Leftwing leader Jeremy Corbyn, who has represented Islington North in the U.K. Parliament since 1983, won the constituency for a historic 11th time in the July 4 election. Mr. Corbyn, who led the Labour Party from 2015 to 2020, is one of the six Independent MPs currently sitting in the U.K. Parliament, out of a total of 650 members.

Over the years, Mr. Corbyn has emerged as a tall figure of the British Left. Even though he was unceremoniously suspended from Labour in 2020, Mr. Corbyn has spent most of his life as a Labour leader, as a socialist on the political left. His tenure as the party leader was marred by complaints of antisemitism from within the ranks.

In July 2018, three Jewish newspapers in the U.K. printed the same headline — “United We Stand” — to draw attention to alleged antisemitism under Mr. Corbyn’s leadership. The Labour Party responded by saying there was no threat to the Jewish people, after concerns were raised regarding the party’s “failure” to completely adopt the definition of ‘antisemitism’ as given by the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance.

A 2013 video of Mr. Corbyn speaking at a meeting convened by the Palestinian Return Centre also later became a focal point of criticism from Zionists. In his speech, he called Zionists out for two problems: “One is that they don’t want to study history and, secondly, having lived in this country for a very long time, probably all their lives, they don’t understand English irony either.” Mr. Corbyn had dismissed allegations of antisemitism as “political”. He said he supported “a zero-tolerance policy towards all forms of racism”.

Mr. Corbyn has never shied away from supporting the Palestinian cause, which forms a cornerstone of his politics even today. He has showed up at multiple protests demanding a ceasefire in Gaza following Israel’s invasion of the strip after Hamas’s attacks on October 7, 2023. Mr. Corbyn also questioned former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s refusal to support calls for a ceasefire in Gaza.

Mr. Corbyn’s position as a backbench MP over the years has also allowed him to freely express his views, even if those are against the party’s official policies. He has often been called the “most rebellious Labour MP of recent times”. By 2015, he had voted against the party leadership over 500 times since when former Labour Prime Minister Tony Blair came to power in 1997. He voted against the Blair government’s decision to join the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003. As the Labour leader in 2016, he called the war a “catastrophe” after the Chilcot Report found that Mr. Blair knowingly exaggerated the threat posed by Iraq’s Saddam Hussein.

LGBTQ rights

The Independent MP has also been a long-time ally of LGBTQ rights in the U.K. He famously spoke in favour of the community in 1983, although a statement in 2017 where he said people should not be persecuted if they “chose” to be gay or lesbian drew criticism from some sections of society. The U.K. allowed same-sex marriage in 2013.

Mr. Corbyn’s connect with the voters of his Islington North constituency is no surprise — he has been their candidate of choice to Parliament for over 40 years now. Islington is a diverse area in North London. According to the 2021 Census, 7.1% of Islington residents identified their ethnic group within the “other” category (”Arab” or “any other ethnic group”).

“Corbyn always showed up to the protests and gatherings [in Islington North] which the local community appreciated immensely,” Annapurna Menon, a Sheffield University teaching associate who lived in Islington North while pursuing her PhD, told The Hindu. Ms. Menon reminisced about talking to Mr. Corbyn during a Black Lives Matter protest in the constituency, and how he stood as “a symbol against oppression and for resistance” for the local Islington community. In his last monthly update before the elections, Mr. Corbyn said the issues related to housing, refugees, and environment will continue to be of prime importance to him. He also added that he was “determined to ensure Gaza stays at the forefront of our politicians’ minds”.

As was widely expected in the UK elections, the Labour Party has registered one of its biggest victories, inflicting a huge defeat on the Conservative Party.

No one had expected this seismic outcome just a few years ago. But Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer, who is going to be the next British Prime Minister, is being hailed by everyone for changing the fortune of the party. He promised to get Britain out of economic stagnation and claimed he would fix the ailing National Health Services. He even reached out to ethnic communities, including the Indian diaspora.

‘Namaste’, Starmer

In the last days of the election campaign, Keir Starmer visited the Shree Swaminarayan Mandir Kingsbury, a prominent Hindu temple in London, and said “namaste” with folded hands. His charm offensive included him wearing a tilak on his forehead and a floral garland around his neck. Starmer may have looked out of place, but it was an attempt to placate angry Indian diaspora voters, the majority of whom were expected to favour the Conservative Party. The temple visit was also intended to send out a strong signal of friendship with India.

