu, who was sent away to head the National Security Council — a position held by Mr. Putin’s key ally Nikolai Patrushev, who will oversee shipbuilding going forward.

Russia’s official position regarding the Cabinet reshuffle is that with the war in Ukraine under way for two years now, military spending resembles Soviet-era levels of the mid-1980s. This calls for a better integration of the defence Budget into the overall economy, which will be achieved by having a civilian economist, such as Mr. Belousov, at the helm.

However, from the outset, things seemed to be going in favour of Mr. Shoigu, for the Ukraine war had finally gathered momentum. After remaining largely stagnant since December 2022, the Russian Army began advancing on the battlefront, capturing close to 800 sq. km this year.

What then would have prompted Mr. Shoigu’s transfer? Parse through the history and the full picture emerges. Like Mr. Belousov, Mr. Shoigu, too, hails from a civilian background. A civil engineer by profession, the 68-year-old started at the Emergency and Disaster Relief Department in the 1990s. Having proved his mettle there, Mr. Shoigu took over as Defence Minister in 2012. He orchestrated the annexation of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014 and masterminded Russia’s military campaign in Syria to help Bashar al-Assad’s regime.

Inner circle

His stature had grown by then and Mr. Shoigu became part of Mr. Putin’s inner circle, even accompanying him on fishing trips. Speculation was rife that he would be considered a possible successor to Mr. Putin.

The first signs of trouble for Mr. Shoigu were visible with Russia’s ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine that was launched on February 24, 2022. What was expected to be a quick campaign has dragged on for more than two years.

The period also witnessed economic sanctions by the West and a mutiny at home by Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin against Mr. Shoigu and military chief Valery Gerasimov. The final nail came in April with the arrests of Mr. Shoigu’s deputy Timur Ivanov on corruption charges and another senior official from the Defence Ministry.

This may lead to the impression that graft and inefficiency on the battlefield led to Mr. Shoigu’s removal. But then not every head rolled, and Mr. Gerasimov remains unaffected by the Cabinet shake-up, continuing to serve in his role; forcing analysts to think Mr. Shoigu’s increased clout could also have contributed to his ‘demotion’.

Taken together with the Prigozhin episode, the clout factor is likely to have played a part in Mr. Putin’s decision. A look at the other appointments further underscores this. Mr. Patrushev’s son, Dmitry, has been promoted from Agriculture Minister to Deputy Prime Minister, and so is Mr. Putin’s main financier Yuri Kovalchuk’s son Boris, who is assigned to lead Russia’s audit chamber.

By tying the prospects of next-generation leaders to the current political dispensation, analysts believe Mr. Putin is trying to neutralise potential threats from various quarters.

This makes Mr. Belousov, a civilian with a relatively low profile, the ideal candidate for Mr. Putin. The 65-year-old’s stints, first as an Economic Development Minister and then as a Deputy Prime Minister, lend him enough heft to take on the role of Defence Minister. His interest in drones paints the picture of a technocrat, who can bring about the required ‘innovation’, which Russian officials believe is crucial to winning the war. His economic background should also help plug corruption and ensure money is allotted efficiently and effectively.

Most important, the fact that Mr. Belousov and Mr. Putin possess a set of shared beliefs, chief among which is an increased state role in the economy, solidifies his case. Mr. Belousov’s efforts to this end — such as an increase in VAT in 2019 and a proposal to seize excess profit from 14 large metallurgical and chemical companies — must have caught the Russian President’s attention.

By appointing an economist at the helm, the Russian President realises the role played by the economy during wartime. This means Mr. Belousov has his task cut out and will have to straddle the economy and the war optimally.

Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting with members of the new government in Moscow, Russia May 14, 2024.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

Russian President Vladimir Putin on May 14 signed a decree appointing a new government, including replacement of the Defence Minister with a former Deputy Prime Minister who is an economics expert with no military background.

When Mr. Putin was inaugurated for a new six-year term on May 7, the government submitted its resignation in line with Russian law. Mr. Putin reappointed Mikhail Mishustin as Prime Minister three days later, which was quickly approved by the lower house of parliament.

On May 12, he signed a decree moving Sergei Shoigu from his post as Defence Minister to Head of the National Security Council. Mr. Putin also nominated Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov to take Mr. Shoigu’s place.

Mr. Putin also proposed names for some Cabinet members to return to their posts and Mr. Mishustin submitted names for several new ministers, all of which were approved by the parliament.

Mr. Shoigu has been widely seen as a key figure in Mr. Putin’s decision to send Russian troops into Ukraine. Russia had expected the operation to quickly overwhelm Ukraine’s much smaller and less-equipped army and for Ukrainians to broadly welcome Russian troops.

