A worker tears down the pictures of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, former Syrian President Hafez al-Assad, Lebanon’s late Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei at a gas station in Nubl, a Shi’ite village seized by rebels, in rural Aleppo, Syria, December 11, 2024.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

The head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said the country has to live with the new “realities” of Syria after the ouster of Tehran-backed president Bashar al-Assad, state media reported on Thursday (December 12, 2024).

Regarding Syria, Iran “was really trying day and night to help in whatever way it could; we have to live with the realities of Syria; we look at them and act based on them,” Hossein Salami said, quoted by the official IRNA news agency.

“Strategies must change according to the circumstances; we cannot solve numerous global and regional issues with stagnation and employing the same tactics,” he added.

Iran has been a strong ally of the Assad family, whose decades-long rule of Syria ended on the weekend when a whirlwind rebel offensive took the capital Damascus.

Assad had long played a strategic role in Iran’s anti-Israel “axis of resistance”, particularly in facilitating the supply of weapons to Tehran’s ally Hezbollah in neighbouring Lebanon.

The axis of resistance includes Hezbollah as well as Hamas in Gaza, Huthi rebels in Yemen and some smaller Shia militia groups in Iraq.

Also on Thursday, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps strongly condemned “the abuse of the current instability in Syria by the US and the Zionist regime,” which is Iran’s term for Israel.

“The Resistance Front will not be passive in confronting any plan or scheme that seeks to disrupt the resistance and weaken the power and authority of the countries in the region,” the Revolutionary Guards said in a statement.

Turkey has forces in northern Syria, while in the south the Israeli army has sent troops into a UN-patrolled buffer zone on the countries’ shared border, east of the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights.

The United States also has troops based in Syria, where they have worked with Kurdish-led fighters battling the Islamic State group.

Ties between Tehran and Damascus peaked during the Syrian civil war that started in 2011, with the Revolutionary Guards sending what it called “military advisers” to help Assad.

The Syrian rebels now in power in Damascus have appointed Mohammed al-Bashir as head of a transitional government that will be in place until March 1, state media said on December 10, 2024.
| Photo Credit: AFP

As leader of a “Salvation Government” in Syria’s Idlib, Mohammad al-Bashir tried to bring a degree of order to the last major bastion of armed opposition against longtime leader Bashar al-Assad.

Now, the engineering graduate in his early 40s will lead the national government, presiding over a country divided and battered by 13 years of war, and seek to unite it in the traditional seat of power, Damascus.

Syria civil war highlights

Bashir was born in 1983 in Jabal al-Zawiya in Idlib province, an area mostly run in recent years by Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and allied factions with less influence.

He studied electrical and electronic engineering at Aleppo university, and Islamic and civil law at Idlib university, according to his biography, and once worked for Syria’s state gas company.

He had served as the head of the rebel administration’s self-styled “Salvation Government” since January, and previously held the role of its “development minister”.

The “Salvation Government”, with its own ministries, departments, judicial and security authorities, was set up in Idlib in 2017 to assist people in the rebel-held area cut off from government services.

It has since begun rolling out assistance in Aleppo, the first major city to fall from government hands after the rebels began a lightning November 27 offensive, capturing swathes of territory and taking the capital on Sunday, toppling Assad.

But managing a rebel region of some five million people is a totally different task from a national leadership role in a country torn by deep divisions and where many people live in poverty.

Beyond the rebels’ own divisions, other groups are also vying for control of former government strongholds.

Syrian rebel leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani told outgoing prime minister Mohammed al-Jalali that although Idlib is small and lacks resources, authorities there “have a very high-level of experience” and had had “great success” on some issues.

However, he noted the new government would also need to draw on experienced people from the outgoing administration.

In his first appearance outside the Idlib region, the bearded Bashir was seen in a video released Monday, sitting next to Jolani, wearing a smart grey suit and a gold watch, during a meeting with the outgoing premier.

Radwan Ziadeh, a senior fellow at the Arab Center Washington DC, said Bashir was “the closest” to Jolani and the rebel factions’ joint operations room.

