Jharkhand is set to vote for 38 seats in the second and final phase of assembly elections on November 20, alongside Maharashtra. In the first phase, held on November 13, the state voted for 43 seats, primarily in Kolhan (14), South Chotanagpur (15), Palamu (9), and a few seats in North Chotanagpur (5). In the second phase, 20 seats in North Chotanagpur and 18 in Santhal Pargana will go to the polls.

The INDIA bloc aims to retain power, buoyed by its welfare schemes and the adivasi asmita (tribal pride) narrative. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), on the other hand, hopes to make a comeback, capitalising on allegations of non-performance and corruption against the Soren government. In the first phase, women voters outnumbered men by 4.8%. In fact, 37 of the 43 constituencies saw higher female voter turnout.

Phase 1 of polling in Jharkhand recorded a voter turnout of 66.65%, a 2.75 percentage point increase from the 2019 elections. Male voter turnout stood at 64.27%, while female turnout was 69.04%. The INDIA bloc has hailed the high turnout, claiming that women beneficiaries of the Maiyya Samman Yojana turned out in large numbers, giving them an edge. The NDA, however, attributes the high turnout to anti-incumbency sentiments.

I travelled through the state during Diwali and Chhath Puja and below are my findings.

Adivasi ‘Asmita’

The arrest of Chief Minister Hemant Soren has reignited the adivasi asmita (tribal pride) issue. In the 2024 general elections, tribals overwhelmingly voted against the NDA, with the INDIA bloc winning all five ST-reserved seats. The Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) has successfully framed the narrative that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) jailed their popular Chief Minister as part of a political conspiracy. Hemant Soren has positioned himself as the preeminent tribal leader in Jharkhand. In response, the BJP is attempting to consolidate a coalition of tribal leaders, including Babulal Marandi, Arjun Munda, and Champai Soren, to counter Hemant and showcase its own tribal leadership.

Insider vs Outsider

The elections have turned into a battle between locals and outsiders. Tribals are economically disadvantaged, while outsiders occupy most government and private sector jobs and are generally more prosperous. Tribals accuse outsiders of seizing their land and prospering at their expense. The JMM is viewed as the party representing local interests, while the BJP is seen as representing the outsiders.

An Identity Battle

The lines of identity have become so sharply drawn that voters seem less concerned about the performance of their elected representatives. Despite extensive media debates on issues like anti-incumbency and MLA performance, I found that local voters were generally indifferent to these concerns, provided the MLA belonged to their caste or community. When I probed one local about the performance of their MLA, he responded by saying, “kaam kaun karta hai?” (Who works, after all?)

BJP’s Slogan

The BJP has adopted the slogan ‘Batenge to Katenge’ (divided we fall), which has polarised the election. Jharkhand has a Muslim population of 14.5% (as per the 2011 census), which is roughly equal to the national average. The BJP has raised concerns over issues like ‘love jihad’, accusing Muslim men of marrying tribal women and subsequently taking control of tribal land and local governance through tribal sarpanchs. The BJP has particularly emphasised this issue in Santhal Pargana, accusing the JMM of failing to prevent the infiltration of outsiders, which they claim has altered the region’s demographic makeup. The party has promised the implementation of the National Register of Citizens (NRC) and hopes to make inroads in the region that was swept by the JMM-Congress-Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) alliance in 2019.

Congress A Weak Link?

In the 2019 elections, the Congress won 16 seats, mostly in the Chotanagpur division. The party has traditional strongholds in this region, although, over the years, many of these have shifted to the BJP. Just days before the polls, the Congress replaced its state president, Rajesh Thakur, who had made significant efforts to rebuild the party’s organisation. The Congress is contesting 37 seats in this election, but many view it as the “weak link” of the alliance.

Rise Of Kalpana Soren

The arrest of Hemant Soren propelled Kalpana Soren into the spotlight within the JMM. She took charge of the Lok Sabha campaign and became its star campaigner, connecting with women and young voters and energising the party cadre. Kalpana’s rallies often attract large crowds of tribal women, who relate to her discussions about the benefits of the Maiya Samman Yojana.

Schemes On Offer

The Soren government launched the Maiya Samman Yojana, modelled on the Laadli Bahin Yojana. Under this scheme, the government provides Rs 1,000 per month to 50 lakh women. Women voters are becoming an increasingly important demographic, and are playing a decisive role in elections. The BJP’s manifesto also includes the Go Go Yojana, while the INDIA bloc has promised to increase the cash dole in its manifesto.

Rise Of The Tiger

The rise of Jairam Mahato has shaken up Jharkhand politics. As a Kurmi leader, he has reignited the ‘insider vs outsider’ debate by demanding that the 1932 land records be used as the basis for the domicile policy. His rallies draw large crowds, particularly among the youth, and he has significantly impacted the INDIA bloc’s prospects in the Lok Sabha elections. In the assembly polls, he could pose a challenge to the All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU), a party that also represents Kurmis and has been pushing for their inclusion in the ST list.

Bread And Butter Issues

Rising prices, unemployment, and rural distress remain key issues in the state. Jharkhand is one of India’s most backward states, with many of its districts ranked among the 250 most backward in the country. Its per capita income is roughly half the national average. Although Jharkhand is rich in minerals, illegal mining and the lack of industrial development—exacerbated by its landlocked nature—have hindered economic growth.

Battle Of Alliances

The BJP has aligned with the AJSU, the Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (JVM), and the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), while the JMM has partnered with the Congress, the RJD and Left parties. Seamless vote transfer between alliance partners will be crucial.

In 2019, the BJP and the AJSU contested separately, leading to their defeat. Had they contested together, they could have won 41 of the 81 seats, securing a simple majority.

There are an average of 15 candidates in each constituency, and independents or smaller parties could play the role of spoilers. Micro-management and voter mobilisation could ultimately decide the outcome.

(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar, he was a corporate and investment banker.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author