US Vice President Kamala Harris holds a narrow lead over her Republican rival Donald Trump in the upcoming presidential election, according to a Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll. The four-point lead is a small but notable improvement for Democrats in the election race, a month after polls had shown then-presidential nominee Joe Biden and Trump in a dead heat.

Harris’ progress marks a significant boost to the Democrats ahead of their national convention which begins tonight. Harris will officially accept her nomination as the Democratic presidential nominee at the convention.

While Harris stands at 49 percent, Trump is not far behind at 45 percent, the survey shows. If third-party candidates are included, Harris is at 47 percent, Trump at 44 percent and Robert F Kennedy Jr at 5 percent. 

In July, Trump took the lead with 43 percent, Biden was at 42 percent and Kennedy at 9 percent.

As Harris’ lead in the new Post-ABC-Ipsos poll gives Democrats a slight edge, the poll still points to a tight November election in November. Seven swing states Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada will hold the key to doors of success for the two presidential candidates.

But other public polls have indicated that Harris has gained ground in almost all swing states since Biden left the race.

The current US president’s sudden exit from the poll race was set in motion after his disastrous performance in the first presidential debate against his predecessor Trump. The gaffe-prone president put up a weak fight against his rival prompting several Democratic leaders and donors to call for him to step down from the election race.

After remaining defiant for months, Biden finally yielded to the pressure on July 21 and endorsed his deputy Harris for the Democratic nomination. 

The Democrats now hope to extend this lead ahead of their convention tonight and the upcoming debate between the two nominees. The key speakers endorsing Harris at the convention will include Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Bill and Hillary Clinton.

Washington:

In the five weeks since U.S President Joe Biden abandoned his flailing reelection bid, the Democratic Party’s fortunes have changed dramatically, and this week the change will be on full display. 

Vice President Kamala Harris, now the party’s candidate, is heading into the Democratic National Convention riding a historic whirlwind: her campaign has broken records for fundraising, packed arenas with supporters, and turned the polls in some battleground states in Democrats’ favour.

Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz – have turned “joy” into a campaign buzz word, a pithy reminder of the despair the party felt just weeks ago. The two publicly accept their party’s nomination at the convention in Chicago that starts Monday.

“This has been an historic transformation,” said Joseph Foster, a 71-year-old former Democratic Party chairman in the Philadelphia suburbs who remains active in the party. “People are enthused, young people are engaged. I have never seen anything like it.”

With less than 80 days to go to Election Day, the party is hoping to ride that wave of enthusiasm to victory.

That would make Harris, the first Black person and person of Asian descent to serve as vice president, the nation’s first female president.

But pollsters and strategists from both major parties warn that the “sugar high” of Harris’ initial surge will wear off, leaving simmering divisions among Democrats on issues like the economy and Israel-Hamas war along with a fierce battle against Republican candidate Donald Trump.

Harris’ historic personal story is “lovely and fine, but it’s the issues that are going to ultimately decide this election. Those issues include inflation, security, leadership and the world stage,” Republican pollster Adam Geller predicted. 

Harris had her first major economy-focused speech on Friday and laid out proposals to cut taxes for most Americans, ban “price gouging” by grocers and boost affordable housing, an early nod to the party’s progressive flank.

She will face increased public pressure to provide more details on policy in the upcoming weeks. Aides have signaled that she is unlikely to provide many specifics in some areas like energy to avoid alienating the moderate and progressive wings of her party.

Harris may also have to navigate intra-party squabbles over U.S. support for Israel’s war against Hamas and familiar divisions between progressives and moderates on a host of policy questions such as energy, healthcare and immigration.

About 200 social justice organizations plan to march at the Democratic National Convention on Monday to protest the Biden administration’s continued support of Israel in a war that has killed more than 40,000 Palestinians in Gaza.

New Map To Victory

Harris, who will address the convention on Thursday, enters the week of festivities boosted by a string of polls that show she has already redrawn an electoral map that strongly favored Trump in the final weeks of Biden’s candidacy.

Harris is leading or tied with Trump in six of seven swing states that are expected to decide the Nov. 5 election, according to the latest report issued Wednesday from the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

The election handicapper shifted its ratings for the swing states of Arizona, Georgia and Nevada toward Harris after it had moved all three states to “lean Republican” in early July when Biden was still the Democratic candidate.

“I think what we have is a reset race where the Democratic candidate now has reenergized, or at least reconstituted, the Biden 2020 coalition, not completely, but it’s much more put together than it was when Biden was on the top of the ticket,” Amy Walter, Cook’s editor, said in a call detailing the poll’s findings.

Biden won the White House in 2020 with the strong backing of Black, Hispanic and young American voters, but their enthusiasm for him this time around was sharply lower.

He finally stepped aside on July 21, under pressure from longtime allies and senior Democratic leaders amid growing concerns about his mental acuity and chances of beating Trump.   

Biden endorsed Harris and she quickly won the party’s support. The change rapidly reframed the race, giving Democrats a boost and forcing Trump’s campaign team to scramble in search of a new battle plan.  

A Monmouth University poll released Wednesday found a substantial jump in enthusiasm among registered Democratic voters and a sizeable one among independents. 

In June, only 46% of registered Democrats said they were fired up about a Biden-Trump rematch — that jumped to 85% in the latest Monmouth survey conducted earlier this month.

The jump in enthusiasm among independents went from 34% in June to 53% in the latest poll.

Still, Walter said concerns over immigration and the economy are helping Trump this time around after he lost his own releection bid against Biden in 2020. 

“It’s a coin flip,” she said of the race between Harris and Trump.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)