China and the Philippines reached a deal they hope will end confrontations at the most fiercely disputed shoal in the South China Sea, the Philippine government said Sunday.

The Philippines occupies Second Thomas Shoal but China also claims it, and increasingly hostile clashes at sea have sparked fears of larger conflicts that could involve the United States.

The crucial deal was reached on Sunday, after a series of meetings between Philippine and Chinese diplomats in Manila and exchanges of diplomatic notes that aimed to establish a mutually acceptable arrangement at the shoal without conceding either side’s territorial claims.

Two Philippine officials, who have knowledge of the negotiations, confirmed the deal to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity and the government later issued a brief statement announcing the deal without providing details.

“Both sides continue to recognize the need to deescalate the situation in the South China Sea and manage differences through dialogue and consultation and agree that the agreement will not prejudice each other’s positions in the South China Sea,” the Department of Foreign Affairs in Manila said.

Neither side has yet released the text of the agreement.

China has disputes with several governments over land and sea borders, many of them in the South China Sea, and the rare deal with the Philippines could spark hope that similar arrangements could be forged by Beijing with other rival countries to avoid clashes while thorny territorial issues remain unresolved. It remains to be seen, however, if the deal could be implemented successfully and how long it will last.

Chinese coast guard and other forces have used powerful water cannons and dangerous blocking maneuvers to prevent food and other supplies from reaching Filipino navy personnel at Manila’s outpost at the shoal.

The yearslong territorial standoff at the shoal has flared repeatedly since last year between Chinese coast guard, navy and suspected militia ships and Philippine coast guard-escorted navy boats transporting food, water and fresh navy and marine personnel to an outpost on a long-grounded and rusting warship, the BRP Sierra Madre.

In the worst confrontation, Chinese forces on motorboats repeatedly rammed and then boarded two Philippine navy boats on June 17 to prevent Filipino personnel from transferring food and other supplies including firearms to the ship outpost in the shallows of the shoal, according to the Philippine government.

After repeated ramming, the Chinese seized the Philippine navy boats and damaged them with machetes and improvised spears. They also seized seven M4 rifles, which were packed in cases, and other supplies. The violent faceoff wounded several Filipino navy personnel, including one who lost his thumb, in a chaotic skirmish that was captured in video and photos that were later made public by Philippine officials.

China and the Philippines blamed each other for the confrontation and each asserted their own sovereign rights over the shoal, which Filipinos call Ayungin and the Chinese call Ren’ai Jiao.

The United States and its key Asian and Western allies, including Japan and Australia, condemned the Chinese acts at the shoal and called for the rule of law and freedom of navigation to be upheld in the South China Sea, a key global trade route with rich fishing areas and undersea gas deposits.

In addition to China and the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan have been locked in separate but increasingly tense territorial disputes in the waterway, which is regarded as a potential flashpoint and a delicate fault line in the U.S.-China regional rivalry. The U.S. military has deployed navy ships and fighter jets for decades in what it calls freedom of navigation and overflight patrols, which China has opposed and regards as a threat to regional stability.

Washington has no territorial claims in the disputed waters but has repeatedly warned that it is obligated to defend the Philippines, its oldest treaty ally in Asia, if Filipino forces, ships and aircraft come under an armed attack, including in the South China Sea.

One of the two Philippine officials said the June 17 confrontation prompted Beijing and Manila to hasten on-and-off talks on an arrangement that would prevent confrontations at Second Thomas Shoal.

During final meetings in the last four days, two Chinese demands that had been key sticking points were removed from the draft deal.

China had previously said it would allow food, water and other basic supplies to be transported by the Philippines to its forces in the shoal if Manila agreed not to bring construction materials to fortify the crumbling ship, and to give China advance notice and the right to inspect the ships for those materials, the officials said.

The Philippines rejected those conditions, and the final deal did not include them, according to the Philippine official.

