The week gone by has been a busy period for India in the Indo-Pacific. India’s External Affairs Minister, S. Jaishankar, attended the ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Laos and the Quad Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Japan. Jaishankar’s visit to Laos also featured a bilateral meeting with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, following their last meeting at Astana earlier this year. The context for Jaishankar’s visit was set by India’s enduring pushback against China in key arenas of its interest. Arguably, China remains the pre-eminent concern for India’s national security planners. India’s China challenge is multipronged, with unresolved border conflict along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), as well as Beijing’s expanding footprint in the Indian Ocean. China’s more recent overtures in the Indo-Pacific, especially in the South China Sea region, have also compelled India’s Quad partners and several Southeast Asian countries to intensify measures to counterbalance Beijing. Thus, the China question was a natural focal point for Jaishankar during both Laos and Japan visits.

China, A Critical Cog In The Quad

At the Quad Foreign Ministers’ meeting, the four member countries of the grouping released a joint statement which amply addressed their common concerns with regard to China’s belligerent posturing in the Indo-Pacific. The Quad members have long resisted the notion that the formulation of the grouping is directed at countering Beijing, instead emphasising that it seeks to harness the emerging opportunities of collective cooperation in the Indo-Pacific. There is no denying, however, that the China factor is a critical cog in the Quad wheel. The latest joint statement released by the Quad countries evidently suggests that concerns regarding China’s overtures in the Indo-Pacific appear to be taking centre-stage in the thinking of the grouping. The joint statement expressed concerns over the evolving situation in the East and South China Seas, alluding to China’s unilateral actions by use of force and coercion. The statement decried, without naming, Beijing’s use of coast guard and maritime militia in the South China Sea attributing it to ‘dangerous manoeuvres’ in the region. 

Jaishankar’s individual remarks about the state of India-China relations have further garnered attention. Upon being questioned about India’s relations with China, Jaishankar unequivocally stated that the bilateral ties between the two neighbours are ‘not doing very well’. This admission appears to present continuity in India’s enduring pushback against China in light of border skirmishes and conflict since 2020. However, in the Indo-Pacific context, a shift appears to be underway in India’s approach towards China. In the past, India’s response to China’s aggressive overtures in the Indo-Pacific had remained relatively subdued. In its stead, Jaishankar’s recent comments at the Quad summit and the joint statement demonstrate India’s willingness to push back against China in the Indo-Pacific context as well. 

An Eye On Distant Seas

The question arises, what explains India’s pushback against China’s unilateral actions in the South China Sea? Even though the South China Sea geography does not fall under India’s primary maritime area of interest, it remains vital for India’s myriad strategic interests, such as the protection of Sea Lines of Communication (SLOCs), energy security, etc. Moreover, India’s sustained advocacy for a free, open, inclusive, and rules-based order at sea, emphasising the need for adherence to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), makes it imperative for New Delhi to respond critically against Chinese attempts to change the status quo in the region.

Within the wider Indo-Pacific, China’s continued attempts to foray into the Indian Ocean region, more recently by way of sending survey and surveillance vessels into the region, have prompted an enduring security dilemma in New Delhi, of People’s Liberation Army Navy’s (PLAN) imminent launch of carrier task force patrols in the Indian Ocean by 2025. Thus, upping the ante against China in the Indo-Pacific appears to be a logical progression in India’s continued efforts to counter Beijing’s advances in geographies of India’s core interests at sea. 

India’s Message

Notably, Jaishankar has displayed nuance and complex thinking in India’s plans to counter the multipronged challenge that China poses. While on the Indo-Pacific front, India has sought to actively engage in minilateral groupings to counter China, upon being asked if New Delhi would encourage third-party intervention for the resolution of the India-China territorial border conflict along the LAC, Jaishankar reiterated that only bilateral engagement based on ‘mutual respect, mutual interest, and mutual sensitivity’ can restore normalcy.

The message is very clear: New Delhi will not relent in pressing ahead with its pushback against Beijing even as the door is open for China to recalibrate its anti-India positioning.

(Harsh V Pant is Vice President for Studies at ORF. Sayantan Haldar works with the Maritime Initiative at ORF)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author

London is known for its open intellectual climate, where no idea is off-limits. But even in this dynamic city – and indeed in Washington too – it’s almost blasphemous to suggest that Russia and the West can be partners, or that the US and China can coexist as global powers. Recently, Nigel Farage, the Reform Party leader in the UK, faced a storm for urging the West to negotiate sensibly with Russia over Ukraine, calling the war a ‘complete stalemate’. People accused him of “echoing Russian propaganda”.

