Telangana’s cumulative rainfall for October has been a mere 6.5 mm against the normal rainfall of 89.2 mm with a deviation of -93%, which is the lowest monthly rainfall recorded in 58 years. The earlier lowest rainfall of 0.9 mm was recorded way back in October 1965 and 7.2 mm in October 1967, respectively.

Meteorologists at the Telangana State Development Planning Society (TSDPS) have informed that while the global ‘El Nino’ (Pacific Ocean warming that affects the Indian monsoon) is the most likely phenomenon because no other activity has been witnessed, the suppressed Easterly winds from the Bay of Bengal could have led to the weak rainfall during the month.

“There were a couple of low-pressure cyclones that formed in the Bay of Bengal but one prominent one went off towards Bangladesh, hence there was no rainfall. There won’t be much rainfall in November and December also,” said TSDPS weather forecast consultant Y.V. Rama Rao on Wednesday.

During the current period from October to December, the northeast monsoon season is supposed to be receiving about 11.3 cm rain or about 12% of the total annual rainfall of 91.9 cm, a majority of which is to be received during the Southwest monsoon from June to September.

The rainfall deficit takes overall rainfall received since June to October to 86.8 cm as against the normal of 82.8 cm with a deviation of 5%. Within the GHMC limits, the overall rainfall has been 77.6 cm as against the normal of 72.4 cm or a deviation of 7 %.

The climatology for November is about 2 cm rainfall, with the highest rainfall ever recorded being 24.2 cm at Burgampadu (Bhadradri-Kothagudem) on November 3, 2012. The average minimum temperature is 19.2 degrees C and the lowest minimum temperature is 7 degree C recorded at Sirpur in Kumurum-Bheem district on November 27, 2017.

The weather consultant also stated that the current cloudy sky with warm day temperatures is also because of the Easterly winds strengthening, but by the middle of this month the temperatures could see a downward trend by a couple of degrees. “We can notice the signs of winter in a couple of weeks, where we can expect the night temperature to fall, though the season will officially set in December,” he added.

Watch | How climate change is affecting monsoon forecast and disaster management

From delayed onsets marked by intense dry spells, to devastating flash floods and destructive landslides, the monsoon in recent years has been a period of uncertainty and destruction for India.

Although there are various factors behind it, there is a general consensus among scientists that climate change plays a major role.

The Southwest monsoon that brings rain to the subcontinent during June and July, happens due to the heating up of the Asian landmass in the northern hemisphere during the scorching summer and the relative cooling of the southern Indian ocean.

How is climate change affecting monsoon? What are the challenges in predicting monsoons? Experts explain.

Script and videos: Aswin VN

Production: Richard Kujur