This frame grab from handout video taken on June 17, 2024 and released by the Armed Forces of the Philippines Public Affairs Office on June 19 shows China coast guard personnel (C) appearing to wield bladed weapons during an incident off Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea. The Philippine military said on June 19 the Chinese coast guard rammed and boarded Filipino navy boats in a violent confrontation in the South China Sea this week in which a Filipino sailor lost a thumb. China defended its actions, with its foreign ministry saying on Wednesday that “no direct measures” were taken against Filipino personnel.
| Photo Credit: AFP

Chinese coast guard sailors brandished knives, an axe and other weapons in a clash with Philippine naval vessels near a strategic reef in the South China Sea, dramatic new footage released by Manila showed.

The clash took place Monday as Philippine forces attempted to resupply marines stationed on a derelict warship that was deliberately grounded atop the disputed Second Thomas Shoal in 1999 to assert Manila’s territorial claims.

It was the latest in a series of escalating confrontations between Chinese and Philippine ships in recent months as Beijing steps up efforts to push its claims to the disputed area.

Philippine military chief General Romeo Brawner said the “outnumbered” Filipino crew had been unarmed and had fought with their “bare hands”.

A Filipino sailor lost a thumb in the clash, in which the Chinese coast guard confiscated or destroyed Philippine equipment including guns, according to the Philippine military.

Fresh footage released by the Philippine military late Wednesday showed small boats crewed by Chinese sailors shouting, waving knives and using sticks to hit an inflatable boat as a siren blares.

A voice speaking Tagalog can be heard in one clip saying someone had “lost a finger”.

Manila’s footage of the clash stands in stark contrast to photos released by Beijing’s state media on Wednesday, which did not show Chinese forces wielding weapons.

‘Violent confrontation’

Asked about the videos on Thursday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said Manila’s comments on the clash were “totally bogus accusations that confuse black with white”.

He blamed the Philippines for the confrontation, saying they had “escalated tensions” and accused them of ramming Chinese boats.

Lin said the Philippine boats had been trying “to sneak in building materials, but also tried to smuggle in military equipment”.

Beijing has insisted that its coast guard behaved in a “professional and restrained” way and claimed “no direct measures” were taken against Filipino personnel.

But in a clip shared by Manila, a Chinese sailor standing on the deck of one of the boats can clearly be seen waving an axe.

Another shows a Chinese coast guard sailor striking the inflatable boat with a stick. A second man can also be seen stabbing the boat with a knife.

The Philippines military said an axe-wielding sailor had “threatened to injure” a Filipino soldier, while others were “explicitly threatening to harm” Filipino troops.

“The [Chinese coast guard] personnel then began hurling rocks and other objects at our personnel,” Manila said.

“They also slashed the [inflatable boats], rendering them inoperable.”

The Filipino sailors, wearing brown camouflage with helmets and vests, are not carrying weapons in the clips.

“Amidst this violent confrontation, the CCG [Chinese coast guard] also deployed tear gas, intensifying the chaos and confusion, while continuously blaring sirens to further disrupt communication,” the caption said.

Manila has accused Beijing of an “act of piracy” against its forces.

It has also demanded the return of items “looted” by the Chinese side, including seven guns, and reparations for damaged equipment.

‘Perilous’ situation

Analysts say Beijing is escalating confrontations with the Philippines in a bid to push it out of the South China Sea.

Jay Batongbacal, director for the Institute for Maritime Affairs and Law of the Sea in Manila, told AFP that China’s forces could be poised to seize the grounded Philippine warship, the Sierra Madre.

“The deployment of their forces at present around the Sierra Madre and then the many reefs around the Kalayaan island group is indicative that they’re ready to do it,” he said, referring to Manila-claimed areas in the Spratly Islands.

The United States has said that “an armed attack” against Philippine public vessels, aircraft, armed forces and coastguard anywhere in the South China Sea would require it to come to Manila’s defence as a treaty ally.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken “emphasized that (China’s) actions undermine regional peace and stability” in a call with his Philippine counterpart Enrique A. Manalo on Wednesday, according to the State Department.