But “the challenges he faces are very great”, Ziadeh said.

“Just as the revolution was a revolution for all Syrians, the transitional process will be the responsibility of all Syrians in order to ensure it succeeds and guarantees the peaceful transition to democracy,” he said.

The Syrian rebels now in power in Damascus appointed Mohammad al-Bashir as head of a transitional government that will be in place until March 1. File
| Photo Credit: AFP

The Syrian rebels now in power in Damascus appointed Mohammad al-Bashir as head of a transitional government that will be in place until March 1, state media said Tuesday (December 10, 2024).

Syria civil war LIVE Updates – December 10, 2024

On Sunday (December 8, 2024), the rebels led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) seized the capital Damascus in a lightning offensive, toppling President Bashar al-Assad who fled the country.

“The general command has tasked us with running the transitional government until March 1,” said a statement attributed to Mr. Bashir on state television’s Telegram account, referring to him as “the new Syrian Prime Minister”.

Before being tapped for the role, he had been head of the rebels’ so-called Salvation Government in northwest Syria and previously held the role of its Development Minister.

Also Tuesday (December 10, 2024), a source within the political affairs department of the Salvation Government told AFP Mr. Bashir would head the transitional government.

The Salvation Government, with its own ministries, departments, judicial and security authorities, was set up in the Idlib bastion in 2017 to assist people in the rebel-held area people cut off from government services.

It has since begun rolling out assistance in Aleppo, the first major city to fall from government hands after the rebels began their offensive.

A drone view shows buildings in Damascus, after Syrian rebels ousted President Bashar al-Assad, Syria December 10, 2024
| Photo Credit: Reuters

The Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Syrian Islamist militant group, had been preparing for months for a large-scale offensive against regime forces. The civil war was quiet for years, particularly after the regime of President Bashar al-Assad captured most of its lost territories — including Aleppo, Hama and Homs. The HTS, formerly al-Nusra Front, the Syrian arm of al-Qaeda, had built a statelet in Idlib, in northwestern Syria, under the leadership of its ‘emir’, Abu Muhammed al-Jolani. The HTS and its ally Syrian National Army (SNA), formerly the Free Syrian Army, had informed Turkiye, their patron, at least six months ago about the offensive plan, according to a Reuters report. And Ankara had given its tacit approval.

Mr. Assad’s troops were in a bad shape. Soldiers were poorly paid and lacked motivation. The country never recovered from the scars of the civil war. Under crippling American sanctions, its finances were in shambles. During the peak of the civil war, in 2015-16, Mr. Assad had heavily relied on his external allies for security — Russia, Iran and Hezbollah. Now, the situation was different. The Russians were focused on Ukraine. Iran lost a host of its Syria commanders to Israeli strikes. Hezbollah had been weakened in a year-long war with Israel. The HTS launched its offensive on November 27, the day Israel and Lebanon signed a ceasefire. On the 12th day, the Assad regime fell, sending tremors across the region.

Offensive begins

When they launched the offensive, the militants’ initial target was the western suburbs of Aleppo, Syria’s second largest city which Mr. Assad’s forces recaptured in 2016, after four years of a brutal battle. When HTS and SNA militants advanced towards Aleppo, they faced little resistance from government forces. Within four days, they reached Aleppo’s city centre.

The rapid collapse of government forces in Aleppo stunned both the militants and the regime alike. And Mr. Assad’s allies took note of it. The HTS’s victory triggered rebellion elsewhere in the country. In the south, local militias, who were backed by Jordan, started attacking government positions. In the northeast, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish militia, started advancing towards the eastern city of Deir Ezzour. The HTS, the main militant group, marched south from Aleppo towards Hama. On December 5, they entered Hama. Mr. Assad’s forces did not fight back. Some of them crossed the border to Iraq, seeking refuge. Others abandoned their uniforms and fled. The militants raided military depots and grabbed more weapons, making their position stronger. Mr. Assad turned to Iran and Russia for help. But Syrian and other Arab officials say both Russia and Iran told the Syrian President that they could not help him much this time. Iran, according to some reports, evacuated its personnel from Syria.