Also Read | Labour Sweeps UK Polls, Rishi Sunak’s Party Ousted For 1st Time In 14 Years

Despite his awkwardness, Starmer knew he had to perform this political act, not only because his visit underscored Labour’s commitment to embracing and celebrating diversity within the UK, but also because he needed to repair relations with the influential Indian diaspora, and, by extension, India. It had been clear for quite some time that his party was returning to power after a hiatus of 14 years and he was going to be the next UK Prime Minister; that is why he needed to undertake an India outreach before assuming office.

The Baggage Of The Past

Starmer’s gesture of visiting the temple was particularly significant given the events of September 2019, when during its annual conference in Brighton, the Labour Party under Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership had passed a motion addressing the situation in Jammu and Kashmir. The motion declared that there was a humanitarian crisis in the region and asserted that the people of Kashmir should be granted the right to self-determination. Additionally, it had called for the deployment of international monitors to the area to ensure the protection of human rights and the assessment of the situation on the ground.

Needless to say, the Labour Party had gone too far. And despite the clarification issued by Jeremy Corbyn, the damage was done.

The motion was met with significant backlash from the Indian diaspora, who felt that it was one-sided and did not consider the complexities of the Kashmir issue. The event marked a turning point as many members of the Indian community began to shift their allegiances to the Conservative Party.

Also Read | “This Is A Massacre”: Conservative Leader As Labour Heads For Massive UK Win

The Indian government also responded sharply to the Labour’s motion. It was reported that the Indian High Commission in London took the unprecedented step of cancelling a scheduled dinner for Labour leaders, signalling its strong disapproval. The Indian government officially rejected the motion, emphasising its concerns about what it viewed as interference in its internal affairs.

In an effort to mend relations, Starmer attempted to address the situation last year, when he asserted that the Labour Party would strive to maintain strong relations with India, indicating a desire to rebuild trust and cooperation. Despite these efforts, the episode highlighted the fragile nature of Labour’s relations with India and underscored the significant political influence of the Indian diaspora in the UK.
Labour’s image makeover under Starmer

A Changed Labour

Indeed, the Labour Party has now made a triumphant comeback, securing a thumping majority. We should keep in mind that the party is a much-changed one under Starmer. It wants to inject more depth and substance into Britain’s strategic partnership with India.

India is most likely to carefully monitor Labour’s policy stance on Kashmir, immigration and the proposed Free Trade Agreement (FTA). The Indian government may have apprehensions about Labour’s views on its internal matters, but on balance, the India-UK bilateral relations will not change much under Starmer. In fact, Labour supporters in the Indian community believe that under him, the relations are likely to improve. It is being claimed that the number of Indian-origin Labour MPs would double from the current six members in the outgoing Parliament. 

Will The Ties Improve?

Academics in the UK at times tend to romanticise the bilateral ties between the two countries, looking at it chiefly from the prism of colonial nostalgia. We are led to believe that it is in India’s interest to have a deeper strategic partnership with Britain. To be honest, however, India sees Britain as a middle power, whose influence on the global stage has been on the wane for long. One can only blame the Conservative Party for it, a beleaguered and divided house which presided over 14 years of stagnation. India under Narendra Modi, who was born after the country’s independence, is, whether rightly or wrongly, not in awe of its erstwhile colonial masters.

Also Read | UK’s Labour Party Commits To Stamping Out “Anti-India Sentiments”

Yes, the bilateral trade in goods and services is growing steadily, and stood at £39 billion last year, with the balance of trade heavily in India’s favour. Yes, we have a vocal, upwardly mobile Indian diaspora, which acts as a bridge between the two countries and it often works to India’s advantage. But the oomph factor in bilateral relations has been missing for a long time. For example, India and the US warmed up to each other and became trusted partners only after the Civil Nuclear Agreement between the two countries was brokered under President George W. Bush. It was a pivotal moment that added significant “oomph” to bilateral ties and transformed the dynamics of the relationship, fostering deeper strategic, economic, and technological cooperation. It set the stage for an enduring partnership in the 21st century. Even during the Obama and Trump administrations the bilateral ties never ran out of excitement. 