Instead, the conflict galvanised Ukraine to mount an intense defence, dealing the Russian army humiliating blows, including the retreat from an attempt to take the capital, Kyiv, and a counteroffensive that drove Moscow’s forces out of the Kharkiv region.

Mr. Shoigu also was shadowed by the arrest last month of Deputy Defence Minister Timur Ivanov on charges of accepting huge bribes.

The decree by Putin largely retains the previous Cabinet, but names new energy, sports, transport, industry and agriculture ministers.

Russian President Vladimir Putin on May 12 replaced Sergei Shoigu as Defence Minister in a Cabinet shakeup that comes as he begins his fifth term in office.

In line with Russian law, the entire Russian Cabinet resigned on Tuesday following Mr. Putin’s glittering inauguration in the Kremlin, and most members have been widely expected to keep their jobs, while Mr. Shoigu’s fate had appeared uncertain.

Mr. Putin signed a decree on Sunday appointing Mr. Shoigu as secretary of Russia’s Security Council, the Kremlin said. The appointment was announced shortly after Mr. Putin proposed Andrei Belousov to become the country’s Defence Minister in place of Mr. Shoigu.

The announcement of Mr. Shoigu’s new role came as 13 people were reported dead and 20 more wounded in Russia’s border city of Belgorod, where a 10-story apartment building partially collapsed after what Russian officials said was Ukrainian shelling. Ukraine has not commented on the incident.

Mr. Belousov’s candidacy will need to be approved by Russia’s Upper House in parliament, the Federation Council. It reported on Sunday that Mr. Putin introduced proposals for other Cabinet positions as well but Mr. Shoigu is the only Minister on that list who is being replaced. Several other new candidates for Federal Ministers were proposed on Saturday by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, reappointed by Mr. Putin on Friday.

Mr. Shoigu’s deputy, Timur Ivanov, was arrested last month on bribery charges and was ordered to remain in custody pending an official investigation. The arrest of Mr. Ivanov was widely interpreted as an attack on Mr. Shoigu and a possible precursor of his dismissal, despite his close personal ties with Mr. Putin.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Sunday that Mr. Putin had decided to give the Defence Minister role to a civilian because the Ministry should be “open to innovation and cutting-edge ideas.” He also said the increasing defence Budget “must fit into the country’s wider economy,” and Mr. Belousov, who until recently served as the first Deputy Prime Minister, is the right fit for the job.

Mr. Belousov, 65, held leading positions in the finances and economic department of the Prime Minister’s office and the Ministry of Economic Development. In 2013, he was appointed an adviser to Mr. Putin and seven years later, in January 2020, he became first deputy Prime Minister.

Mr. Peskov assured that the reshuffle will not affect “the military aspect,” which “has always been the prerogative of the Chief of General Staff,” and Gen. Valery Gerasimov, who currently serves in this position, will continue his work.

Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, said in an online commentary that Mr. Shoigu’s new appointment to Russia’s Security Council showed that the Russian leader viewed the institution as “a reservoir” for his “‘former’ key figures — people who he cannot in any way let go, but does not have a place for.”

Figures such as former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev have also been appointed to the security council. Mr. Medvedev has served as the body’s deputy chairman since 2020.

Mr. Shoigu was appointed to the Security Council instead of Nikolai Patrushev, Mr. Putin’s long-term ally. Mr. Peskov said Sunday that Mr. Patrushev is taking on another role, and promised to reveal details in the coming days.

Mr. Shoigu has been widely seen as a key figure in Mr. Putin’s decision to send Russian troops into Ukraine. Russia had expected the operation to quickly overwhelm Ukraine’s much smaller and less-equipped army and for Ukrainians to broadly welcome Russian troops.

Instead, the conflict galvanised Ukraine to mount an intense defence, dealing the Russian army humiliating blows, including the retreat from an attempt to take the capital, Kyiv, and a counteroffensive that drove Moscow’s forces out of the Kharkiv region.

Before he was named Defence Minister in 2012, Mr. Shoigu spent more than 20 years directing markedly different work: In 1991, he was appointed head of the Russian Rescue Corps disaster-response agency, which eventually became the Ministry of Emergency Situations. He became highly visible in the post. The job also allowed him to be named a general even though he had no military service behind him as the rescue corps absorbed the militarised Civil Defence Troops.

Mr. Shoigu does not wield the same kind of power as Mr. Patrushev, who has long been the country’s top security official. But the position he will take — the same position that Patrushev worked to transform from a minor bureaucratic role to a place of sizable influence — will still carry some authority, according to Mark Galeotti, head of the Mayak Intelligence consultancy.