Shrinking circle

Mr. Assad’s circle was shrinking. His troops are not fighting back. He is not getting any external help. The militants are on a march from multiple fronts. From Hama, the HTS advanced towards Homs, a strategically important city that sits at an intersection between Syria’s Mediterranean coast and Damascus, the seat of power. If Homs falls, Damascus would be cut off from Mr. Assad’s coastal stronghold. On December 7, HTS-linked militants entered Homs, Syria’s third largest city. The next day, the Southern Front, militants from the south who had already taken Daara, entered Damascus first, followed by the HTS. Syria’s Prime Minister Muhammad al-Jalali said he would ensure a peaceful transition of power. The army chief said Mr. Assad’s government was over, bringing the almost 60-year rule of the Arab Socialist Ba’ath Party in Syria to a dramatic end. Later in the day, Russia said Mr. Assad and his family were in Moscow and granted political asylum.

Different rebel groups

The fall of the regime leaves a huge vacuum in Syria. Until December 8, the opposition militias had a common enemy–’Assad the tyrant’. Now, they are facing each other while trying to expand their influence. Roughly, there are four rebel coalitions in Syria. One, the HTS, led by Jolani. It is the most prominent one. HTS telegram channels already call him ‘President’ Shara, referring to his real name, Ahmed Hussein al-Shara. The HTS has built a statelet in Idlib and some 25,000 soldiers under its command. But that’s not enough to run a vast country like Syria. But the HTS certainly wants to play a key role in the new Syria, and has sent reconciliatory messages to the country’s different sects and militias. The SAA, another northern militia, is an ally of the HTS and a proxy of Turkiye.

Two, local militias in the south. They would not like to give up their privileges. That they entered Damascus first was a clear message to Jolani that he was not the only ‘rebel’ in the game. Three, the SDF, the Kurdish militia. In the northeast, the Kurds have enjoyed relative autonomy since the beginning of the civil war. But Turkiye was alarmed by the Kurds’s growing strengths and had launched incursions into Syria in the past, grabbing territories on the border. The SDF would not like to give up their autonomy, which could put them on a collision course with the HTS and the SAA, the Turkish backed groups. And lastly, there are Alawites, Mr. Assad’s sect who live mostly in the mountainous coastal regions of Latakia and Tartus, and enjoyed power for nearly 50 decades. The Alawites were the backbone of the Syrian army. They are unlikely to immediately trust Jolani, a committed Salafi Islamist militant, whose group in the past had carried out targeted attacks against Alawites.

Syria is a diverse country. It now has a diverse set of militias, without a central authority. And then there are external players. Turkiye, as the main supporter of northern militias (HTS and SAA), would seek to extend its influence in the government formation. Jordan would like to see the southern militias getting their due. The Gulf Arabs, who are wary of both Islamists and Turkiye, would be alarmed by the developments. Iran risks losing its territorial link with Hezbollah. Russia’s primary objective would be to safeguard its Tartus naval base and Khmeimim air base. And Israel has already sent troops to capture land in Syria’s Golan Heights and is carrying out massive air strikes aimed at destroying the Syrian army’s military capabilities.

Britain, Germany, France, Italy and several other European countries said Monday they would freeze all pending asylum requests from Syrians, a day after the ouster of president Bashar al-Assad.

While Berlin and other governments said they were watching the fast-moving developments in the war-ravaged nation, Austria signalled it would soon deport refugees back to Syria.

Far-right politicians elsewhere made similar demands, including in Germany — home to Europe’s largest Syrian community — at a time when immigration has become a hot-button issue across the continent.

Alice Weidel, of the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany, reacted with disdain to Sunday’s mass rallies by jubilant Syrians celebrating Assad’s downfall.

“Anyone in Germany who celebrates ‘free Syria’ evidently no longer has any reason to flee,” she wrote on X. “They should return to Syria immediately.”