Blinken said they also “underscored the United States’ ironclad commitments to the Philippines under our Mutual Defense Treaty”.

Another analyst said the clashes “brought us perilously close” to a point where the United States would be required to intervene militarily.

“The Philippines will likely need to continue resupply missions to the Sierra Madre, one way or another,” said Duan Dang, a Vietnam-based maritime security analyst.

“Backing down and accepting Beijing’s terms regarding these operations would mean relinquishing sovereign rights within its Exclusive Economic Zone,” he said.

Huddled in the presidential situation room in February last year, senior Philippines officials faced a stark choice. Military and intelligence leaders watched as coast guard officers showed photos of what the agency said was a military-grade laser that China had pointed at a Philippines ship in disputed waters days earlier.

Eduardo Ano, the national security adviser and chair of the South China Sea taskforce, had to decide whether to release the pictures and risk Beijing’s ire, or refrain from aggravating his giant neighbour.

“The public deserves to know,” the retired general told the officials. “Publish the photographs.” The previously undisclosed meeting marked a pivotal moment, as Manila began a publicity blitz to highlight the intensifying territorial dispute in the South China Sea, where the ramming of ships, use of water cannons and ensuing diplomatic protests have sharply raised tensions.

“It was a turning point and the birth of the transparency policy,” National Security Council spokesperson Jonathan Malaya, who attended the meeting and recounted the exchange, told Reuters. “The goal was to eventually impose severe costs to Beijing’s reputation, image and standing.” Mr. Malaya said President Ferdinand Marcos Jr had directed officials to “civilianise and internationalise” the dispute, which they had achieved by using the coast guard and routinely embedding foreign journalists on missions. “This became an important component of building international support for the Philippines, because our audience is also foreign governments,” he added.

This account of the Philippines’ policy switch and its implications is based on interviews with 20 Philippine and Chinese officials, regional diplomats and analysts. They said publicising China’s actions, combined with Manila’s deepened military alliance with the U.S., had constrained Beijing’s ability to escalate matters at sea but raised the risks of Chinese economic retaliation and U.S. involvement. The February 2023 meeting occurred days after Mr. Marcos granted the U.S. access to four more military bases in the Philippines, rekindling defence ties that had suffered under his predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte.

“China has few escalatory options left without triggering the U.S.-Philippines mutual defence treaty and risking a military confrontation between Chinese and U.S. forces,” said Ian Storey, a security scholar at Singapore’s Yusof Ishak ISEAS Institute.

Mr. Marcos has also pursued a diplomatic offensive, gaining statements of support for the Philippines’ position from countries such as Canada, Germany, India and Japan.

The South China Sea is rich in oil and gas. About $3 trillion in trade passes through it annually. U.S. access to Philippine bases could prove important in a war over Taiwan. China, whose claims to most of the sea were invalidated by an international tribunal in 2016, says Philippine vessels illegally intrude into waters surrounding disputed shoals. It has warned Mr. Marcos, who took office in June 2022, against misjudging the situation.

“This is brinkmanship, poker,” said Philippine legal scholar Jay Batongbacal. “Brinkmanship is taking things to the edge, trying to see who loses his nerve. Poker is a game of bluffing and deception — one could be doing both at the same time.”

In response to Reuters questions, China’s Foreign Ministry said the Philippines had been stoking tensions with “provocative actions at sea in an attempt to infringe on China’s territorial sovereignty and maritime rights”.

China, it said, would defend its interests while handling the dispute peacefully through dialogue.

A U.S. State Department spokesperson said Manila’s transparency initiative had succeeded in calling greater attention to China’s “disregard for international law” and actions that endangered Philippine service members.

The spokesperson would not comment on the risk of U.S. military involvement but said the U.S. would support the Philippines if it faced economic coercion from China.