In India, we often hear that we don’t cultivate a society where all ideas are welcome. But let’s hope that suggesting a new chapter of “Hindi-Cheeni bhai-bhai” (India-China brotherhood) isn’t seen as blasphemy. The strong anti-China sentiment after the Galwan Valley clash in 2020 seems to have subsided. We’re buying more Chinese goods now than ever. In 2023, our bilateral trade hit over $136 billion. Hopefully, even those who burnt Chinese products in Gujarat and Delhi following the border skirmishes are more open to the idea now.

Sure, it might sound crazy to suggest that India and China should become trusted partners like the US and India, or Russia and China. But, it’s not entirely out of the question.

Sure, it might sound crazy to suggest that India and China should become trusted partners like the US and India, or Russia and China. But, it’s not entirely out of the question.

Major Geopolitical Shifts

India’s rise to become a global power is unstoppable; even China knows that. Talking to Chinese academics and journalists, you get the sense that they’re open to establishing long-term ties based on mutual respect. They like India, they want more people-to-people interactions, and one of them even wondered recently why India does not try to cast its spell over the dragon through its soft power of Bollywood  

Both countries have the responsibility to lift millions of their combined 2.8 billion people out of poverty. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has pledged to make India a developed country by 2047, which is a huge task. There are challenges, but if India and China team up and leverage each other’s strengths, it could be a major geopolitical shift, with far-reaching implications for global politics. 

Read | Modi-Hasina Should Worry About China, But Not Too Much

The US and its allies might be shocked and deeply concerned by a close India-China partnership. The West has benefited from the rivalry between the two countries as it aligns with their strategy of counterbalancing China’s rise. A partnership between these two Asian giants could undermine the West’s strategic interests in the region. Kishore Mahbubani, former Singaporean ambassador to the UN, has often said that most of Asia would cheer if this were to happen.

So, can India and China find common ground despite tensions over their disputed border? Prof. Mahbubani believes that while the two may never be best friends, they can have a good working relationship. He even says the 21st century belongs to the CIA (China, India, and ASEAN) countries. With US power on the decline, these countries will drive the world’s economic growth.

A Rollercoaster Ride

The idea of India and China being close friends isn’t new. Historically, they’ve acted like quarrelsome neighbours who fight and make up repeatedly. They share a long history of cultural and economic exchange dating back over two millennia. The Silk Road facilitated trade, and Buddhism, which started in India, found a significant following in China. These ancient ties laid a foundation of mutual respect and cultural affinity. During the colonial era, both countries faced subjugation by Western powers, fostering a sense of shared struggle. 

After gaining independence from the British, India faced border issues with China, and they continue to strain their relationship. In the early 1950s, the relationship was marked by camaraderie, epitomised by the slogan “Hindi-Chini Bhai-Bhai“. However, this period of cooperation was short-lived. The border dispute escalated into a full-scale war in 1962, leaving a lasting scar on bilateral relations. The disputed borders, particularly in the Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh regions, remain contentious issues.

The rivalry between the US and China will continue, and India will remain under US pressure in its effort to manage China. However, India’s strategic positioning between the US and China can work to its advantage.

Before the Galwan incident, Prime Minister Narendra Modi naturally leaned towards engaging with China. As Gujarat’s Chief Minister, he made four trips to the country to attract investment. As Prime Minister, he has visited China twice, and President Xi Jinping reciprocated with two visits to India. Both countries have emerged as major global economic powers, engaging in significant economic competition and areas of cooperation within multilateral frameworks like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).

Strategic Rivalry

Strategically, India and China view each other with suspicion. The latter’s close ties with Pakistan, its infrastructure projects in South Asia under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and its military presence in the Indian Ocean have heightened India’s security concerns.

Conversely, India’s growing partnership with the US and its participation in the Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) is viewed warily by China. The 2020 Galwan Valley clash exacerbated tensions and highlighted the fragility of the relationship. Despite several rounds of military and diplomatic talks, a comprehensive resolution to the border disputes remains elusive.

Mumbai’s Shanghai Dreams

Many youth in India might not know that not too long ago, India used to compare itself with Pakistan in all spheres. This attitude changed around the turn of the millennium, when the Maharashtra government launched a mega project to revamp Mumbai in 2004, based on the “Vision Mumbai” report by Bombay First, an organisation comprising some of Mumbai’s super-rich stakeholders. The report outlined strategies for transforming Mumbai into “another Shanghai”. While the project to transform Mumbai is still a “work in progress”, it marked the beginning of India’s comparisons with China. Today, China sees India as its great rival, at least in Asia.

Read | China Is Revamping Its Military, And India Must Not Take It Lightly

Projections show that the Indian economy will surpass Germany and Japan’s to become the world’s third-largest one by 2027. Currently, however, India’s economy is only 19% the size of China’s, even though it feeds nearly the same number of people. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), India’s nominal GDP in 2023 stood at $3.5 trillion, compared to China’s $18.2 trillion. India’s per capita income was $2,411, while China’s was $12,720. China’s exports last year exceeded $3.38 trillion, while India’s exports were $778 billion.

