Giani Singh (name changed), 45, drives a yellow taxi in New York. David Brooks, 63, a New Yorker at heart, is among the most cerebral columnists of The New York Times. They may find little in common should they meet currently but will find themselves agreeing on the most vexatious question in the US today: who will win the Presidential election in November.

Gianni wants Trump to win. Originally from Ludhiana, he came to the US as a teenager and did all he needed to survive, including two local marriages. He finally landed a US citizenship three years ago. Today, he owns six taxis, drives one himself for a bare six hours a day, and owns a house in Queens.

“Immigrants Commit Crimes”

He voted Trump in 2020 and will do so again. Trump, he says, kept prices down. “Today, with 8% interest, I don’t know how people live,” he told us last week. Trump will be hard on immigration (he threatens to deport an estimated 11 million illegal immigrants). “I know I am one and I have my own stories but, Sirjee, these immigrants commit lots of crimes. We see it daily in New York. ” And, finally, “Trump will be good for India”.

Brooks, a Republican, does not want Trump to win. But in a recent column, he clinically listed the “five turbines of Trumpism” which told his head differently.  

One, Americans favour dynamism over compassion. The fastest growing US states – Texas, Florida, Montana – are ruled by Republicans; the slowest and the stagnant by Democrats. “The red model gives you low housing costs, lower taxes and business vitality. The blue model gives you high housing costs, high taxes and high inequality.” Democrats want to expand the welfare state like in Europe. But voters tell pollsters that the economy and immigration are their top concerns and Republicans score better on handling those.

Democrats, The ‘Elite’ Clique

Two, in a reversal from recent history, Democrats have become the party of the college graduate elite and Republicans of the working class. “The biggest divide in the US today is the diploma divide,” Brooks has often written. One of his most perceptive recent columns was on how the educated elite in the US unwittingly conveys its contempt for the majority not with a college degree (“Deplorables,” Hillary Clinton infamously described Trump supporters in 2016). And the “deplorable” deeply resent that the Democrats are the party of the ruling class. 

Three, the less educated are in a funk because of growing social and moral immorality. As Brooks wrote: “The things that derail their lives are broken relationships, infidelity, out-of-wedlock births, addictions, family conflict and crime. When Republicans talk about immigration, crime, faith, family and the flag, they are talking about ways to preserve the social and moral order. Democrats are great at talking about economic solidarity, but not moral and cultural solidarity.”

Four, the general mood in the US is of distrust and dissatisfaction. According to Gallup and other pollsters, only 25% Americans are satisfied with the direction of the country; 60% feel the country is in decline and the “system is broken”; 69% agree that the “political and economic elite don’t care about hard-working people”, and 63% agree that “experts in this country don’t understand the lives of people like me”.

Trump Knows How To Harness Unhappiness

In this mood, people are disinclined to believe the Kamala Harris promise of a better life based on a more caring state. They believe that irrespective of the promises the elite make, in the end, it only adds to their growing power. And Trump knows better than any other populist how to harness this general dissatisfaction.

Five, Harris has been unlike Clinton and Obama, both of whom won two terms by sticking rigidly to the centrist median on major issues. They made sure they were never seen as a representative of the progressives in the Democratic party. Kamala Harris let her progressive side lean on the critical decision of the choice of the Vice-Presidential candidate. 

Pennsylvania is likely to be the most critical swing state in this election. Harris could have chosen its popular governor, Josh Shapiro, to be her election mate, but Shapiro was seen as a moderate and Harris showed “over-confidence”, says Brooks, in choosing a governor (Tim Walz) of a state she was winning anyway, Minnesota. 

This is, of course, prime time for election punditry in the US, and one of the reigning gurus in this field is Nate Silver, poker player extraordinaire, baseball-statistician-turned-poll-predictor best known for predicting Obama’s scale of victory in 2012 (332 electoral college votes out of 538) when it was widely seen as a close race and for naming the victor in all 50 US states. Silver too is leaning towards a Trump victory at this time, because of the electoral college advantage of the Republicans, which effectively gives the smaller of the seven swing states (like Wisconsin) disproportionate weightage in shaping the final verdict, even negating the popular vote.

What Harris Will Really Need

Hillary Clinton polled 65 million votes to Trump’s 62 million in 2016 but lost the electoral college vote by 227-304. This November too, it is not unlikely that the same fate visits Harris. According to Silver’s latest prediction, Harris would need to lead Trump in the popular vote by more than 3% to have a statistical chance of getting 270 electoral college votes. Harris had a dream five-week run between Biden opting out on July 21 and the Democratic National Convention but the bounce has slowed down. According to the latest Real Clear Politics Nationwide Polling Average, Harris is only 1.8% ahead of Trump in the popular vote. More importantly, she has only a 0.8 lead over Trump in the seven swing states.

Repeated polling has shown that the two most important issues for the electorate are the economy and immigration and Trump continues to lead Harris on those issues, despite ground realities. Bipartisan economists have proved that Trump’s plan to erect tariff walls on imports, with steep ones for Chinese imports, will raise prices and harm the poor. Trump stonewalled a bipartisan tough immigration in the Congress because it would have impaired his election rhetoric of deporting illegal immigrants, a plan that is logistically impossible and would wreck the economy. 

‘Unserious’ Trump

Trump is, as Harris famously labelled him, “unserious”; labelling him a narcissist is doing disservice to that word; he is a misogynist who has little support among young women;, everybody knows he does not have any values and beliefs except the most convenient ones, and the media knows he plays them because he craves publicity, positive or negative. And yet, because he is who he is, he can affirm contradictory beliefs and yet not lose any support. 