World leaders and Syrians abroad watched in disbelief at the weekend as Islamist-led rebels swept into Damascus, ending Assad’s brutal rule while also sparking new uncertainty.

A German foreign ministry spokesman pointed out that “the fact that the Assad regime has been ended is unfortunately no guarantee of peaceful developments” in the future.

Germany has taken in almost one million Syrians, with most arriving in 2015-16 under ex-chancellor Angela Merkel.

Interior Minister Nancy Faeser said many Syrian refugees “now finally have hope of returning to their Syrian homeland” but cautioned that “the situation in Syria is currently very unclear”.

The Federal Office for Migration and Refugees had imposed a freeze on decisions for ongoing asylum procedures “until the situation is clearer”.

She added that “concrete possibilities of return cannot yet be predicted and it would be unprofessional to speculate in such a volatile situation”.

Rights group Amnesty International slammed Germany’s freeze on asylum decisions, stressing that for now “the human rights situation in the country is completely unclear”.

The head of the UN refugee agency also cautioned that “patience and vigilance” were needed on the issue of refugee returns.

‘Repatriation and deportation’

In Austria, where about 100,000 Syrians live, conservative Chancellor Karl Nehammer instructed the interior ministry “to suspend all ongoing Syrian asylum applications and to review all asylum grants”.

Interior Minister Gerhard Karner added he had “instructed the ministry to prepare an orderly repatriation and deportation programme to Syria”.

“The political situation in Syria has changed fundamentally and, above all, rapidly in recent days,” the ministry said, adding it is “currently monitoring and analysing the new situation”.

The French interior ministry said it too would put asylum requests from Syrians on hold, with authorities in Belgium, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Denmark, Sweden and Norway announcing similar moves.

Britain’s interior ministry said it was taking the same measure “whilst we assess the current situation”.

The Italian government said late Monday after a cabinet meeting that it too was suspending asylum request “in line with other European partners.”

The leader of the far-right Sweden Democrats, a coalition partner in the government, said residence permits for Syrian refugees should now be “reviewed”.

“Destructive Islamist forces are behind the change of power” in Syria, wrote their leader Jimmie Akesson on X.

“I see that groups are happy about this development here in Sweden. You should see it as a good opportunity to go home.”

In Greece, a government spokesman voiced hope that Assad’s fall will eventually allow “the safe return of Syrian refugees” to their country, but without announcing concrete measures.

‘Populist and irresponsible’

In Germany, the debate gained momentum as the country heads towards February elections.

Achim Brotel, president of a grouping of German communes, called for border controls to stop fleeing Assad loyalists reaching Germany.

The centre-right opposition CDU suggested that rejected Syrian asylum-seekers should now lose so-called subsidiary protection.

“If the reason for protection no longer applies, then refugees will have to return to their home country,” CDU legislator Thorsten Frei told Welt TV.

CDU MP Jens Spahn suggested that Berlin charter flights to Syria and offer 1,000 euros ($1,057) to “anyone who wants to return”.

A member of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats criticised the debate as “populist and irresponsible”.

Greens party deputy Anton Hofreiter also said “it is completely unclear what will happen next in Syria” and deportation talk was “completely out of place”.

Many Syrians in Germany have watched the events in their home country with great joy but prefer to wait and see before deciding whether to return.

“We want to go back to Syria,” said Mahmoud Zaml, 25, who works in an Arabic pastry shop in Berlin, adding that he hopes to help “rebuild” his country.

“But we have to wait a bit now,” he told AFP. “We have to see what happens and if it is really 100 percent safe, then we will go back to Syria.”

Israeli soldiers stand near tanks near the border with Syria on the Israeli side of the border on December 9, 2024 in Golan Heights.
| Photo Credit: Getty Images

Israeli troops that have moved into the buffer zone on the edge of the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights “constitute a violation” of the 1974 disengagement agreement between Israel and Syria, a UN spokesman said on Monday (December 9, 2024).