One cannot say the same about India-UK relations, which badly need to be injected with energy, excitement and a mega-deal. 

FTA: Starmer’s First Challenge In India-UK Ties

With regards to India, one of the first tasks on Starmer’s desk will be to reach a Free Trade Agreement. He has maintained his commitment to completing the FTA, but it is not going to be easy. India’s priority appears to be to finalise an agreement with the European Union (EU) first. The bilateral trade in goods and services last year stood at €113 billion. The two sides relaunched the negotiations in 2022 and the progress is said to be satisfactory.

According to a group of researchers, another stumbling block in the India-UK FTA is “the opposition in the UK to Indian demands for more visas for intra-company transfers and particularly to demands that social security contributions from Indian workers during such transfers be reimbursed”.

Immigration Policies

Brexit has led to record levels of Indian immigration. Of the 6.85 lakh immigrants in the UK today, the majority come from India. The Labour Party’s stated aim is to reduce legal immigration and curb illegal immigration. Many of the legal Indian immigrants are IT professionals on work permits, contributing to the UK’s technology sector. There is a small number of illegal immigrants from India as well.

The party’s policy seeks to balance the economic benefits of skilled migrants with the goal of controlling overall immigration numbers, reflecting broader political and economic priorities.
Human Rights and Citizenship Laws

Historically, the Labour Party has been vocal about human rights issues in India, particularly on laws like the Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA) and the National Register of Citizens (NRC). The Labour Party’s criticism has been viewed by the Indian government as interference and a misrepresentation of India’s internal policies aimed at addressing specific security concerns. Starmer will be under pressure from domestic human rights organisations to put forward liberal British perspectives. His diplomatic skills are bound to be tested in the coming months and years.

The relations between the UK’s Labour Party and the Indian government are complex, influenced by historical ties, diaspora politics, and divergent policy priorities. Addressing such challenges will require nuanced diplomacy, mutual respect, and an understanding of the sensitivities involved on both sides.

(Syed Zubair Ahmed is a London-based senior Indian journalist with three decades of experience with the Western media)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author

Nigel Farage, leader of the right-wing Reform U.K. party, won a seat in the British parliament for the first time in the seaside English town of Clacton-on-Sea, as voters deserted Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s Conservative Party.

Mr. Farage, whose career of anti-immigration, pro-Brexit campaigning has made him one of Britain’s most recognisable and divisive political figures, comfortably beat the Conservative candidate Giles Watling who had previously held the seat.

His surprise entry into the election a month ago, having initially ruled out standing, boosted support for Reform UK across the country. That helped scupper Mr. Sunak’s hopes of closing the gap on the centre-left Labour Party, which is on course for a huge national victory. – Reuters

Election workers at Titanic Exhibition Centre, in Belfast, Northen Ireland, during the count for the 2024 General Election, Thursday, July 4, 2024. Britain’s Labour Party was headed for a huge majority in Britain’s election on Thursday, an exit poll suggested. (Liam McBurney/PA via AP)
| Photo Credit: AP

Britain’s Labour Party headed for a landslide victory in a parliamentary election on Thursday, an exit poll suggested, as voters punished the governing Conservatives after 14 years of economic and political upheaval.

The poll released moments after voting closed indicated that center-left Labour’s leader Keir Starmer will be the country’s next prime minister. He will face a jaded electorate impatient for change against a gloomy backdrop of economic malaise, mounting distrust in institutions and a fraying social fabric.

Also Read : U.K. General Election 2024: Labour wins first electoral seat to declare, Reform U.K. in second

The historic defeat for the Conservatives leaves the party depleted and in disarray and will likely spark a contest to replace Prime Minister Rishi Sunak as leader.

“Nothing has gone well in the last 14 years,” said London voter James Erskine, who was optimistic for change in the hours before polls closed. “I just see this as the potential for a seismic shift, and that’s what I’m hoping for.”

While the suggested result appears to buck recent rightward electoral shifts in Europe, including in France and Italy, many of those same populist undercurrents flow in Britain. Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has roiled the race with his party’s anti-immigrant “take our country back” sentiment and undercut support for the Conservatives, who already faced dismal prospects.

