On August 15, 2021, the Taliban swiftly took over Kabul following the withdrawal of the US-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), marking a significant diplomatic setback for India. The Taliban were believed to have support from the Tehreek-e-Taliban-e-Pakistan (TTP) operating around the Durand Line, as well as from moderates in Doha.

Amidst the ensuing chaos, India was forced to shut down its embassy in Kabul, evacuating diplomats and citizens. New Delhi had invested heavily in Afghanistan, but the future seemed uncertain under the shadow of conflict. As of August 2020, there were approximately 1,710 Indians in Afghanistan, working in sectors such as banking, IT, construction, healthcare, NGOs, telecom, security, and education, as well as with Afghan and UN missions.

Aid to Afghanistan

The Taliban’s return and the subsequent withdrawal of international forces led many countries, including India, to pull out. However, the Taliban leadership soon realized that running a government required more than just military might-it needed external funds and assistance. New Delhi has cautiously responded to Kabul’s appeals for aid. Important delegations visited Afghanistan, and a technical mission was established in June 2022 to better understand and coordinate humanitarian efforts.

Since 2001, India has committed over USD 3 billion to development and reconstruction projects in Afghanistan. Bilateral trade between India and Afghanistan was valued at USD 1.5 billion in 2019-20. India has supported projects such as a new Parliament building in Kabul and two major river dams. More than 500 projects span across 34 Afghan provinces, addressing critical areas such as power, water supply, road connectivity, healthcare, education, agriculture, and capacity building.

Various bilateral and multilateral meetings have taken place, and the Union Budget for 2024-25 allocated Rs. 200 crores to Afghanistan. This represents a decrease from Rs. 350 crores in the 2021-22 budget.

The Taliban have urged India to resume development projects, arguing that such initiatives would create job opportunities, alleviate poverty, and support development.

The China Factor

India’s outreach to Afghanistan is influenced by the regional dynamics, including China’s growing activity. Initially excluded from China’s expansive Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Asia, Afghanistan has seen increased Chinese involvement and funding. A Parliamentary Committee on External Affairs report from last year noted the strategic importance for India to deepen ties with its smaller neighbours in response to China’s BRI and America’s Indo-Pacific vision.

China is courting the Taliban to counter the Uyghur separatist movement. Beijing wants the Taliban to address the Eastern Turkestan Islamic Movement, which, according to a 2021 UN report, is active in Badakhshan, Faryab, Kabul, and Nuristan provinces. The report indicated that the group seeks to establish a Uyghur state in Xinjiang, China, and facilitates the movement of fighters from Afghanistan to China.

Despite its efforts, Beijing’s support for Afghanistan has not met all expectations. China has provided funds, machinery, and technical support, but not as generously as Afghanistan hoped. The country’s economic growth was recorded at -6.2% in 2022, according to Afghanistan’s National Statistics and Information Authority (NSIA).

Pakistan No Longer a Friend

Pakistan has long served as a training ground and launchpad for the Mujahideen in their struggle against Soviet forces. Reportedly supported by the CIA, Peshawar in Pakistan quickly became a crucial hub for the fighters. This is well-documented in The Bear Trap by Brigadier Mohammed Yousuf and Mark Adkin. Yousuf, who led Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) Afghan desk from 1983 to 1987, and Adkin, a major in the British Army, detail the logistical and military support Pakistan received from the CIA during the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan.

Beyond the USA and the former USSR, several other countries have played strategic games in Afghanistan due to its geopolitical significance. This has resulted in the division of its people along ethnic and cultural lines to serve the interests of these external powers. Peter Hopkirk chronicles this history in The Great Game, a term coined by British intelligence officer Captain Arthur Conolly during the British occupation of the country in the 19th century.

Despite their ethnic differences, Afghans have resisted aggressors for centuries. During the Soviet era, Pashtuns from the south and Tajiks and Uzbeks from the north employed guerrilla tactics, striking and retreating across the country’s rugged terrain.