‘AWAKE AT NIGHT’

The conflict is over Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal, where the Philippine navy maintains a rusting warship, BRP Sierra Madre, that it beached in 1999 to reinforce Manila’s sovereignty claims. A small crew is stationed on it. Chinese ships have sought to block resupply missions, by encircling Philippine vessels and firing water cannons that in March shattered a boat’s windshield, injuring its crew. Manila released footage of the incident; China said it acted lawfully and professionally. In February, Philippine ships recorded Chinese counterparts placing a barrier across the entrance to Scarborough Shoal. This week, both sides traded accusations over a collision involving their vessels near Second Thomas Shoal.

Philippine Coast Guard spokesman Jay Tarriela taunts Chinese officials and state media on X, sometimes posting drone footage of maritime clashes. “If I were doing anything incorrect, I would have been shut down,” he said.

Mr. Tarriela said the transparency drive had worked, by galvanising support for Manila while the threshold of China’s aggression had not changed, despite an increase in incidents.

“They are still depending on their water cannon … they are still stuck with that kind of tactic,” he said.

The number of Chinese vessels around Second Thomas Shoal during Philippine resupply missions has grown from a single ship on average in 2021 to around 14 in 2023, the Center for Strategic and International Studies said in January. Last month, China’s coast guard came within metres of the Sierra Madre and seized supplies air-dropped to troops stationed there, according to Philippine officials. China, whose navy patrolled nearby, said Filipino soldiers pointed guns at its coast guard; Manila said they just held their weapons.

Philippine officials say they fear a fatal accident could escalate into open hostilities.

“That keeps a lot of us awake at night,” the Philippines’ ambassador to Washington, Jose Manuel Romualdez, told Reuters.

Manila also wants to avoid the kind of economic pressure it faced around a decade ago, when protracted Chinese customs checks caused Philippine bananas to rot on Chinese docks.

China was the Philippines’ second-biggest export market in 2023, taking nearly $11 billion worth or 14.8% of all its shipments. China is the Philippines’ top source of imports, mainly refined petroleum products and electronics.

Mr. Romualdez said Manila hoped China would “see the value of continuing our economic activity while trying to peacefully resolve the issue”.

Edcel John Ibarra, a political scientist at the University of the Philippines, said Mr. Marcos risks provoking China into “a harder approach”, such as non-tariff barriers and tourism restrictions. He pointed to changes China announced in May that allow its coast guard to detain foreigners without trial for 60 days.

‘PARADIGM SHIFT’

The intensity of Manila’s campaign has surprised its neighbours. Vietnam and Malaysia, which also have maritime disputes with Beijing, have been more cautious about what they release from their skirmishes with China.

“We are all watching this and talking amongst ourselves,” said one Asian diplomat, who was not authorised to be named. “The Philippines has carved out a new strategy in standing up to Beijing over a point of friction.”

Mr. Marcos said in December that diplomacy with China had achieved little, calling on Southeast Asia “to come up with a paradigm shift”.

China’s state media have expressed irritation with the transparency push.

The Philippines has been “playing the victim to deceive international public opinions”, the state-backed Global Times said in an op-ed in May. A key aspect of Manila’s approach has been solidifying the U.S. alliance. Both countries made clear in May last year that their defence treaty also covers the coast guard. In April, Mr. Marcos participated in an unprecedented summit with his U.S. and Japanese counterparts.

A U.S. official involved in U.S.-China talks that month said Chinese officials have complained about these diplomatic breakthroughs behind closed doors, adding that Beijing was “feeling the squeeze”.

Some Chinese scholars, like Zha Daojiong, at Peking University’s School of International Studies, say the situation is at an impasse and that China will continue to be “essentially reactive” at flashpoints like Second Thomas Shoal.

“By responding to the Philippines’ action, I guess they want to keep the message that this shoal is in dispute,” he said.