Labour is on course to win about 410 seats in the 650-seat House of Commons and the Conservatives 131, according to the exit poll. That would be the fewest number of seats for the Tories in their nearly two-century history and would leave the party in disarray.

Former Conservative leader William Hague said the poll indicated “a catastrophic result in historic terms for the Conservative Party.”

Still, Labour politicians, inured to years of disappointment, were cautious, with full results still hours off.

“The exit poll is encouraging, but obviously we don’t have any of the results yet,” deputy leader Angela Rayner told Sky News.

In a sign of the volatile public mood and anger at the system, some smaller parties appeared to have done well, including the centrist Liberal Democrats and Farage’s Reform UK.

The poll is conducted by pollster Ipsos and asks people at scores of polling stations to fill out a replica ballot showing how they have voted. It usually provides a reliable though not exact projection of the final result.

Britain has experienced a run of turbulent years — some of it of the Conservatives’ own making and some of it not — that has left many voters pessimistic about their country’s future. The U.K.’s exit from the European Union followed by the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine battered the economy, while lockdown-breaching parties held by then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his staff caused widespread anger.

Johnson’s successor, Liz Truss, rocked the economy further with a package of drastic tax cuts and lasted just 49 days in office. Rising poverty and cuts to state services have led to gripes about “Broken Britain.”

Hundreds of communities were locked in tight contests in which traditional party loyalties come second to more immediate concerns about the economy, crumbling infrastructure and the National Health Service.

In Henley-on-Thames, about 40 miles (65 kilometers) west of London, voters like Patricia Mulcahy, who is retired, sensed the nation was looking for something different. The community, which normally votes Conservative, may change its stripes this time.

“The younger generation are far more interested in change,’’ Mulcahy said. “So, I think whatever happens in Henley, in the country, there will be a big shift. But whoever gets in, they’ve got a heck of a job ahead of them. It’s not going to be easy.”

In the first hour polls were open, Sunak made the short journey from his home to vote at Kirby Sigston Village Hall in northern England. He arrived with his wife, Akshata Murty, and walked hand-in-hand into the village hall, which is surrounded by rolling fields.

Labour has had a steady and significant lead in opinion polls for months, but its leaders warned in recent days against taking the election result for granted, worried their supporters would stay home.

“Change. Today, you can vote for it,” leader Starmer wrote Thursday on the X social media platform.

A couple of hours after posting that message, Starmer walked with his wife, Victoria, into a polling place in north London to cast his vote. He left through a back door out of sight of a crowd of residents and journalists who had gathered.

Labour has not set pulses racing with its pledges to get the sluggish economy growing, invest in infrastructure and make Britain a “clean energy superpower.”

But nothing has really gone wrong in its campaign, either. The party has won the support of large chunks of the business community and endorsements from traditionally conservative newspapers, including the Rupert Murdoch-owned Sun tabloid, which praised Starmer for “dragging his party back to the center ground of British politics.”

Former Labour candidate Douglas Beattie, author of the book “How Labour Wins (and Why it Loses),” said Starmer’s “quiet stability probably chimes with the mood of the country right now.”

The Conservatives, meanwhile, have been plagued by gaffes. The campaign got off to an inauspicious start when rain drenched Sunak as he made the announcement outside 10 Downing St. Then, Sunak went home early from commemorations in France marking the 80th anniversary of the D-Day invasion.

Several Conservatives close to Sunak are being investigated over suspicions they used inside information to place bets on the date of the election before it was announced.

Sunak has struggled to shake off the taint of political chaos and mismanagement that’s gathered around the Conservatives.

But for many voters, the lack of trust applies not just to the governing party, but to politicians in general.

“I don’t know who’s for me as a working person,” said Michelle Bird, a port worker in Southampton on England’s south coast who was undecided about whether to vote Labour or Conservative. “I don’t know whether it’s the devil you know or the devil you don’t.”

London:

UK Labour leader Keir Starmer is an ex-human rights lawyer and public prosecutor who will have to focus his relentless work ethic and methodical mind to fixing the country.

If exit polls are confirmed, at 61, Starmer will be the oldest person to become British prime minister in almost half a century — and comes just nine years since he was first elected to parliament.