Abortion is one issue on which Harris has him on the run. The Supreme Court that overturned the constitutional right to abortion was put together by Trump. He has often crowed about the verdict, which has led to anti-abortion statutes in 22 states. One out of seven voters rate abortion as the third most important electoral issue. Seeing Harris’ growing lead on the issue which looms larger each day he has flip-flopped. One day he weighed against a Florida initiative to dramatically shorten the period for a legal abortion but seeing the pro-lifers’ blowback, promptly affirmed support for the initiative the next day. 

Media in the US has been replete recently with revelations that should have made MAGA followers wince.  A writer in The Atlantic profiled a key associate of Trump’s presidency, Kashyap (Kash) Patel, who jeopardised the life of US Seals on a rescue mission in Nigeria by faking a go-ahead by Nigerian authorities for USAF planes to enter Nigerian air space. When exposed, Patel shrugged off his breathtaking lie with “Nobody got injured so how does it matter?” Trump acknowledges Kash is somewhat crazy, but says, “You need crazies”. 

Nothing Matters For Trump Loyalists

The NYT carried a column on how the Federal Election Commission has little oversight on how the hundreds of millions of dollars ostensibly raised for Trump’s election campaign are actually used. The monies are sat over by Trump’s family, and it is a reasonable inference from the money trails that significant sums are diverted toward fighting his many legal cases. But for Trump bhakts, nothing matters. 

Allan Lichtman is a historian who has correctly called all recent elections, including 2016 and 2020, on a proprietary 13-point scale, weighted towards serious issues (like how the economy has done in the period between the two elections and how the US is perceived internationally), in which the character of the candidate matters only for two of the points. On that template, which also totally ignores election polls and surveys, Harris wins by scoring seven points.

‘Prosecutor’ Harris vs ‘Bully’ Trump

It would be fair to say that with less than 60 days to go, the election is too close to call. Much will depend on the debate on Tuesday evening (Wednesday morning in India). This may sound unbelievable, but Trump and Harris have never formally met. Never. Ever. Their first face-to-face promises to be gladiatorial. Will Prosecutor Harris put Convicted Felon and Bully Trump in the dock? 

White men, 40% of the electorate, favour Trump overwhelmingly. Should Harris stand up to Trump, or dominate him, she could give the lie to Trump’s taunt that Putin and the like will chew up Harris. That could nudge the critical white male vote in not only Wisconsin (10 electoral college votes) but, perhaps, more importantly in Pennsylvania with 20 electoral college votes. 

(Ajay Kumar is a senior journalist. He is former Managing Editor, Business Standard, and former Executive Editor, The Economic Times.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author

Giani Singh (name changed), 45, drives a yellow taxi in New York. David Brooks, 63, a New Yorker at heart, is among the most cerebral columnists of The New York Times. They may find little in common should they meet currently but will find themselves agreeing on the most vexatious question in the US today: who will win the Presidential election in November.

Gianni wants Trump to win. Originally from Ludhiana, he came to the US as a teenager and did all he needed to survive, including two local marriages. He finally landed a US citizenship three years ago. Today, he owns six taxis, drives one himself for a bare six hours a day, and owns a house in Queens.

“Immigrants Commit Crimes”

He voted Trump in 2020 and will do so again. Trump, he says, kept prices down. “Today, with 8% interest, I don’t know how people live,” he told us last week. Trump will be hard on immigration (he threatens to deport an estimated 11 million illegal immigrants). “I know I am one and I have my own stories but, Sirjee, these immigrants commit lots of crimes. We see it daily in New York. ” And, finally, “Trump will be good for India”.

Brooks, a Republican, does not want Trump to win. But in a recent column, he clinically listed the “five turbines of Trumpism” which told his head differently.  

One, Americans favour dynamism over compassion. The fastest growing US states – Texas, Florida, Montana – are ruled by Republicans; the slowest and the stagnant by Democrats. “The red model gives you low housing costs, lower taxes and business vitality. The blue model gives you high housing costs, high taxes and high inequality.” Democrats want to expand the welfare state like in Europe. But voters tell pollsters that the economy and immigration are their top concerns and Republicans score better on handling those.

Democrats, The ‘Elite’ Clique

Two, in a reversal from recent history, Democrats have become the party of the college graduate elite and Republicans of the working class. “The biggest divide in the US today is the diploma divide,” Brooks has often written. One of his most perceptive recent columns was on how the educated elite in the US unwittingly conveys its contempt for the majority not with a college degree (“Deplorables,” Hillary Clinton infamously described Trump supporters in 2016). And the “deplorable” deeply resent that the Democrats are the party of the ruling class. 

Three, the less educated are in a funk because of growing social and moral immorality. As Brooks wrote: “The things that derail their lives are broken relationships, infidelity, out-of-wedlock births, addictions, family conflict and crime. When Republicans talk about immigration, crime, faith, family and the flag, they are talking about ways to preserve the social and moral order. Democrats are great at talking about economic solidarity, but not moral and cultural solidarity.”

Four, the general mood in the US is of distrust and dissatisfaction. According to Gallup and other pollsters, only 25% Americans are satisfied with the direction of the country; 60% feel the country is in decline and the “system is broken”; 69% agree that the “political and economic elite don’t care about hard-working people”, and 63% agree that “experts in this country don’t understand the lives of people like me”.

Trump Knows How To Harness Unhappiness

In this mood, people are disinclined to believe the Kamala Harris promise of a better life based on a more caring state. They believe that irrespective of the promises the elite make, in the end, it only adds to their growing power. And Trump knows better than any other populist how to harness this general dissatisfaction.

Five, Harris has been unlike Clinton and Obama, both of whom won two terms by sticking rigidly to the centrist median on major issues. They made sure they were never seen as a representative of the progressives in the Democratic party. Kamala Harris let her progressive side lean on the critical decision of the choice of the Vice-Presidential candidate. 