The UN peacekeeping force deployed in the Golan Heights, known as UNDOF, “informed the Israeli counterparts that these actions would constitute a violation of the 1974 disengagement agreement,” said Stephane Dujarric, spokesman for Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.

He said that the Israeli forces that entered the zone were still present in at least three locations.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced on Sunday he had ordered the army to “seize” the demilitarized zone in the Syrian-controlled part of the Golan Heights after rebels swept Syrian president Bashar al-Assad from power.

Also read:Fifty years ago | Israel seeks more planes, missiles from U.S.

Most of the Golan Heights plateau has been occupied since 1967 by Israel, which later annexed it in a move not recognized by most of the international community.

In 1974 a buffer zone was established to separate the Israeli-held and Syrian territories, with UN peacekeepers stationed there.

Israel’s troop deployment in Golan Heights

Amid the downfall of Assad, Israel announced a troop deployment to the Golan Heights citing “the possible entry of armed individuals into the buffer zone.”

Israeli forces “will continue to operate as long as necessary in order to preserve the buffer zone and defend Israel,” it added.

Israeli troops “have entered the area of separation and have been moving within that area where they remain in at least three locations throughout the area of separation,” Dujarric said.

“There should be no military forces or activities in the area of separation. And Israel and Syria must continue to uphold the terms of that 1974 agreement, and preserve stability in the Golan,” he said.

Damascus stirred back to life on Monday (December 9, 2024) at the start of a hopeful but uncertain era after militants seized the capital and President Bashar al-Assad fled to Russia, following 13 years of civil war and more than 50 years of his family’s brutal rule.

Heavy traffic returned to the streets and people ventured out after a nighttime curfew, but most shops remained shut militants milled about in the centre.

Arrangements for a transitional government

The main militant commander Ahmed al-Sharaa, better known as Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, met overnight with Mr. Assad’s Prime Minister Mohammed Jalali and Vice-President Faisal Mekdad to discuss arrangements for a transitional government, a source familiar with the discussions said.

Al Jazeera television reported that the transitional authority would be headed by Mohamed Al-Bashir, who ran the administration in a small pocket of rebel-held territory before the 12-day lightning offensive that swept into Damascus.

Syria’s banks would reopen on Tuesday and staff had been asked to return to offices, according to a Syrian central bank source and two commercial bankers. Syria’s currency would continue to be used, they said.

Fighters from the remote countryside milled about in the capital, clustering in the central Umayyad Square before Damascus’s great eight-century mosque.

“We had a purpose and a goal and now we are done with it. We want the state and security forces to be in charge,” said Firdous Omar, who said he had been battling the Assad government since 2011 and was now looking forward to laying down his weapon and returning to his job as a farmer in provincial Idlib.

The advance of a militia alliance spearheaded by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a former al-Qaeda affiliate, was a generational turning point for West Asia.

It ends a war that killed hundreds of thousands of people, caused one of the biggest refugee crises of modern times and left cities bombed to rubble, swathes of countryside depopulated and the economy hollowed out by global sanctions. Millions of refugees could finally go home from camps across Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan.

Assad’s government collapse

Mr. Assad’s fall wipes out one of the main bastions from which Iran and Russia wielded power across the region. Turkiye, long aligned with Mr. Assad’s foes, emerges strengthened, while Israel hailed it as an outcome of its blows to Mr. Assad’s Iran-backed allies.

The Arab world faces the challenge of reintegrating one of West Asia’s central states, while containing the militant Sunni Islam that underpinned the anti-Assad revolt but has also metastasized into the horrific sectarian violence of Islamic State.

HTS is still designated as a terrorist group by the United Nations, but has spent years trying to soften its image to reassure foreign states and minority groups within Syria.

A New History

The group’s leader Jolani, who spent years in U.S. custody as an insurgent in Iraq but broke with al-Qaeda and Islamic State to align his movement with more mainstream anti-Assad groups, has vowed to rebuild Syria.

“A new history, my brothers, is being written in the entire region after this great victory,” he told a huge crowd at the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus on Sunday. With hard work Syria would be “a beacon for the Islamic nation”.