The married father-of-two is unlike most modern politicians: he had a long and distinguished career before becoming an MP and his views are rooted in pragmatism rather than ideology.

“We must return politics to service,” Starmer said repeatedly during the campaign, promising to put “country first, party second” following 14 chaotic years of Conservative rule under five different prime ministers.

That mantra chimes with supporters’ lauding of him as a managerial safe pair of hands who will approach life in Downing Street the same way he did his legal career: seriously and forensically.

Detractors, though, label him an uninspiring opportunist who regularly shifts position on an issue and who has failed to spell out a clear and defining vision for the country.

Football-mad Starmer, a devoted Arsenal fan, has struggled to shed his public image as buttoned-up and boring and only recently started to appear more at ease in the public spotlight.

Supporters admit that he fails to ooze the charisma of more flashy predecessors like Boris Johnson, but say that therein lies his appeal: a reassuring and strait-laced presence following the turbulent, self-serving years of Tory rule.

With his grey quiff and black-rimmed glasses — Starmer, named after Labour’s founding father Keir Hardie — is also the centre-left party’s most working-class leader in decades.

“My dad was a toolmaker, my mum was a nurse,” he tells voters often, countering depictions by opponents that he is the epitome of a smug, liberal, London elite.

Starmer’s purging of left-wingers from his party highlights a ruthless side that has propelled him to Britain’s highest political office, but he is said to be funny in private and loyal to his friends.

He has pledged to maintain his habit of not working after 6:00 pm on a Friday to spend time with his wife Victoria, who works as an occupational therapist in the National Health Service, and their two teenage children, who he does not name in public.

“There’s something extraordinary in him still being quite normal,” Starmer’s biographer Tom Baldwin wrote in the Guardian.

Top Lawyer

Born on September 2, 1962, Keir Rodney Starmer was raised in a cramped, pebble-dashed semi-detached house on the outskirts of London by a seriously ill mother and an emotionally distant father.

He had three siblings, one of whom had learning difficulties. His parents were animal lovers who rescued donkeys.

A talented musician, Starmer had violin lessons at school with Norman Cook, the former Housemartins bassist who became DJ Fatboy Slim.

After legal studies at the universities of Leeds and Oxford, Starmer turned his attention to leftist causes, defending trade unions, anti-McDonald’s activists, and death row inmates abroad.

He is friends with human rights lawyer Amal Clooney from their time together at the same legal practice and once recounted a boozy lunch he had with her and her Hollywood actor husband George.

In 2003, he began moving towards the establishment, shocking colleagues and friends, first with a job ensuring police in Northern Ireland complied with human rights legislation.

Five years later, he was appointed director of public prosecutions (DPP) for England and Wales when Labour’s Gordon Brown was prime minister.

Between 2008 and 2013, he oversaw the prosecution of MPs for abusing their expenses, journalists for phone-hacking, and young rioters involved in unrest across England.

He was knighted by Queen Elizabeth II, but rarely uses the prefix “Sir”, and in 2015 was elected as a member of parliament, representing a seat in left-leaning north London.

Just weeks before he was elected, his mother died of a rare disease of the joints that had left her unable to walk for many years.

Rebellion

Just a year after becoming an MP, Starmer joined a rebellion by Labour lawmakers over radical left-winger Jeremy Corbyn’s perceived lack of leadership during the EU referendum campaign.

It failed, and later that year he rejoined the top team as Labour’s Brexit spokesman, where he remained until succeeding Corbyn after he took the party to its worst defeat since 1935 in the last election five years ago.

Starmer moved the party back to the more electable centre ground, purging Corbyn and rooting out anti-Semitism.

Dominic Grieve, who as Conservative attorney-general worked closely with Starmer as DPP, said he “inspires loyalty because he comes across as being so transparently decent and rational”.

“These are quite important features even if you disagree with a policy. And he comes across as man of moderation,” he told The Times.

Nevertheless, the left accuses him of betrayal for dropping a number of pledges he made during his successful leadership campaign, including the scrapping of university tuition fees.

But his successful strategic repositioning of Labour is indicative of a constant throughout his life: a drive to succeed.

“If you’re born without privilege, you don’t have time for messing around,” Starmer once said.