Pennsylvania is likely to be the most critical swing state in this election. Harris could have chosen its popular governor, Josh Shapiro, to be her election mate, but Shapiro was seen as a moderate and Harris showed “over-confidence”, says Brooks, in choosing a governor (Tim Walz) of a state she was winning anyway, Minnesota. 

This is, of course, prime time for election punditry in the US, and one of the reigning gurus in this field is Nate Silver, poker player extraordinaire, baseball-statistician-turned-poll-predictor best known for predicting Obama’s scale of victory in 2012 (332 electoral college votes out of 538) when it was widely seen as a close race and for naming the victor in all 50 US states. Silver too is leaning towards a Trump victory at this time, because of the electoral college advantage of the Republicans, which effectively gives the smaller of the seven swing states (like Wisconsin) disproportionate weightage in shaping the final verdict, even negating the popular vote.

What Harris Will Really Need

Hillary Clinton polled 65 million votes to Trump’s 62 million in 2016 but lost the electoral college vote by 227-304. This November too, it is not unlikely that the same fate visits Harris. According to Silver’s latest prediction, Harris would need to lead Trump in the popular vote by more than 3% to have a statistical chance of getting 270 electoral college votes. Harris had a dream five-week run between Biden opting out on July 21 and the Democratic National Convention but the bounce has slowed down. According to the latest Real Clear Politics Nationwide Polling Average, Harris is only 1.8% ahead of Trump in the popular vote. More importantly, she has only a 0.8 lead over Trump in the seven swing states.

Repeated polling has shown that the two most important issues for the electorate are the economy and immigration and Trump continues to lead Harris on those issues, despite ground realities. Bipartisan economists have proved that Trump’s plan to erect tariff walls on imports, with steep ones for Chinese imports, will raise prices and harm the poor. Trump stonewalled a bipartisan tough immigration in the Congress because it would have impaired his election rhetoric of deporting illegal immigrants, a plan that is logistically impossible and would wreck the economy. 

‘Unserious’ Trump

Trump is, as Harris famously labelled him, “unserious”; labelling him a narcissist is doing disservice to that word; he is a misogynist who has little support among young women;, everybody knows he does not have any values and beliefs except the most convenient ones, and the media knows he plays them because he craves publicity, positive or negative. And yet, because he is who he is, he can affirm contradictory beliefs and yet not lose any support. 

Abortion is one issue on which Harris has him on the run. The Supreme Court that overturned the constitutional right to abortion was put together by Trump. He has often crowed about the verdict, which has led to anti-abortion statutes in 22 states. One out of seven voters rate abortion as the third most important electoral issue. Seeing Harris’ growing lead on the issue which looms larger each day he has flip-flopped. One day he weighed against a Florida initiative to dramatically shorten the period for a legal abortion but seeing the pro-lifers’ blowback, promptly affirmed support for the initiative the next day. 

Media in the US has been replete recently with revelations that should have made MAGA followers wince.  A writer in The Atlantic profiled a key associate of Trump’s presidency, Kashyap (Kash) Patel, who jeopardised the life of US Seals on a rescue mission in Nigeria by faking a go-ahead by Nigerian authorities for USAF planes to enter Nigerian air space. When exposed, Patel shrugged off his breathtaking lie with “Nobody got injured so how does it matter?” Trump acknowledges Kash is somewhat crazy, but says, “You need crazies”. 

Nothing Matters For Trump Loyalists

The NYT carried a column on how the Federal Election Commission has little oversight on how the hundreds of millions of dollars ostensibly raised for Trump’s election campaign are actually used. The monies are sat over by Trump’s family, and it is a reasonable inference from the money trails that significant sums are diverted toward fighting his many legal cases. But for Trump bhakts, nothing matters. 

Allan Lichtman is a historian who has correctly called all recent elections, including 2016 and 2020, on a proprietary 13-point scale, weighted towards serious issues (like how the economy has done in the period between the two elections and how the US is perceived internationally), in which the character of the candidate matters only for two of the points. On that template, which also totally ignores election polls and surveys, Harris wins by scoring seven points.

‘Prosecutor’ Harris vs ‘Bully’ Trump

It would be fair to say that with less than 60 days to go, the election is too close to call. Much will depend on the debate on Tuesday evening (Wednesday morning in India). This may sound unbelievable, but Trump and Harris have never formally met. Never. Ever. Their first face-to-face promises to be gladiatorial. Will Prosecutor Harris put Convicted Felon and Bully Trump in the dock? 

White men, 40% of the electorate, favour Trump overwhelmingly. Should Harris stand up to Trump, or dominate him, she could give the lie to Trump’s taunt that Putin and the like will chew up Harris. That could nudge the critical white male vote in not only Wisconsin (10 electoral college votes) but, perhaps, more importantly in Pennsylvania with 20 electoral college votes. 

(Ajay Kumar is a senior journalist. He is former Managing Editor, Business Standard, and former Executive Editor, The Economic Times.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author

To harness the power of Bollywood music, an Indian-American entrepreneur and a major fundraiser for the Democratic party has released a music video to mobilise South Asians in key battleground states to vote for presidential candidate and Vice President Kamala Harris in the November 5 election.

The song, “Nacho Nacho”, has been performed by Bollywood singer Shibani Kashyap and produced by Ritesh Parikh and his creative team is the brainchild of Ajay Jain Bhutoria, National Finance Committee member for Ms. Harris for President. This campaign aims to connect with the diverse South Asian-American community across battleground states and key districts.

“With over 4.4 million Indian-Americans and 6 million South Asians eligible to vote, our goal is to help propel Vice President Kamala Harris to victory in 2024. The video transcends language and cultural barriers, resonating with voters in Hindi, Punjabi, Tamil, Telugu, Gujarati, Bengali and more,” said Mr. Bhutoria.