High-level security materials intended for the President’s eyes will still pass through the Security Council Secretariat, even with changes at the top. “You can’t just institutionally turn around a bureaucracy and how it works overnight,” he said.

Thousands of civilians have fled Russia’s renewed ground offensive in Ukraine’s northeast that has targeted towns and villages with a barrage of artillery and mortar shelling, officials said Sunday.

The intense battles have forced at least one Ukrainian unit to withdraw in the Kharkiv region, capitulating more land to Russian forces across less defended settlements in the so-called contested gray zone along the Russian border.

By Sunday afternoon, the town of Vovchansk, among the largest in the northeast with a prewar population of 17,000, emerged as a focal point in the battle.

Volodymyr Tymoshko, the head of the Kharkiv regional police, said that Russian forces were on the outskirts of the town and approaching from three directions.

An AP team, positioned in a nearby village, saw plumes of smoke rising from the town as Russian forces hurled shells. Evacuation teams worked nonstop throughout the day to take residents, most of whom were older, out of harm’s way.

At least 4,000 civilians have fled the Kharkiv region since Friday, when Moscow’s forces launched the operation, Gov. Oleh Syniehubov said in a social media statement. Heavy fighting raged Sunday along the northeast front line, where Russian forces attacked 27 settlements in the past 24 hours, he said.

Analysts say the Russian push is designed to exploit ammunition shortages before promised Western supplies can reach the front line.

Ukrainian soldiers said the Kremlin is using the usual Russian tactic of launching a disproportionate amount of fire and infantry assaults to exhaust Ukrainian troops and firepower. By intensifying battles in what was previously a static patch of the front line, Russian forces threaten to pin down Ukrainian forces in the northeast, while carrying out intense battles farther south where Moscow is also gaining ground.

It comes after Russia stepped up attacks in March targeting energy infrastructure and settlements, which analysts predicted were a concerted effort to shape conditions for an offensive.

The Russian Defence Ministry said Sunday that its forces had captured four villages on the border along Ukraine’s Kharkiv region, in addition to five villages reported to have been seized on Saturday. These areas were likely poorly fortified because of the dynamic fighting and constant heavy shelling, easing a Russian advance.

Ukraine’s leadership hasn’t confirmed Moscow’s gains. But Tymoshko, the head of the Kharkiv regional police, said that Strilecha, Pylna and Borsivika were under Russian occupation, and it was from their direction they were bringing in infantry to stage attacks in other embattled villages of Hlyboke and Lukiantsi.

This video grab from a handout footage released by the Russian Defence Ministry press service on October 25, 2023, shows Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu visiting the “Vostok” command post in eastern Ukraine.
| Photo Credit: AFP

Russia claimed on October 25 it was exhausting Ukraine’s army, 20 months into a conflict in which neither side has made recent significant gains.

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu made the comments during a visit to east Ukraine, the Defence Ministry said on October 25.

“The situation today suggests the enemy has fewer and fewer opportunities. And they will continue to be reduced, thanks exclusively to your combat work,” Mr. Shoigu told Russian soldiers.

He was also filmed smiling and laughing when a Russian soldier told him Ukrainian troops were “in a panic”.

It has been months since either Russia or Ukraine made a significant territorial gain in the 20-month conflict, as losses continue to mount. Analysts say the conflict is approaching a winter stalemate.

The Defence Ministry did not say when Shoigu’s visit to Russia’s “Vostok” — or East — command post took place.

In a rare admission, it also quoted soldiers telling Mr. Shoigu that heavy Ukrainian artillery fire was having an effect.

“The enemy’s artillery is causing a lot of problems. We are taking measures,” the soldiers were quoted as saying.

The Defence Minister has faced criticism inside Russia for Moscow’s failure to make more significant gains during its assault on Ukraine.

Russian forces have recently stepped up their attacks on the eastern Ukrainian city of Avdiivka but have failed to make any significant advances.

It has suffered a string of manpower and equipment losses in its attempt to seize the city — which has become a symbol of Ukrainian resistance — according to Kyiv and independent military analysts.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on October 25 his troops were facing “heavy, tough battles” around Avdiivka but were “holding their positions”.

News of Mr. Shoigu’s visit comes a day after Mr. Zelensky said Kyiv had managed to disrupt Russian attacks from the Black Sea and the annexed peninsula of Crimea.

“The Russian fleet is no longer capable of operating in the western part of the Black Sea and is gradually fleeing Crimea. This is a historic achievement,” Mr. Zelensky told a diplomatic summit on October 24.