Mr. Assad’s Prime Minister Mr. Jalali told Sky New Arabia he was ready to provide documents and assistance for the transfer of power.

The fate of Syria’s Army would be “left to the brothers who will take over the management of the country’s affairs”, Jalali said. “What concerns us today is the continuation of services for Syrians.”

Political prisoners freed

Mr. Assad’s police state was known for generations as one of the harshest in West Asia, holding hundreds of thousands of political prisoners. On Sunday, elated inmates poured out of jails. Reunited families wept in joy. Newly freed prisoners were filmed running through the Damascus streets holding up their hands to show how many years they had been in prison.

The White Helmets rescue organisation said it had dispatched emergency teams to search for hidden underground cells still believed to hold detainees. One of the final areas to fall to the rebels was the Mediterranean coast, heartland of Mr. Assad’s Alawite sect and site of Russia’s naval base.

Looting took place in the coastal city of Latakia on Sunday but had subsided on Monday, residents said, with few people in the streets and shortages of fuel and bread.

Two Alawite residents said that so far the situation had panned out better than they had expected, seemingly without sectarian retribution against Alawites. One said a friend had been visited at home by rebel fighters who told him to hand over any weapons he had, which he did.

Near Latakia, rebels had yet to enter the Assad family’s ancestral village of Qardaha, site of a huge mausoleum for Assad’s father who took power in the 1960s. A resident said all senior figures tied to Assad and his rule had left.

“Only the poor are left here. The rich guys and thieves are gone,” he said.

The Kremlin said it was too early to know the future of Russia’s military bases in Syria, but it would discuss the issue with the new authorities.

Israel, U.S. launch strikes

Israel said Assad’s fall was a direct consequence of Israel’s punishing assault on Iran’s Lebanese allies Hezbollah, who had propped up Assad for years but were decimated since September by an Israeli air and ground campaign.

Since rebels entered Damascus, Israel has struck sites in Syria. Israeli officials said those air strikes would carry on for days, to keep Assad’s former arsenal out of hostile hands.

The Israeli military would “destroy heavy strategic weapons throughout Syria, including surface-to-air missiles, air defence systems, surface-to-surface missiles, cruise missiles, long-range rockets and coastal missiles,” Defence Minister Israel Katz said.

Israel has also pushed tanks over the border into a demilitarised buffer zone. On Monday the Israeli military published photos of its forces in the Mount Hermon border area.

The United States, which has 900 soldiers on the ground in Syria operating alongside Kurdish-led forces in the east, said its forces hit around 75 targets in air strikes against Islamic State camps and operatives on Sunday.

“There’s a potential that elements in the area, such as ISIS, could try to take advantage of this opportunity and regain capability… Those strikes were focused on those cells,” Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said during a visit to Japan.

The U.S.-backed Kurdish forces have clashed with Turkey-backed rebels in the north. A video, verified by Reuters, showed rebels entering the town of Manbij, captured from the Kurdish forces on Monday.

Tehran:

The fall of Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad shattered the key link in Iran’s “axis of resistance”, but Tehran will look for ways to adapt to the new reality, analysts say.

After nearly 14 years of war in Syria, a lightning offensive launched by an Islamist-led rebel alliance brought Assad down.

The offensive began on November 27, just as a ceasefire took effect in the war between Iran’s powerful proxy Hezbollah and Israel.

Hezbollah had long used Syria as its key conduit for weapons and supplies from Iran.

With Assad gone, it is to be seen how Hezbollah will adapt, particularly after the staggering losses it suffered in its own recent war.

‘Frontline of resistance’

In the past, Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has the final say in his country’s affairs, has said that “Syria is on the frontline of the resistance against Israel”.

The axis of resistance, to use Tehran’s term, comprises Iran itself and a smattering of proxy forces united by their opposition to Israel, including Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Palestinian operator group Hamas and Yemen’s Huthi rebels, as well as smaller groups in Iraq.