Mr. Parikh, the founder of Awesome TV, said, “Bollywood has always been about breaking barriers and telling stories that unite us. Kamala Harris embodies that same vision — bringing people together and championing a future where diversity is our greatest strength. Her journey is a story we all believe in.”

Mr. Bhutoria said the lyrics and dance moves reflect the festive spirit of the community and send a strong message to vote for Ms. Harris.

“In 2020, we made history by electing the first woman of South Asian and African-American descent as Vice President. Now, in 2024, it’s time to make her our next president,” he said.

He plans to release more Bollywood-inspired music videos to boost the voter turnout for Ms. Harris and her Vice Presidential candidate Tim Walz.

“In the 2020 campaign, we saw Bollywood-inspired videos go viral, and we will repeat that success. The South Asian vote could be decisive in this election and we will work tirelessly to turn out every vote,” Mr. Bhutoria said.

Once again, social media has reminded the editors and managers of traditional media that when it comes to live events or disseminating news worldwide in real time, they cannot compete. While traditional media was squabbling over whether the live interaction on X between tech billionaire Elon Musk and Grand Old Party (GOP) nominee Donald Trump was a conversation, a conversational interview or an interview, the chat between the world’s two most unavoidable men crossed 200 million views, as per Musk’s claim in a post. The morning after, Musk tweeted again, saying the conversation had garnered one billion combined views – a jaw-dropping number for legacy media.

I was keeping a close eye on the event’s coverage by traditional media. It was disappointing to see that much of it was mostly negative; the slew of headlines both in the UK and the US painted the two-hour interaction in a dark light. One headline screamed: “Trump’s interview with Musk devolves into yet another X catastrophe”. Legacy print media published a number of articles on the event. USA Today said it was an “unmitigated disaster”, The New York Times called it a “two-hour ramble”, and the Washington Post called it “softballs”. Other traditional media outlets were no different: CNN compared the event to watching “Grumpy Old Men”, and MSNBC called it a “failed” interview. Some focused more on the delay caused by a technical glitch. A Guardian analysis was headlined: “Elon Musk’s X suffers tech failure at start of Donald Trump interview”, while BBC said, “Musk’s X talk with Trump hit by tech glitches”. 

UK Riots And Social Media 

In the hours after three young girls were brutally stabbed to death in the UK’s Southport town on July 29, news and reactions began to flow on social platforms, such as TikTok, Instagram, Facebook and YouTube. There were real-time updates on the horrific incident on these platforms. On the other hand, many felt that the mainstream media offered a lukewarm coverage of the incident until all hell broke loose and widespread violent protests swept across towns and cities in England. The news of the three girls being killed was initially treated by the legacy media as a routine crime story after it emerged that there was no terror link. It was only after fake videos and unverified news began circulating widely and getting millions of views that established media woke up from its slumber.   

The vacuum was filled by some notorious far-right people on social media who were accused of posting inflammatory material. 

The British government named Elon Musk as one of those who were “stirring the pot”. Reacting to the riots, Musk suggested in a post that “civil war is inevitable” in the UK. Responding to Prime Minister Keith Starmer’s comments on the attacks on the Muslim community he asked, “Shouldn’t you be concerned about attacks on all communities?”. He also accused the police of being biased against protesters 

Billionaire Knows What He’s Doing

Elon Musk appears to have learnt something from the fall of traditional media, which has been accused of lacking in innovation and stagnating; it desperately depends on social media platforms to amplify its content.

Musk has 194.4 million followers on X. He is the most followed man on the platform. The CEO of X, Linda Yaccarini, says the platform has 500 million active users a month. Surely, Musk is aware of this reach, and he is using it strategically to his advantage with a view to weaken the legacy media. One can see his strategy at play by the way he was able to pull off a two-hour interview with Trump and in the run-up to it how he drummed it up.

That was not an isolated incident. Musk came to Donald Trump’s defence in March too when the latter said at a rally in Ohio that there would be a “blood bath” in the US if he lost the November election. He fired a series of posts on X in response to the coverage and urged the people to use his platform to share news instead of reading or watching it on traditional outlets. He accused the legacy media of lying about Trump’s comment, saying his comment was taken out of context.

Open Challenge 

Elon Musk, described variously as a genius and innovator, besides being one of the richest men in the world, appears to have openly challenged the traditional media’s established 200-year hegemony over news and current affairs. In one of his posts, he said, “Citizen journalism from actual domain experts and people actually on the ground is much faster, more accurate and has less bias than the legacy media”. The claim of being “more accurate” and “less biased” can be contested, but not social media being “much faster” than the legacy media.

Social platforms, such as  TikTok, YouTube, Instagram and Facebook, are officially still tech companies, but they have daily news capsules, real-time coverage of events and timeline postings, which cannot be matched by mainstream media. These have emerged as a big challenge to the established, legacy media.

Needless to say, many political parties and popular leaders of the world have robust social media strategies. They too have grasped the importance of speed and reach and often bypass the legacy media to reach out to their followers and voters of their countries, because they believe they interact more closely with their supporters through these platforms.

Will Legislation Help?

Europe has already passed a law to hold social media accountable. Now it’s the British government’s turn. Its Online Safety Bill aims to regulate social media platforms and protect users from harmful content. The Bill asks companies to remove fake and illegal content and establishes Ofcom (media regulators) as the regulator with the power to fine companies up to £18 million or 10% of annual global turnover for non-compliance. The legislation is expected to come into force by 2025. Some anti-far-right organisations have urged the government to implement it as early as possible.  

But will that in some way curb the growing popularity of social media? Will it slow them down in terms of the speed with which they churn out news? Will the erosion of trust and threat to democracy argument hold good? 

What Should The Legacy Media Do?

I can say with the authority of my 30 years of experience in mainstream Western media that they are still slow to innovate, as they were slow to embrace digital transformation and shy of collaborating with social media. 