A paper by Amna Puri-Mirza, a researcher specializing in the Middle East, published in September 2022, reveals that as of 2020, Afghanistan’s population of approximately 33 million was composed of 42% Pashtuns, 27% Tajiks, and 9% Hazaras. The CIA World Factbook estimates that in 2020, Afghan Persian (Dari) and Pashto were spoken by 77% and 48% of the population, respectively.

The Durand Line, established in November 1893 as the official boundary between undivided India and Afghanistan, remains contentious. Afghanistan has never accepted this boundary, seeking its shift eastward to incorporate Pashtun-majority areas in Pakistan. This disagreement has led to intermittent conflicts.

Relations between Islamabad and Kabul have deteriorated as Pakistan has increased its pressure on Afghanistan for harbouring “Pakistani Taliban” and for alleged strikes on Pakistani soil. Frequent gunfights have led to the closure of the border, causing significant disruptions for Afghan traders. Key border crossings like Torkham and Spin Boldak have been particularly affected, with long queues of stranded vehicles.

India has faced setbacks in its involvement in Afghanistan over the past three decades. In the ongoing great game, countries like China, Russia, and Iran are influential in shaping Afghanistan’s future, and India must navigate these shifting alliances carefully.

(Jayanta Bhattacharya is a senior journalist writing on polls and politics, conflict, farmer and human interest issues)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author

Karachi:

As the clock ticked down to the November 1 deadline Pakistan set for undocumented migrants to leave the country, Muhammad Rahim boarded a bus from Karachi to the Afghan border.

“We’d live here our whole life if they didn’t send us back,” said the 35-year-old Afghan national, who was born in Pakistan, married a Pakistani woman, and raised his Pakistan-born children in the port city – but has no Pakistani identity documents.

The Taliban government in Afghanistan said some 60,000 Afghans returned between September 23 to October 22 from Pakistan, which announced on October 4 it would expel undocumented migrants who do not leave.

And recent daily returnee figures are three times higher than normal, Taliban refugee ministry spokesman Abdul Mutaleb Haqqani told Reuters on October 26.

Near Karachi’s Sohrab Goth area – home to one of Pakistan’s largest Afghan settlements – a bus service operator named Azizullah said he had laid on extra services to cope with the exodus. Nearby, lines formed before competitor bus services headed to Afghanistan.

“Before I used to run one bus a week, now we have four to five a week,” said Azizullah, who – like all the Afghan migrants Reuters interviewed – spoke on condition that he be identified by only one name due to the sensitivity of the matter.

Reuters interviewed seven refugee families in Sohrab Goth, as well as four Taliban and Pakistani officials, community leaders, aid workers, and advocates, who said Islamabad’s threat – and a subsequent rise in state-backed harassment – has torn families apart and pushed even Afghans with valid papers to leave.

The Pakistani Interior Ministry did not immediately return a request for comment. Foreign Ministry spokesman Mumtaz Zahra Baloch said in a statement that the expulsion plan was compliant with international norms and principles: “Our record of the last forty years in hosting millions of our Afghan brothers and sisters speaks for itself.”

Pakistan is home to over 4 million Afghan migrants and refugees, about 1.7 million of whom are undocumented, according to Islamabad. Afghans make up the largest portion of migrants – many came after the Taliban retook Afghanistan in 2021, but a large number have been present since the 1979 Soviet invasion.

The expulsion threat came after suicide bombings this year which the government – without providing evidence – said involved Afghans. Islamabad has also blamed them for smuggling and other terrorist attacks.

Cash-strapped Pakistan, navigating record inflation and a tough International Monetary Fund bailout program, also said undocumented migrants have drained its resources for decades.

Despite the challenges facing migrants, Pakistan is the only home many of them know and a sanctuary from the economic deprivation and extreme social conservatism that Afghanistan is grappling with, said Samar Abbas of the Sindh Human Rights Defenders Network, which is helping 200 Afghans seeking to remain.