Until Sunday, Assad’s government was a key component of the axis, and he would likely not have survived for as long as he did had it not been for Hezbollah and Iran’s military backing.

But the fall of Assad on Sunday was a major blow to the loose alliance, and the latest in a string of setbacks for Iran in its fight against Israel.

In recent months Israel has killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in Gaza and Hezbollah’s secretary general Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon, and decimated both groups’ mid-level leadership.

Iran also blames Israel for the killing of former Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh in an attack in Tehran in July.

Meanwhile, the Islamic republic has lost hundreds of its Revolutionary Guards in Syria over more than a decade of the country’s civil war, including in Israeli air strikes.

‘Destabilise’

Within Iran, some believe the Syrian rebels’ goal was to sever the link between Tehran and its allies.

With its influence now threatened in Syria, Iran “will no longer be able to support Hezbollah as it did before”, Mehdi Zakerian, an expert on international relations in Tehran, told AFP.

In Tehran’s official narrative, the revolt against Assad’s rule was an American-Israeli plot to “destabilise” the Middle East and redraw its political map.

Syria’s civil war was sparked by a crackdown on democracy protests inspired by the Arab Spring.

Iran sent to Syria what it presented as “military advisers” to support Assad’s army, at his request.

Shiite Muslim militias close to Iran also deployed, allowing Tehran to gain influence in Syria, which borders not only Lebanon but also Israel.

After the fall of Damascus on Sunday, the Iranian embassy was ransacked, an act that would have been previously unimaginable.

‘He did not pay attention’ 

And while Iran was a key backer of Assad, some official critiques of the former leader were emerging after his downfall.

“Bashar was an opportunity for Iran, but he did not pay enough attention to the recommendations of the Islamic Republic,” Iranian news agency Fars said.

Following the rebels’ declaration of victory, Iran’s foreign ministry said its policy towards any new Syrian government would depend on “developments in Syria and the region, as well as the behaviour of the actors”.

But the statement also said Iran expected to continue “friendly” relations with the country.

On Saturday, as rebels were swiftly advancing towards Damascus, Tehran had called on all sides in the conflict to engage in negotiations.

That statement by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was significant, not least because of its timing, and appeared to mark a change in tone.

Iran had long branded any form of opposition in Syria as “terrorism”.

On Sunday, with that opposition now seemingly in charge, Araghchi said: “Syria played an important role in supporting the resistance, but it is not the case that the resistance will stop without Syria.”

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

Smoke billows as people gather to celebrate the fall of the Syrian government, in Damascus, Syria, Sunday, Dec. 8, 2024.
| Photo Credit: AP

Officials of the Indian embassy in the Syrian capital Damascus are safe and are in contact with Indians in the conflict-hit country where the government of Bashar Al-Assad fell to a militant uprising on Sunday (December 8, 2024).

“Our embassy continues to remain operational in Damascus, Syria. The embassy is in touch with all Indian nationals, and they are safe. The embassy remains available to assist Indian nationals in Syria,” said a source in the Ministry of External Affairs.

FOLLOW MORE: Syria war LIVE updates: Russia grants asylum to Assad and his family ‘on humanitarian grounds’

Last week, the Ministry had said that India was following the developments in Syria “closely”, saying that around “90 Indian nationals” remain in the country.

Official spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal had said on Friday, “Our Mission remains in close contact with our nationals for their safety and security.” Various UN agencies have 14 Indian nationals employed with them, he had said.

New Delhi:

Syria’s future hinges on uncertainty after the abrupt fall of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Once thought unassailable, Assad’s rule collapsed under the pressure of a rapid offensive led by a group called Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), formerly known as the Al-Nusra Front affiliated with terror group Al-Qaeda, and allied factions. 

Bashar al-Assad came to power in 2000, succeeding his father, Hafez al-Assad, who ruled Syria with an iron grip for nearly three decades. Initially, there were hopes that Bashar would bring reform and openness to Syria. However, these aspirations were dashed as he maintained the repressive structure of his father’s regime.