“Digital transformation” is the buzzword in the BBC today. They are being bold in their leap to digitisation at the cost of traditional media, such as TV and radio. Also, it may sound bizarre, but BBC News is quite new to TikTok. It dawned on them only last year that they had lost out on the young audiences of TikTok who, they learnt, consumed news in bulk.

But it’s a strategy full of risks. A balance between legacy and social media, along with innovation and speed, could be the key to surviving and staying stable.  

(Syed Zubair Ahmed is a London-based senior Indian journalist with three decades of experience with the Western media)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author

“Why harp on the facts, it’s the exaggerations that makes a tale interesting!” A favourite aunt once exclaimed when I tried to fact-check a funny family story she was narrating to a huge, giggling audience two decades ago. Each member of my clan cheered her on and it was the start of a delightful evening.

Donald Trump’s interview with Elon Musk sent me back in time as I waded through the conversation. Both Trump and Musk know the importance of exaggerations in any narrative. The Indic epic poets knew it. Herodotus knew it. And so did Boccaccio, Chaucer, and Shakespeare. Trump’s exaggerations, ably supported by his interviewer, made for a good story for his supporters. All 60 million of them he thought were tuned into the live broadcast. This number is an exaggeration, too.

A Risk Worth Taking

But why does Trump exaggerate all the time despite a bevvy of fact-checkers waiting to give each syllable uttered by him a hang-draw-quarter treatment? Political storytelling is assessed under different rubrics than literary texts. Is this a risk worth taking? The answer is a resounding yes. 

Trump capitalises on narcissism when he indulges in making outlandish claims. To understand this link better, let’s look at what the experts have to say about narcissism. “For the narcissistically involved person, there is only one reality: that of his own thought processes, feelings and needs. The world outside is not experienced or perceived objectively, i.e., as existing in its own terms, conditions and needs,” Erich Fromm proposed in the 1950s.  Fromm also posited that narcissists have a stronger sense of entitlement. This lays bare the reasons behind Trump’s constant resort to exaggerations.

Narcissism And Politics

All politicians are narcissistic in some measure; this trait allows them to, first, enter politics, and then stay in it. Narcissism, however, has a highly specialised function for certain political ideologies. The interlinkages of narcissism with the sense of entitlement are important to understand while analysing why Trump’s narcissism works for him politically. A study conducted by political scientists Peter K. Hatemi and Zoltân Fazekas found that “In the 2016 election, higher entitlement reflected the mood of the general public, certainly among the working class, which voted Republican in greater numbers”. Hatemi and Fazekas propose that narcissism may have a role to play in the rise of populist politics. Trump’s constituents and those curious about him are offered a blanket of familiarity.

In simple terms, Trump’s worldview, presented with an exaggerated sense of self-importance and confidence, wins people over. People who are ever so anxious about their entitlements being eroded. And this is why statements like the following work: “Our crime rate’s going through the roof.” Who cares whether the FBI’s reports show a consistent decline in crime levels since 2020, his last presidential year? Add to it a provocative claim about Kamala Harris, “She wants to release all the prisoners that are in detention, and some of these guys are really bad. That just came out today” and you have successfully created a sense of impending doom.

Trump, The Rescuer

Trump is relying on honest Americans to believe that their entitlements are being eaten away by outsiders. Thus, he makes exaggerated claims like, “You have millions of people coming in a month” and “I believe it’s over 20 million people came into our country” about illegal immigrants. He wants people to believe that they are living under extraordinary circumstances by saying, “I think we have the worst inflation we’ve had in 100 years. They say it’s 48 years, I don’t believe it”. Shrinking entitlements being further nibbled on by outsiders-which one of us, narcissist or not, would find that desirable?

People need to despair for the narcissist to, then, brandishing his exaggerated belief in self, come in for the rescue. Trump wants people to believe that he, and only he, can solve these crises. Just the way only he could “solve” the Iran and China crises for the United States. “Iran was broke because I told China, ‘If you buy from Iran…’ Oil, it’s all about the oil, that’s where the money is. ‘…If you buy oil from Iran, you’re not going to do any business with the United States.’ And I meant it, and they said, ‘We’ll pass,’ and they didn’t buy oil.” America can be made great again only when it is unequivocally established that it is in ruins. And it can be made great again only by Trump.

Trump’s conversation with Musk, therefore, needs to be seen not as a “rambling” one which has significantly undermined his presidential prospects but as a tested strategy aimed at his constituents and swing voters. Whether it will fetch him a repeat of the 2016 outcome remains to be seen. 
Till then, let’s get lost in the meandering world of storytelling. 

(Nishtha Gautam is a Delhi-based author and academic.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author

The US election campaign takes a deadly turn- with Trump and his new Vice President choice surging in the polls after the assassination attempt, and pressure building on President Biden to step aside for another candidate- what are the major issues for voters, and what will decision 2024 in the US mean for India?

This week we are looking at the turmoil in America- with less than 4 months to election day, it seems nothing is certain, not even who the final candidate lineup may be

First- to the shocking assassination attempt on former US President Donald Trump as he was giving a speech in Pennsylvania. Pumping his fist as he was taken away from the stage, Trump was recast as an American hero, seeing a further bump in his ratings. Trump is the third US President to have been injured in an assassination attempt, four Presidents have been killed in the past

Second- Trump announced his Vice-Presidential candidate- JD Vance, author of Hillbilly Elegies, married to Usha Chilukuri , daughter of Indian immigrants. Vance was a never-trumper, now a US Senator, who endorsed Trump whole heartedly at the Republican National Convention this week

Finally, Trump was formally nominated at the RNC- he accepted, with a message of unity, which included a few swipes at the Biden administration

Across the political battlefield- the Democrats and President Joseph Biden have had compounding problems with the campaign

First, a disastrous Biden-Trump debate which sparked concerns about Biden’s frail health and grip on issues, which Biden sought to dispel

Followed by criticism over the Trump assassination bid and faulty security, even being blamed for instigating the assassin, who was actually a registered republican

And then, President Biden was hit by Covid, and had to quarantine right when he should have been out campaigning.

