Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro, who is seeking reelection for a third term, dances during the closing of his political campaign, in Caracas, Venezuela, on July 25, 2024.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

Uncertainty hangs over presidential elections in Venezuela on July 28, with incumbent Nicolas Maduro vowing a “bloodbath” if he loses, which polls say is likely.

Seeking a third six-year term at the helm of the economically devastated country, Mr. Maduro lags behind challenger Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia in voter intention. However, the 61-year-old counts on loyal electoral machinery, military leadership and state institutions in a system of political patronage and, critics say, opposition repression.

Mr. Maduro said July 25 that he, and he alone, can “guarantee peace and stability” for Venezuela, having warned recently of a “bloodbath” if he loses to an opposition he has sought to paint as “fascists.”

Analysts have told AFP that violence is likely if the state apparatus intervenes in an election that the opposition is all but certain of winning. Mr. Gonzalez Urrutia, for his part, urged Venezuelans not let “the message of hate… intimidate you.”

Mr. Gonzalez Urrutia, a 74-year-old former diplomat, is running in the place of wildly popular opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, who was barred from the presidential race by institutions loyal to Mr. Maduro on what she and others say are trumped-up corruption charges.

Last week, the Venezuelan rights group Foro Penal reported 102 arrests this year of people linked to the opposition campaign, adding to more than 270 “political prisoners” in the country. U.S. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said July 25 that Washington hoped for “peaceful elections” and stressed that “any political repression and violence is unacceptable.”

The United States, which has sanctions in place against the Maduro government, is keen for a return to stability in oil-rich Venezuela, whose economic collapse has prompted many migrants to head to the southern U.S. border.

Rights watchdog Human Rights Watch said the U.S., European Union, and influential neighbours Brazil and Colombia should use every diplomatic tool to protect the integrity of the vote.

“While the election in Venezuela will hardly be free or fair, Venezuelans have their best chance in over a decade to elect their government, and the international community should have their back as they do,” said HRW Americas director Juanita Goebertus.

Venezuela’s failed economy

The government in Caracas accuses the opposition of conspiring against Mr. Maduro, whose 2018 re-election was rejected as illegitimate by most Western and Latin American countries.

Years of tough sanctions and other pressure have failed to dislodge the president, who enjoys support from a political patronage system and the nation’s military leaders, as well as from Cuba, Russia and China.

Mr. Maduro has repeatedly vowed that he won’t cede power now even as Venezuelans clamour for change.

The formerly rich petro-state has seen GDP fall by 80% in less than a decade, driving some seven million of its citizens to flee. Most Venezuelans live on just a few dollars a month, with the health care and education systems in total disrepair and biting shortages of electricity and fuel.

The government blames U.S. sanctions for the state of affairs, however, observers say the collapse of the country’s all-important oil industry was mainly the result of deep-rooted corruption and mismanagement.

U.S. oil sanctions were briefly eased after Mr. Maduro agreed in negotiations with the opposition to hold free and fair elections this year. They were tightened after he reneged on the conditions, though Washington is allowing companies to apply for individual licenses to keep operating in Venezuela.

‘If you lose, you go’

The election poses the biggest threat yet to 25 years of “Chavismo,” the populist movement founded by Mr. Maduro’s predecessor and mentor, Hugo Chavez.

Voter Mercedes Henriques, 68, told AFP at an opposition rally she was excited for change “because we cannot anymore with this dictatorship we have.” But her optimism was tainted by worry. “We are praying that they don’t steal the election,” she said.

Analysts told AFP the Mr. Maduro is unlikely to concede defeat, especially in the absence of any immunity guarantees. The Venezuelan government is under investigation for human rights abuses by the International Criminal Court.

Some 21 million Venezuelans are eligible to cast a vote on Sunday.

Caracas has withdrawn an invitation to European Union experts to observe the vote, while allowing monitors from the U.N. and the U.S.-based Carter Center.

Argentina’s former president Alberto Fernandez on July 24 said that Caracas had also withdrawn an invitation for him to observe the polling. This came after he echoed a statement by Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who had said: “Maduro has to learn: if you win, you stay. If you lose, you go.”