“You don’t walk around problems without fixing them, and you don’t surrender to the instincts of organisations that won’t face up to change.”

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

British voters are picking a new government today, voting in a parliamentary election that is widely expected to bring the Labour Party to power against a gloomy backdrop of economic malaise, mounting distrust in institutions and a fraying social fabric.

A jaded electorate is delivering its verdict on Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s Conservative Party, which has been in power since 2010.

The center-left Labour Party led by Keir Starmer has had a steady and significant lead in opinion polls for months, but its leaders have warned against taking the election result for granted, worried their supporters will stay home.

“We cannot afford five more years under the Conservatives. But change will only happen if you vote Labour,” Mr. Starmer said on Wednesday night.

The Conservatives have conceded that Labour appears headed for victory and urged voters not to hand the party a “supermajority.” – AP

People attend the Reform UK party’s rally at the NEC in Birmingham, Britain, June 30, 2024. File
| Photo Credit: Reuters

As Britain’s election campaign enters its final stretch, the work of opinion pollsters is back in the spotlight with several recent projections of a record victory for the opposition Labour Party grabbing the headlines.

Labour’s ample 20-point opinion poll lead has hardly budged since Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced the July 4 election last month, shifting the focus to the question of how big Keir Starmer’s win will be rather than whether it will happen.

Also Read : U.K. General Election: Polls predict massive majority for Labour Party

But Britain’s first-past-the-post electoral system means the number of seats each party wins does not closely reflect the national share of vote they receive, so pollsters use so-called MRP modelling in a bid to more accurately estimate the result.

WHAT IS MRP & HOW DOES IT WORK?

MRP stands for Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification and it is used by pollsters to estimate public opinion at a local level from large national samples. Pollsters describe it as a model that uses polling data, rather than a poll itself.

Pollsters construct a statistical model which summarises how voting intention differs depending on the characteristics of survey respondents and where they live. This will take into account factors such as age, income, educational background and past voting behaviour.

This model is then used to produce estimates of the voting intentions among different types of people living in different areas of the country.

Pollsters combine that with official data on the numbers of people of each type living in each area to generate an estimate of overall voting intention for the constituency.

The exact model used to predict voter behaviour varies from pollster to pollster.

HOW DOES IT DIFFER FROM OTHER POLLING METHODS?

Conventional polling methods often apply a uniform national swing to predict how many seats a party will win.

This assumes there will be the same change in vote share for each party throughout the country, which is rarely the case, meaning it can overestimate the performance of a party in some areas and underestimate it in others.

MRP sample size is also much higher. Typical political polls rely on between 1,000 and 2,000 responses, while MRP modelling uses data from tens of thousands of voters.

HAVE THEY BEEN RIGHT IN THE PAST?

MRP is a relatively new technique. After polling companies miscalled an election in 2015 and underestimated support for Brexit in the 2016 referendum, many looked to use more sophisticated data analysis to come up with seat-by-seat results.

MRP was used by YouGov in 2017 to accurately predict Conservative Prime Minister Theresa May would fall short of an overall majority. YouGov said its model called 93% of seats correctly that year.

The method had some success in 2019, with YouGov’s MRP predicting a clear majority for the Conservatives although underestimating the scale of it.

WHAT ARE THE LIMITATIONS?

British voters have become more unpredictable, with Brexit scrambling traditional political allegiances.

More voters switched between the two main parties at a 2017 election than in any ballot dating back to 1966, according to research by the British Election Study. The more people change their minds, the harder it is to draw a representative sample.

“MRP only works when there is a strong link between, on the one hand, the characteristics of individuals and areas and, on the other, the opinion being modelled,” the British Polling Council says on their website.

Pollsters describe MRP as an estimate of the range of possible results.

Savanta’s MRP published on June 19 projected Labour could win a whopping 516 seats in the 650-strong House of Commons, with the Conservatives on 53. But it also noted nearly 200 seats had less than 7.5 percentage points between the parties in first and second place, deeming them as ‘too close to call’ and meaning the end result could be very different.

YouGov’s MRP published on the same day gave Labour 425 seats and the Conservatives 108, but classified 109 constituencies as “tossups” with fewer than five points between the parties in first and second place.

There may also be specific issues at play in individual seats which MRP modelling is unable to capture.