So if Trump is up, and Biden down, is he also out? Thats the big question- 

The triple whammy has convinced many senior democrats to push Biden to step down from the candidature which could happen quickly- who could take over? It could either be VP Pick Kamala Harris, or an open convention to select the new team anytime up to the DNC August 19-22.

Here are the latest polls then- as you can see when you scroll, it’s at present all red- with Trump up between 2 and 6 points.

What according to voters polled are the big issues?

1. Inflation and unemployment

2. Immigration

3. Access to abortion/ reproductive rights

4. Gun violence/Gun rights

5. Climate change/energy

6. Israel/Gaza*

7. Russia/Ukraine

8. Trade and Tariffs- China

9. Taxes

10. Crime figures

Impact on India – of those 10 issues, 5 have foreign policy implications, that could actually impact India

1. Trump’s promise of a crackdown on immigrant numbers and illegal aliens, closing the borders is likely to be of concern, as also the violence that anti-immigrant speech spurs.

2. Biden pushed for green energy, funding India’s renewable transition, whereas Trump, who walked out of the Paris accords last time around will push for more oil- in his words, drill, baby, drill

3. On Israel/Gaza, Trump will probably pay less heed to civilian casualties of Palestinians, but may push Israel more for a deal for a ceasefire, including with Saudi Arabia, as he did in the past, and get tougher on Iran- India watching closely what either can do to bring peace and actualize the IMEEC corridor

4. Biden has committed to funding Ukraine for as long as it takes, and taken a stern view of India-Russia ties and PM Modi’s Moscow visit, so a Trump win will be a relief for New Delhi, especially given the criticism from US Ambassador to India Eric Garcetti last week, about India and strategic autonomy

5. And on China, Trump policy is likely to be tougher on China when it comes to trade and tariffs, but perhaps not as hard on Taiwan and Chinese aggression in the South China Sea- judging by comments his Vice President nominee made recently. Trump revived the Quad, but Biden raised its profile, and given it is India’s turn to host the Quad summit next, New Delhi will be keen to see the new president visit here soon.

No mention of India in Trump’s RNC speech, but on 3 other issues, India will watch closely

6. Human Rights- Trump won’t push India on Human Rights issues the way the Biden administration has – religious freedom etc., although Trump is likely to be more intrusive on the issue of India’s cutting FCRA licenses to Christian charities that form his base.

7. Pannun case- While the trial in the Pannun case will go on regardless of who is in power, it is possible a Trump administration will be easier on the public messaging over transnational repression

8. Transfer of technology- Biden has committed to transferring technology to India without strings attached, whereas Trump might want to extract more assurances impose costs to the deal- as he has done in the past, even threatening sanctions over India’s oil imports from Iran, which the Modi government acceded to

WV Take:

The next few months will see more turmoil in the US elections- at a time the India-US relationship is seeing a slump of sorts, that isn’t good news, but no matter who wins the elections, there is ample opportunity to pick up ties, given that New Delhi has dealt well with both the Trump Administration as well as the Biden ones. All eyes now will be on whether there will be a new contender to deal with from the Democrats, and what their track record on foreign policy and India ties says.

WV Reading Recommendations:

On Trump and Biden:

The Last Politician: Inside Joe Biden’s White House and the Struggle for America’s Future by Franklin Foer

The Fight of His Life: Inside Joe Biden’s White House by Chris Whipple

PERIL by Bob Woodward, also Fear and Rage

All in the Family: The Trumps and How We Got This Way Hardcover – Import, 30 July 2024 by Fred C. Trump III

The Strategy of Denial: American Defense in an Age of Great Power Conflict by Elbridge A. Colby

The Internationalists: The Fight to Restore American Foreign Policy After Trump by Alexander Ward

On India-US ties:

Open Embrace: India-US Ties: India-US Ties in a Divided World by Varghese K. George

Friends with Benefits: The India-US Story by Seema Sirohi

A Matter Of Trust: India-US Relations from Truman to Trump by Meenakshi Ahamed

Script and Presentation: Suhasini Haidar

Production: Gayatri Menon and Shibu Narayan

Milwaukee, US:

US President Joe Biden is expected to make a major announcement on his re-election bid, with several senior Democratic leaders suggesting that he leave the race following his disastrous debate performance, a failed assassination attempt on his rival Donald Trump, his poor health, and falling poll numbers, according to media reports.

“Several people close to President Biden said on Thursday that they believe he has begun to accept the idea that he may not be able to win in November and may have to drop out of the race, bowing to the growing demands of many anxious members of his party,” The New York Times reported.

Biden, 81, is spending time at his Delaware residence in isolation after he was tested positive for COVID-19. Media reports said that top leaders of the Democratic party, including former president Barack Obama, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, have asked him to leave the presidential race, in the absence of which the party risks losing the White House, the Senate and the House of Representatives.

“People close to top Democrats said Thursday that it now appeared it was a matter of when—not if—Biden bows out of the presidential race. In the past day or so, former President Barack Obama has told friends who have called him that Biden’s path to victory is narrow, according to people familiar with the calls,” The NYT report said.

The Washington Post reported Thursday night that Pelosi has stepped up her behind-the-scenes role in working to persuade the president to bow out of campaign. Obama has said that he has a very slight chance of winning the race.

According to The Hill, Vice President Kamala Harris has started looking for options for her running mate. The three being talked about right now are Senator Mark Kelly, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear and North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper.

Most of the media reports said that Biden’s announcement on his re-election bid might come after the conclusion of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee.

