President Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. File
| Photo Credit: AP

President Joe Biden’s administration is urging Ukraine to quickly increase the size of its military by drafting more troops and revamping its mobilisation laws to allow for the conscription of those as young as 18.

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A senior Biden administration official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the private consultations, said Wednesday (November 27, 2024) that the outgoing Democratic administration wants Ukraine to lower the mobilisation age to 18 from the current age of 25 to help expand the pool of fighting-age men available to help a badly outnumbered Ukraine in its nearly three-year-old war with Russia.

The official said “the pure math” of Ukraine’s situation now is that it needs more troops in the fight. Currently, Ukraine is not mobilising or training enough soldiers to replace its battlefield losses while keeping pace with Russia’s growing military, the official added.

The White House has pushed more than USD 56 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since the start of Russia’s February 2022 invasion and expects to send billions more to Kyiv before Biden leaves office in less than months.

But with time running out, the Biden White House is also sharpening its viewpoint that Ukraine has the weaponry it needs and now must dramatically increase its troop levels if it’s going to stay in the fight with Russia.

The official said the Ukrainians believe they need about 1,60,000 additional troops, but the US administration believes they probably will need more than that.

More than 1 million Ukrainians are now in uniform, including the National Guard and other units.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been hearing concerns from allies in other Western capitals as well that Ukraine has a troop level problem and not an arms problem, according to European officials who requested anonymity to discuss the sensitive diplomatic conversations.

The European allies have stressed that the lack of depth means that it may soon become untenable for Ukraine to continue to operate in Russia’s Kursk border region. The situation in Kursk has become further complicated by the arrival of thousands of North Korean troops, who have come to help Moscow try to claw back the land seized in a Ukrainian incursion this year.

The stepped-up push on Ukraine to strengthen its fighting ranks comes as Ukraine braces for President-elect Donald Trump to take office on Jan. 20. The Republican said he would bring about a swift end to the war and has raised uncertainty about whether his administration would continue the vital US military support for Ukraine.

“There are no easy answers to Ukraine’s serious manpower shortage, but lowering the draft age would help,” said Bradley Bowman, senior director of the Centre on Military and Political Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “These are obviously difficult decisions for a government and society that has already endured so much due to Russia’s invasion.”

Ukraine has taken steps to broaden the pool of draft-eligible men, but the efforts have only scratched the surface against a much larger Russian military.

In April, Ukraine’s parliament passed a series of laws, including one lowering its draft-eligible age for men from 27 to 25, aimed at broadening the universe of men who could be called on to join the grinding war.

Those laws also did away with some draft exemptions and created an online registry for recruits. They were expected to add about 50,000 troops, far short of what Zelenskyy said at the time was needed.

Mr. Zelenskyy has consistently stated that he has no plans to lower the mobilization age. A senior Ukrainian official, who was not authorised to comment publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity, said Ukraine does not have enough equipment to match the scale of its ongoing mobilization efforts.

The official said Ukrainian officials see the push to the lower the draft age as part of an effort by some Western partners to deflect attention from their own delays in providing equipment or belated decisions. The official cited as an example the delay in giving Ukraine permission to use longer-range weapons to strike deeper into Russian territory.

The Ukrainians do not see lowering the draft age to recruit more soldiers as a substitute for countering Russia’s advantage in equipment and weaponry, the official said.

Conscription has been a sensitive matter in Ukraine throughout the war. Russia’s own problems with adequate troop levels and planning early in the war prevented Moscow from taking full advantage of its edge. But the tide has shifted and the U.S. says the Ukrainian shortage can no longer be overlooked.

Some Ukrainians have expressed worry that further lowering the minimum conscription age and taking more young adults out of the workforce could backfire by further harming the war-ravaged economy.

The senior Biden administration official added that the administration believes that Ukraine can also optimise its current force by more aggressively dealing with soldiers who desert or go absent without leave.