RISE IN RETURNS

In early September, an average of 300 people crossed the border into Afghanistan daily, according to international organizations working on migration issues, who provided data on condition that they not be identified due to the sensitivity of the matter. After Islamabad announced the November deadline, crossings jumped to roughly 4,000, the organizations said.

These figures are small compared to the number of people to be affected in the coming days. The information minister for Balochistan province, which borders Afghanistan, told Reuters it is opening three more border crossings.

For weeks, state-run television has run a countdown to November 1 on the top of its screens.

Federal Interior Minister Sarfaraz Bugti warned that law enforcement agencies will start removing “illegal immigrants who have … no justification” being in Pakistan after Tuesday.

They will be processed at “holding centers” and then deported, he told reporters, adding that women, children and the elderly would be treated “respectfully.” Reuters could not determine how long they might be detained in the centers.

Pakistani citizens who help undocumented migrants obtain false identities or employment will face legal action, Bugti warned.

“Post-November will be very chaotic and there will be chaos in the Afghan refugee camps,” said Abbas, the advocate.

FEAR AND DESPERATION

The U.N. refugee agency UNHCR and the International Organization for Migration (IOM) said Pakistan’s plans create “serious protection risks” for women and girls forced to leave. Restrictions in Afghanistan, especially on female NGO workers, have led to shrinking employment opportunities for women there.

While Pakistan says it will not target Afghans with legal status, many with proper documents also find themselves being targeted, according to migrant advocates.

UNHCR data shows that 14,700 documented Afghans left Pakistan as of October 18, 2023, more than double the 6,039 in all of last year.

The agency said in a statement that 78 percent of recent returning Afghans it spoke to cited fear of arrest in Pakistan as reason for their departure.

There are more than 2.2 million Afghan migrants in Pakistan with some form of documentation recognized by the government that conveys temporary residence rights.

Roughly 1.4 million of them hold Proof of Registration (PoR) cards that expired on June 30, leaving them vulnerable. Islamabad says it will not take action against people with invalid cards, but Abbas told Reuters that police harassment has ramped up since the expulsion threat.

More than a dozen migrants that Reuters spoke to corroborated the claim, which was also repeated by Taliban diplomats in Pakistan.

Karachi East Police Superintendent Uzair Ahmed told Reuters that while there might be “one or two” instances of harassment, it was non-systemic and offenders would be investigated.

Many Afghans with legal status told Reuters they feel compelled to leave out of fear of being separated from family members without documentation.

Hajira, a 42-year-old widow in Sohrab Goth, told Reuters she has the right to remain in Pakistan, as do two of her four sons. The other two don’t.

Fearing separation from her children, she plans on leaving with her sons and their families before the deadline expires.

Majida, a 31-year-old who was born in Pakistan, lives with her husband and their six children in an apartment complex in Sohrab Goth, a squalid suburb whose narrow streets are filled with heaps of garbage.

She said her family has PoR cards but has still been subject to harassment: a brother-in-law and nephew were detained by local authorities for several hours before being released. Reuters could not independently verify her account.

When Majida fell ill earlier in October, her husband refused to help her pick up medication at a nearby pharmacy out of fear of detention.

“We don’t have a home or work (in Afghanistan),” she said. “Obviously, we think of Pakistan as our home, we’ve been living here for so long.”

PRESSURE IN AFGHANISTAN

Back in Afghanistan, the influx of returning migrants and refugees has exerted pressure on already limited resources that are stretched by international sanctions on the banking sector and cuts in foreign aid after the Taliban takeover.

The Afghan Ministry of Refugees says it intends to register returnees and then house them in temporary camps. The Taliban administration said it will try to find returnees jobs.

The unemployment rate more than doubled from the period immediately before the Taliban takeover to June 2023, according to the World Bank. U.N. agencies say around two-thirds of the population is in need of humanitarian aid.

“We had our own barbecue shop and meat shop here. We had … everything. We were guests here,” said 18-year-old Muhammad just before he boarded Azizullah’s bus back to Afghanistan.

“You should think of it this way: that the country is kicking out its guests.”

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)