READ | Fall Of Assads: How An Alawite Family Ruled Over A Sunni Nation For Decades

Assad’s legacy will forever be marred by his response to the protests in 2011, which escalated into a brutal civil war. Over half a million people have been killed, six million became refugees, and countless more are internally displaced. With military backing from Russia and Iran, Assad survived against a fragmented opposition, relying on Russian air power and Iranian-backed militias like Hezbollah.

Preoccupied with their own struggles – Russia in Ukraine and Iran facing regional challenges – neither could offer significant support. Within days, the rebels captured key cities like Aleppo, Hama, and Homs, before advancing into Damascus itself.

A Fragile Transition

Rebel leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani, known now by his real name, Ahmed al-Sharaa, announced the formation of a transitional authority. Syrian Prime Minister Mohammed al-Jalali has been appointed as the caretaker of state institutions.

READ | “End Of Era Of Tyranny”: Bashar Al-Assad Flees Syria As Rebels Move In

In a statement, al-Jalali expressed his willingness to cooperate with any leadership chosen by the Syrian people.

Despite these efforts, HTS’s history – rooted in al-Qaeda – casts a long shadow over its promises of a diplomatic and nationalist approach. Scepticism abounds regarding its long-term intentions and ability to govern a fractured country.

The end of Assad’s rule does not immediately translate to peace for Syrians. HTS’s past association with extremist groups raises fears of a harsh, authoritarian rule under the guise of Islamist governance. Millions of displaced Syrians, both within the country and abroad, face an uncertain future as they watch the unfolding events with hope and trepidation.

The Russian Setback

The fall of Assad marks a blow to Russian influence in the Middle East. Since its intervention in 2015, Russia has been the regime’s most steadfast supporter, maintaining strategic assets such as the Tartous naval facility and the Hmeimim airbase in Latakia. These bases are vital for projecting power across the Mediterranean and into Africa.

READ | How A Syrian Teen Triggered Al-Assad’s Fall With Graffiti 13 Years Ago

However, Russia’s military focus is currently consumed by its war in Ukraine. The loss of control in Syria raises questions about Moscow’s ability to safeguard its strategic footholds in the region. 

Iran Losing The Axis Of Resistance

For Iran, Assad’s downfall disrupts the “Axis of Resistance” that connects Tehran to Hezbollah in Lebanon through Syria. This network has been crucial for transferring weapons and exerting influence in the region. With Hezbollah weakened from its recent conflict with Israel and Iran’s proxies in Yemen and Iraq under pressure, Tehran’s war strategy will need a different approach.

READ | Mass Hangings, Torture That Destroyed Hope: Syria’s ‘Human Slaughterhouse’

Iran’s preoccupation with Israel, which it views as an existential threat, further limits its capacity to respond effectively in Syria. Israel’s recent targeting of Iranian assets has compounded these challenges, leaving Tehran on the defensive.

Turkey’s Role

Turkey’s role in Assad’s fall remains ambiguous. While President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had long advocated for a diplomatic resolution to the Syrian conflict, his calls were consistently rebuffed by Assad. Turkey, home to over three million Syrian refugees, has a vested interest in resolving the conflict to facilitate their return.

READ | Where Is Bashar Al-Assad? Questions Over Syrian President’s Whereabouts

Ankara has denied direct involvement in the HTS offensive, but analysts suggest that Turkey’s tacit approval or indirect support may have played a role. Erdogan’s priorities include securing Turkey’s borders and countering Kurdish militias in northern Syria.

Israel’s Strategic Thinking

For Israel, the collapse of Assad’s regime represents both opportunity and risk. The fall of Iran’s primary ally in Syria disrupts the supply chain to Hezbollah, but the emergence of HTS as a dominant force introduces new uncertainties.

Israel has reinforced its presence along the Golan Heights, preparing for potential spillovers or attempts by rebels to seize Syrian army stockpiles. The Israeli military is also wary of Iran and Hezbollah exploiting the chaos to acquire advanced weaponry.