“One of the people close to him warned that the president had not yet made up his mind to leave the race after three weeks of insisting that almost nothing would drive him out. But another said that ‘reality is setting in’, and that it would not be a surprise if Mr Biden made an announcement soon endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris as his replacement,” The NYT reported. PTI LKJ SCY SCY

Even before the assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump, American politics was churning. But after the dramatic developments of last week, it’s spinning in a way few could have foreseen. Even as President Joe Biden is getting weaker by the day, Trump seems to be gaining an unstoppable momentum. As per internal polling of the Democrats, Biden is losing ground to Trump in 14 key states, including the five that Biden won in 2020 –  Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. His numbers are shaky in Colorado, Minnesota, Maine, New Mexico, Virginia and New Hampshire after his disastrous debate performance.

The Democratic Party remains badly divided with growing fears among its rank and file that, in light of the debate, Biden is in no position to defeat Trump and that he will leave other Democrats on the ballot in November vulnerable too. Voices are growing within the Party asking Biden to step aside, with senior party officials like Rep. Adam Schiff of California making an open case that “a second Trump presidency will undermine the very foundation of our democracy, and I have serious concerns about whether the President can defeat Donald Trump in November”. Biden is fighting back but is struggling in convincing his own party about his suitability for the top job.

The GOP Convention

His opponent, meanwhile, is basking in the glory of a convention where his past critics are now coming together to anoint him as the party’s nominee more formally. All those like Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis and Marco Rubio, who till a few months back were targeting Trump at the Republican primaries, have now ended up endorsing him unequivocally. Trump with a bandage over his ears and his supporters shouting “Fight, fight, fight!” at the Republican National Convention is a powerful imagery for a nation that a few days back was debating the suitability of a candidate who incited the January 6 insurrection at Capitol Hill.  

The confusion in the Republican party was apparent when after J.D. Vance, a former Never Trumper who had, in 2016, wondered whether Trump might be “America’s Hitler”, was confirmed as the Republican Party’s vice presidential nominee. He faced racist attacks from far-right commentators because of his wife’s Indian heritage. The upholders of the ‘Make America Great Again’ movement are finding it difficult to reconcile Vance’s multicultural family with their core agenda of anti-immigration.

Fundamental Challenges

Political polarisation in the US has led to some fundamental challenges being faced by both the Republicans and the Democrats. The demonisation of the other side has led to a situation where even after an assassination attempt, vitriol continues to flow and there is no attempt at reconciliation.

Though the theme of the Republican convention this week is about unity, there is no place in today’s Republican rank and file for those who have a different vision for the US than Trump’s. Any challenge to Trump is about challenging the party as the former president has ensured that the Republican Party today is more reflective of his views than a broad tent organisation.

After the assassination attempt on Trump, Vance wrote: “Today is not just some isolated incident. The central premise of the Biden campaign is that President Donald Trump is an authoritarian fascist who must be stopped at all costs. That rhetoric led directly to President Trump’s attempted assassination.” Trump’s own role in vitiating the political climate in the US has been conveniently forgotten by his supporters.

Though President Biden called on the Americans last week to rein in the political debate, arguing that “[It] must never be a battlefield and, God forbid, a killing field”, and warning that “no matter how strong our convictions, we must never descend into violence”, it’s not readily evident if anyone is listening. Trump’s ability to tap into the sense of grievance and persecution felt by middle America has thwarted any attempt by the Biden administration and the Democrats more generally to craft a political narrative that can shift the momentum in their favour. And now after the attack on Trump, it has become even more difficult as the image of a defiant former President with blood streaked across his face stands in stark contrast to a fumbling feeble Biden unable to articulate a coherent thought.

November is still far away. Even a day is a long time in politics. The Democratic Party can still regroup and present a serious challenge to Trump. But there is no denying the fact that the last two weeks have upended the US Presidential elections in fundamental ways and will leave a strong mark on American politics whichever way the political winds blow in the coming days.

(Harsh V Pant is Vice-President for Studies and Foreign Policy at ORF.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author

The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) has identified Thomas Matthew Crooks as the shooter behind the attempted assassination of former US President Donald Trump, it said in a statement today.

Crooks, 20, was killed by security officials when he opened fire at the 78-year-old Republican presidential candidate, injuring his ear, during a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. 

“The FBI has identified Thomas Matthew Crooks, 20, of Bethel Park, Pennsylvania, as the subject involved in the assassination attempt of former President Donald Trump on July 13, in Butler, Pennsylvania,” the FBI said in a statement quoted by NBC and CBS.

Law enforcement officials earlier told reporters they had tentatively identified the suspected shooter but were not ready to do so publicly. They also said they had not yet identified the motive. The FBI, which is the lead federal law enforcement agency in the investigation, had said the shooting was being treated as “an assassination attempt” against the former president.

Trump was hit in the ear in the shocking shooting, which left a bystander dead and two others critically injured. He was quickly rushed off stage by the US Secret Service agents, with blood seen on his face.

The gunshots were heard when Trump had just started speaking at his final rally before the Republican National Convention.

Thousands of his supporters were in attendance when the shooting, which was captured live on news channels, happened.

Donald Trump Says Bullet Pierced Part Of Right Ear

Donald Trump, in his first account of being attacked during a rally, said, “I was shot with a bullet that pierced the upper part of my right ear.”

“I knew immediately that something was wrong in that I heard a whizzing sound, shots, and immediately felt the bullet ripping through the skin,” Trump said on his Truth Social site.

“Much bleeding took place, so I realized then what was happening,” he added.

He also thanked the Secret Service and law enforcement for their “rapid response”.

“It is incredible that such an act can take place in our country,” he said.

The shocking incident occurred less than four months before the November 5 US presidential election, when Trump is set to face an election rematch with Democratic President Joe Biden.

