Sri Lanka’s northern Tamil voters are torn this presidential election, between a candidate who may win, and one who will certainly lose.

While some are backing one of the frontrunners among the Sinhalese candidates, others have decided to support a Tamil candidate. Every voter knows well that “Tamil common candidate” P. Ariyanethiran — fielded jointly by some political and civil society groups based in the island nation’s north and east — cannot win, given the numeric reality of Sri Lanka’s electoral map. The Sinhalese majority make up around 75 % of the country that was torn apart by bitter ethnic conflict between the two communities. All the same, many Tamil voters see him personifying their grievances.

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“After the civil war ended in 2009, our people hoped that even if their political rights were denied, they could live with some security and dignity. Listening to our [Tamil] political leadership, they backed different candidates in past elections. What did we gain?” asks Fr. Santhiyogu Marcus, President of the Mannar Citizens Committee, an influential civil society group in the coastal district.

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For at least two decades Tamils had a straightforward choice and delivered a bloc vote — except when the rebel Tamil Tigers enforced a boycott in 2005 — in the presidential elections. They despised the Rajapaksa clan, accused of serious human rights violations during and after the civil war. They emphatically rejected Mahinda Rajapaksa in 2010 and 2015, and Gotabaya Rajapaksa in 2019. The main Tamil party representing Tamils of the north and east, too, invariably backed the chief challenger of the Rajapaksas in every national election.

Altered landscape

However, this is the first election campaign in 20 years that is not dominated by a Rajapaksa surname. Two years after a people’s uprising evicted Mr. Gotabaya from office in 2022, when the island faced a crushing economic crisis, Sri Lanka’s political terrain looks starkly different. The September 21 election, the first poll since, has three candidates at the fore – incumbent Ranil Wickremesinghe, opposition politicians Sajith Premadasa and Anura Kumara Dissanayake, one of whom is expected to win.

“Ariyanethiran is not seen as an individual who will win this contest, but as someone who is a symbol of our identity and struggles,” Fr. Marcus observes. Many acknowledge his bleak electoral prospects but say they will back him nevertheless, to deliver a “strong message” to the southern political establishment and the international community. On the other hand, critics of the move term it “political suicide”. Abandoning pragmatic negotiation with the southern leadership would further isolate Tamils and weaken their bargaining power, they contend.

Fifteen years after the civil war ended, after claiming several tens of thousands of civilian lives, Tamils in the north and east are unable to live in peace. Their lands are systematically grabbed by state agencies, their call for truth and justice over alleged war crimes remain, the whereabouts of scores of forcibly missing persons are unknown, a just political solution is elusive, and the war-battered economy has not created decent jobs or livelihoods. 

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In this context, sections see backing the Tamil candidate as a way of airing their frustration – not just with the national leadership, but also with their own, deeply divided Tamil political leadership. “Tamil leaders are showing us that they cannot be united in this struggle. The parties have split and there are so many splinter groups. They have weakened our position so much,” says K. Rajachandran, leader of a Jaffna-based fisheries cooperative. “So, we want to tell our Tamil politicians, even if you can’t stand united, the Tamil people will come together behind this common candidate.”

Fragmented Tamil polity

The northern Tamil polity is in shreds, with prominent leaders taking poll positions ranging from backing a southern candidate; campaigning for the Tamil “common candidate”; to boycotting the polls altogether.

The once-powerful Tamil National Alliance (TNA), led by the prominent Ilankai Tamil Arasu Katchi (ITAK), has collapsed, with two other constituents breaking away some years ago. Even the ITAK is marred by serious internal divisions, seen in the conflicting positions aired by its members on a daily basis in the run up to the polls. The contradictions within were no secret earlier but have become more pronounced after the passing of senior Tamil leader R. Sampanthan in June.

Earlier this month, the ITAK, through its Jaffna legislator M.A. Sumanthiran, announced its support for presidential aspirant Mr. Premadasa, a popular choice among Tamils who have decided to back a southern leader. Explaining its decision on Monday, the party said although none of the three leading candidates’ manifestos fully accommodated Tamils’ basic political demands, Mr. Premadasa’s assurance was “in relative terms, somewhat satisfactory”. In his manifesto, Mr. Premadasa has promised to fully implement the 13^th Amendment, which devolves some power to the provinces, and swiftly hold elections to the now-defunct provincial councils.

Meanwhile, ITAK legislator Sivagnanam Shritharan is canvassing for Mr. Ariyanethiran, and senior leader Mavai Senathirajah continues to give mixed signals.

“Voters are finding it very confusing this election,” notes Rajany Rajeshwary, founder of Vallamai, a Jaffna-based movement for social change. While she appreciates why some people are drawn to the Tamil candidate, her concern is that if he does poorly, it will defeat its political motive. “I fear that our votes will be split, and we will expose our weakness,” she says. Tamils, she argues, must also factor in concerns of Tamil-speaking Muslims [they identify as a separate ethnic group] and fellow Tamils of the hill country to forge a strong, consolidated political position.

Meanwhile some voters, especially youth, are disillusioned. They voice little hope about their future, regardless of a “tactical vote” for a Sinhalese contestant or a “principled vote” for a Tamil candidate this election. “Some of us have no plans or resources to go abroad,” says Marynathan Edison, a fisherman and environmentalist in Mannar. “We will live in this country until we die. In the south, they tell us ‘think and vote as a Sri Lankan’. How can I do that when their discriminatory actions keep reminding me that I am Tamil?” he asks.