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India’s nuclear arsenal reached 172 warheads this year, slightly surpassing Pakistan which has 170 warheads. China, on the other hand, has triple that number, with 500 warheads, some of which are believed to be on high operational alert for the first time, according to the Swedish think-tank Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

At the same time, SIPRI also noted that India is strengthening the undersea leg of its nuclear triad as well as developing long range missiles.

“India’s third SSBN [a nuclear-powered submarine carrying ballistic missiles armed with nuclear weapons], currently known by its S4 developmental name, was reportedly launched in November 2021, and a fourth is under construction for possible launch in 2024. These submarines are believed to be significantly larger than the first two, with satellite imagery indicating that they are approximately 20 metres longer,” according to the SIPRI yearbook 2024 released on June 17. On the second SSBN, Arighat, the report noted that it was launched in November 2017 and underwent advanced sea trials in 2021-22, but that it is commissioning into the Indian Navy has been delayed and is now expected sometime in 2024.

Deterring China

The limited ranges of India’s initial nuclear systems meant that, until the early 2010s, their only credible role was to deter Pakistan, the report noted on India’s nuclear doctrine. “However, with the development since then of longer-range missiles capable of targeting all of China, in recent years it appears that India has placed increased emphasis on deterring China,” it added.

India, Pakistan and North Korea are all pursuing the capability to deploy multiple warheads on ballistic missiles, something Russia, France, the United Kingdom, the United States and — more recently — China already have, the report noted. “This would enable a rapid potential increase in deployed warheads, as well as the possibility for nuclear-armed countries to threaten the destruction of significantly more targets,” it said

Multiple warheads

On March 11, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced India’s entry into a club of the few countries capable of delivering multiple nuclear warheads using a single missile. This was accomplished with the maiden test flight of Agni-V, India’s longest range ballistic missile with a range of more than 5,000 km, with multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle technology, under ‘Mission Divyastra’ conducted by the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO).

India’s nuclear doctrine, with ‘no first use’ and massive retaliation forming its core tenets, was put in place soon after it tested nuclear weapons in the summer of 1998.

In November 2019, India formally declared its nuclear triad operational, after the country’s first SSBN, INS Arihant, completed its first deterrence patrol. This means Arihant has begun patrols at sea carrying ballistic missiles equipped with nuclear warheads.