Quarterly earnings from several blue-chip firms, including Infosys and Reliance Industries, global trends, and trading activity of foreign investors, would act as major driving factors for equity markets’ movement in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said.

The domestic WPI inflation data for June — scheduled to be announced on Monday — will also influence trading sentiments, traders said.

Markets will remain closed on Wednesday for Muharram.

Among major quarterly earnings to be tracked this week are from HDFC Life Insurance Company, Bajaj Auto, BPCL, JSW Steel, Asian Paints, Infosys, and Reliance Industries. “Q1 earnings will be a key focus this week as numerous companies, including heavyweights Infosys, and Reliance, are set to release their results. Additionally, pre-Budget discussions are expected to contribute to market volatility,” Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd, said.

On the global front, a significant focus will be on China. The country is scheduled to announce its GDP and Industrial Production (IIP) numbers, Mr. Meena said. “Other global factors to watch include the speech by the US Federal Reserve Chairman, US retail sales figures, and macroeconomic data from Japan,” he added.

Meanwhile, IT services company HCL Tech on July 12 posted a 20.4% rise in consolidated net profit to ₹4,257 crore for the June-ended quarter and gave a revenue growth guidance of 3-5% for FY25 on GenAI diversification and strong operational execution.

“On Monday, markets will react to India’s inflation data. Key results this week include Jio Financial Services, HDFC Life, Asian Paints, LTIMindtree, Infosys, Wipro, JSW Steel, Paytm, etc. Also globally, investors will take cues from China’s GDP numbers, US core retail sales data, and ECB (European Central Bank) interest rate decision,” Siddhartha Khemka, Head, Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, said.

Retail inflation increased to four-month high of 5.08% in June as food items, including vegetables, became dearer, according to government data released on July 12.

Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services, said, “We expect stock-specific moves to gain traction due to the ongoing earnings season; indeed, IT will be in the limelight due to the good start to the earnings and outlook.” In the week ahead, economic data like China GDP, EuroZone CPI inflation, ECB policy, and the US Fed chair speech will be watched by investors to get cues on market momentum, he added.

On a weekly basis, the BSE benchmark jumped 522.74 points, or 0.65%, while the Nifty climbed 178.3 points, or 0.73%. The 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 622 points, or 0.78 per cent, to settle at a record closing level of 80,519.34 on Friday. During the day, it zoomed 996.17 points, or 1.24%, to hit an all-time high of 80,893.51.

The NSE Nifty surged 186.20 points, or 0.77%, to settle at a record closing high of 24,502.15. Intra-day, it jumped 276.25 points, or 1.13%, to hit a new lifetime peak of 24,592.20.

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The wholesale price based inflation remained in the negative territory for the fourth straight month in July at (-)1.36% on easing prices of fuel, even though food articles turned costlier.

The wholesale price index (WPI) based inflation rate has been in the negative since April and was (-)4.12% in June. In July last year it was 14.07%.

Inflation in food articles skyrocketed 14.2% in July against 1.32% in June.

“Decline in the rate of inflation in July, 2023 is primarily contributed by fall in prices of mineral oils, basic metals, chemical & chemical products, textiles and food products,” the commerce and industry ministry said on August 14.

Fuel and power basket inflation eased to (-)12.79% in July from (-)12.63% in June.

In manufactured products, the inflation rate was (-)2.51% as against (-)2.71% in June.

The RBI last week kept interest rates unchanged at 6.5% for the third straight meeting but signalled tighter policy if food prices drive inflation higher.

“The job on inflation is still not done,” RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das had said.

“Inflationary risks persist amidst volatile international food and energy prices, lingering geopolitical tensions and weather-related uncertainties.”

The RBI raised its inflation forecast for the current financial year ending March 2024 to 5.4% from 5.1% earlier, citing pressures from food prices.

The Central bank takes into account retail or consumer price index based inflation for formulating monetary policy. Retail inflation data for July is scheduled to be released later in the day.