The Armenian flag hangs from a lamp post as Azeri police patrol a road leading into the city of Stepanakert, retaken last week, during an Azeri government organized media trip, in Azerbaijan’s controlled region of Nagorno-Karabakh, on October 2, 2023.
| Photo Credit: AFP

The story so far: On September 20, Azerbaijan claimed full control over the contentious Nagorno-Karabakh region after local forces, mostly Armenians, agreed to be disarmed and disbanded. Hundreds of local Armenians fled the area overnight, fearing ethnic cleansing by Azerbaijan.

The disputed region, called Artsakh in Armenian, has been a major ethnic conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia. While it is home to a majority population of ethnic Armenians and an Azeri minority, it is internationally recognised as a part of Azerbaijan.

What is the history of the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh?

Nagorno-Karabakh is located within the international borders of Azerbaijan. It is in the South Caucasus region between eastern Europe and western Asia, spanning the southern part of the Caucasus mountains that roughly includes modern-day Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia.

The conflict between Azeris and Armenians goes back to almost a century, when the Ottomans attacked the South Caucasus during World War I with the help of the Azeris. They targeted ethnic Armenians during this attack, and the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia descended into a full-blown war in 1920. This war especially affected the Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh, as the region had been incorporated into the Azerbaijan Democratic Republic.

Azerbaijan and Armenia became part of the Soviet Republic soon after, and Nagorno-Karabakh was made an autonomous Oblast (administrative region) in Azerbaijan’s territory, while its population was majorly Armenian. In the final days of the Soviet Union, Nagorno-Karabakh’s majority Armenian-Christian population held a referendum to break away from the Shia-majority Azerbaijan.

As the Soviet Union disintegrated in 1991, Armenia and Azerbaijan became independent countries, and Armenian rebels declared Nagorno-Karabakh an independent territory (although not recognised internationally). By 1993, most of Nagorno-Karabakh was under Armenian control. The war between the two parties lasted till 1994 and killed around 30,000 people.

In 1994, Azerbaijan and Armenia entered a ceasefire brokered by Russia, but international borders for the countries were not demarcated. The Minsk Group, co-chaired by Russia, the U.S., and France, was created by the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in early 1990 to arrive at a peaceful resolution for Nagorno-Karabakh. None of the three suggested peace proposals could last.

The Madrid Principles of 2007, modified in 2009, proposed giving control of seven Karabakh districts to Azerbaijan, self-governance to the region, a corridor link with Armenia, an opportunity to the region’s inhabitants to express their will, return of refugees, and setting up of a peacekeeping operation. They weren’t accepted, even after another modification in 2011.

A four-day war between Azerbaijan and Armenia broke out in 2016. The Minsk Group met again in 2017 in Geneva but failed to arrive at a resolution.

In 2020, Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev launched an offensive to take Nagorno-Karabakh back, leading the country into a fierce war with Armenia that lasted six weeks and killed more than 2,000 people. The Azeri forces attacked Armenian defences and took back 40% of Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan was backed by Turkey, and while Armenia’s ally Russia did little to support it, , it helped broker a ceasefire. Stepanakert, the region’s biggest city, remained within local control.

Despite the ceasefire, Azerbaijan did not give up attempts to capture Nagorno-Karabakh. In December 2022, it blockaded Lachin Corridor, the main road connecting Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia and the rest of the world, adding to the economic misery of the 1,20,000 people of the region. The road was blocked under the pretext of environmental concerns. “Prior to that blockade, around 90% of all consumed food was imported from Armenia. The people of Nagorno-Karabakh no longer receive 400 tonnes of essential goods daily,” Armenia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Ararat Mirzoyan said in a U.N. press release published on August 16, 2023.

Azerbaijan faced international criticism and promised to lift the blockade but added a checkpoint to contain the flow of goods. Russian peacekeepers deployed in the area were responsible for ensuring supplies to the region since 2020, but experts believe that the country’s war in Ukraine diverted its attention and resources from the area.

Latest developments

A fresh round of violence broke out in the area in September 2023 when Azerbaijan launched an attack against ethnic Armenian forces in Nagorno-Karabakh. The fighting lasted one day, and a ceasefire was announced a day later.

In a statement, U.S. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said that Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and expressed “deep concern for the ethnic Armenian population” in the disputed region.

Why was Azerbaijan able to accomplish the accession now?

Experts believe Turkey has a big role to play in the latest developments in Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijanis/Azeris are a Turkic ethnic group of mixed heritage and speak a language belonging to a branch of the Turkic family. Reuters reported that Turkey, however, denied any direct involvement in Azerbaijan’s offensive, although it is a political and military supporter of Azerbaijan.

“Turkey’s cooperation with Azerbaijan in military training and army modernisation has been underway for a long time. The Azerbaijani army’s success in the latest operation clearly shows the level they achieved,” a Turkish defence ministry official was quoted as saying.

Russia’s absence in the Caucasus is owing to its war in Ukraine. As retaliation to Russia’s lack of help over the last few years, Armenia on Tuesday voted to join the International Criminal Court (ICC) despite Russia’s warnings. Russian President Vladimir Putin can be arrested for war crimes if he enters countries that have signed and ratified the Rome Statute that created the ICC. Armenian officials, however, argued that the move has nothing to do with Russia.

Over 100,000 ethnic Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh, which is almost the entire population of the disputed region, have fled to neighbouring Armenia in the last ten days, World Health Organisation (WHO) estimates. The exodus has triggered a massive humanitarian crisis.

(With inputs from agencies)