Former US President Donald Trump was rushed off stage after a series of gunshots were fired at his campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania today. As gunshots were heard, he grimaced and clutched a hand to his right ear, where blood was clearly visible across his cheek and mouth.

The suspected shooter was confirmed dead, while a spectator was killed, and two others “critically injured”.

Video: Moment Trump Was Attacked At Rally

In his first reaction to a shooting at his rally, the 78-year-old Republican presidential candidate said in a statement he “was shot with a bullet that pierced the upper part of my right ear”. His campaign said he was “fine” and being checked at a medical facility.

Secret Service agents, who quickly surrounded the Republican candidate and escorted him roughly off the stage, 

Here are live updates on the shooting at Donald Trump’s rally:

Trump Supporters Seen Laying In Stands After Gunshots Fired At Republican

Trump supporters were seen laying in the stands after guns were fired at the Republican at a campaign event at Butler Farm Show in Butler, Pennsylvania.

Photo: AFP

“Bullet Pierced Upper Part Of My Right Ear”: Trump On Shooting

In his first reaction to shooting at his rally, Donald Trump said he”was shot with a bullet that pierced the upper part of his right ear”.

“I want to thank The United States Secret Service, and all of Law Enforcement, for their rapid response on the shooting that just took place in Butler, Pennsylvania. Most importantly, I want to extend my condolences to the family of the person at the Rally who was killed, and also to the family of another person that was badly injured,” he said in a statement.

“It is incredible that such an act can take place in our Country. Nothing is known at this time about the shooter, who is now dead. I was shot with a bullet that pierced the upper part of my right ear. I knew immediately that something was wrong in that I heard a whizzing sound, shots, and immediately felt the bullet ripping through the skin. Much bleeding took place, so I realized then what was happening. GOD BLESS AMERICA!,” he added.

“I Fully Endorse President Trump”: Elon Musk After Shooting At Rally

Tech billionaire Elon Musk has said that he “fully” endorses Trump after the rally violence.

“I fully endorse President Trump and hope for his rapid recovery,” Musk wrote on X, as he shared a video of Trump pumping his fist while being escorted away by Secret Service agents.

I fully endorse President Trump and hope for his rapid recovery pic.twitter.com/ZdxkF63EqF

– Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 13, 2024

Donald Trump Seen Being Evacuated By Secret Service Agents

A picture shows Secret Service agents surrounding Donald Trump onstage after shooting at his rally in Butler, Pennsylvania.

Photo: AFP

George W Bush On Trump Rally Shooting

Former US president George W Bush also condemned the “cowardly” attack.

“Laura and I are grateful that President Trump is safe following the cowardly attack on his life. And we commend the men and women of the Secret Service for their speedy response,” he said in a statement. 

Trump Rally Shooting: Video Shows Moment He Was Attacked

In a video that captures the shooting at Donald Trump’s Pennsylvania rally, the former US President can be seen delivering his speech amongst a big crowd of his supporters when several gunshots are heard. 

After the first couple of gunshots that took the 78-year-old president unawares, he can be seen touching his right ear before ducking to take cover behind the stage dias.

TRUMP WAS JUST SHOT ON LIVE TV

Please stop what you’re doing and pray pic.twitter.com/jlYtCeRe3O

– End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) July 13, 2024 

The crowd behind him, visibly confused and scared, also ducks to dodge any bullet. 

Trump, whose right ear can be seen bleeding, raises his fist in the air while being evacuated.

Trump Rally Shooting: “Absolutely No Place For Political Violence”, Says Obama

Former US President Barack Obama also reacted to the apparent shooting at his successor Donald Trump’s rally and said there was “absolutely no place for political violence in our democracy.”

“Although we don’t yet know exactly what happened, we should all be relieved that former President Trump wasn’t seriously hurt, and use this moment to recommit ourselves to civility and respect in our politics,” he posted on X.

There is absolutely no place for political violence in our democracy. Although we don’t yet know exactly what happened, we should all be relieved that former President Trump wasn’t seriously hurt, and use this moment to recommit ourselves to civility and respect in our politics….

– Barack Obama (@BarackObama) July 13, 2024

Donald Trump Rally Shooting: “Grateful To Hear He’s Safe”, Says Biden

US President Joe Biden said he was “grateful to hear” that his election rival Donald Trump was safe in a shooting incident at a rally in Pennsylvania. 

“I’m grateful to hear that he’s safe and doing well. I’m praying for him and his family and for all those who were at the rally, as we await further information,” Biden said in a statement shortly after the incident.

“Jill and I are grateful to the Secret Service for getting him to safety. There’s no place for this kind of violence in America. We must unite as one nation to condemn it.”

I have been briefed on the shooting at Donald Trump’s rally in Pennsylvania.

I’m grateful to hear that he’s safe and doing well. I’m praying for him and his family and for all those who were at the rally, as we await further information.

Jill and I are grateful to the Secret…

– President Biden (@POTUS) July 13, 2024

Trump Rally Shooting: Suspected Shooter Dead

The suspected shooter has been confirmed dead, along with one bystander, US media reported.

A second bystander may also have been hit.

The shooting took place shortly after Donald Trump took the stage at his final campaign rally before the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee next week.

Donald Trump “Fine” After Shooting At Rally In Butler, Pennsylvania

Donald Trump’s campaign said he was “fine” and being checked at a medical facility.

“President Trump thanks law enforcement and first responders for their quick action during this heinous act. He is fine and is being checked out at a local medical facility. More details will follow,” said spokesperson Steven Cheung in a statement.

“The former president is safe,” the Secret Service said in a post on X.

Live Updates: Donald Trump Rushed Off Stage After Shooting At Rally

Former US President Donald Trump was rushed off stage after a series of gunshots were fired at his campaign rally in Pennsylvania today.

As gunshots were heard, he clutched a hand to his right ear, where blood was clearly visible across his cheek and mouth.