Collaboration Possibilities

Since China opened its economy in 1978, it has lifted 800 million people out of poverty – a feat that hasn’t been matched by any regime in history. India has also succeeded in reducing poverty significantly. Both nations have many more millions to help. Collaborating in economic development, technology, infrastructure, environmental initiatives, healthcare, cultural exchange, and geopolitical stability can benefit both countries and the world. Overcoming historical tensions and building trust through consistent dialogue will be crucial.

The intense rivalry between the US and China will continue, and India will remain under pressure from the US to stay a reliable partner in its effort to manage China. However, India’s strategic positioning between the US and China can work to its advantage. Ultimately, New Delhi’s strategic interests are best served by a balanced approach that navigates the complex dynamics of US-China relations while advancing its own national objectives. 

India knows that neighbours with shared borders may fight at times, but they can still continue to believe in the ‘love thy neighbour’ dictum.

(Syed Zubair Ahmed is a London-based senior Indian journalist with three decades of experience with the Western media)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. File
| Photo Credit: AP

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said on November 1 he will raise the plight of a detained democracy blogger with Chinese leaders during a state visit to China.

Mr. Albanese said he had approved a draft letter to the sons of Yang Hengjun, who has been detained in China since 2019.

“We’re very sympathetic and understand the concerns that they would have for their father and for this Australian who has been detained now for a long period of time,” Mr. Albanese told reporters.

The sons have made public a letter to Mr. Albanese, dated October 28, that said there was a “narrow window of opportunity” before Mr. Albanese left for China to secure their father’s freedom.

“We ask that you make it clear that it is not possible to stabilise the bilateral relationship with a government that is holding an Australian citizen just a few kilometres south of where you will be hosted,” the brothers added, referring to Beijing.

They said they had just last week received the first letter Yang had been allowed to send from detention. Yang wrote: “I’m sick, I’m weak, I’m dying.” Yang, who once worked for China’s Ministry of State Security, is still awaiting a verdict from his closed-door trial on espionage charges in May 2021.

His sons are 24 and 31 years old. Family friend Feng Chongyi said the sons had not been publicly identified because they feared Chinese retaliation for their father’s activities. Feng said Mr. Albanese becoming the first Australian Prime Minister in seven years to visit China created an opportunity for Yang.

“It’s not the last chance, but it’s the best chance,” Feng said. “The visit symbolises the complete normalisation of relations between the two countries.” Mr. Albanese’s visit that begins on Saturday is a sign that bilateral relations have improved since his centre-left government was elected last year following nine years of conservative rule.

Mr. Albanese will meet with President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang in Beijing and attend the China International Import Expo in Shanghai during the three-day visit.

Mr. Albanese raised the plights of Yang and another detained Australian, journalist Cheng Lei, in his first meeting with Xi on the sidelines of a Group of 20 summit in Indonesia a year ago. Cheng was deported last month in what many saw as Beijing clearing the way for Mr. Albanese’s visit.

Yang’s sons wrote that said they had been “inspired by the wonderful news” of Cheng’s release. They hoped Australian authorities could “achieve a second miracle by saving our father”. Asked about Cheng’s case, Mr. Albanese told reporters: “Every case is … different.”

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held wide-ranging talks with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, on October 27.
| Photo Credit: AP

President Joe Biden has emphasised that the United States and China need to manage competition in the relationship responsibly and maintain open lines of communication as he met Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi ahead of a potential meeting with President Xi Jinping next month to reset bilateral ties.

President Biden met Wang at the White House on October 27 after the top Chinese diplomat held wide-ranging talks with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan. Wang’s visit is expected to lay the groundwork for a potential meeting between Mr. Biden and Chinese President Xi at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit in San Francisco in mid-November.

“The President emphasised that both the United States and China need to manage competition in the relationship responsibly and maintain open lines of communication. He underscored that the United States and China must work together to address global challenges,” the White House said in a readout of the meeting between Mr. Biden and Wang.

Mr. Sullivan and Wang had candid, constructive, and substantive discussions on key issues in the U.S.-China bilateral relationship, the Israel-Hamas conflict, Russia’s war against Ukraine, and cross-Strait issues, among other topics, said the National Security Council in a readout of the meeting.

During the meeting, Mr. Sullivan discussed concerns over China’s dangerous and unlawful actions in the South China Sea. He raised the importance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.

Also read: View From India | Dispute in the South China Sea

China views Taiwan as a rebel province that must be reunified with the mainland, even by force. China has been conducting provocative military exercises around the self-ruled island.

“The two sides reaffirmed their desire to maintain this strategic channel of communication and to pursue additional high-level diplomacy, including working together towards a meeting between President Biden and President Xi Jinping in San Francisco in November,” said the readout.

State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller said Mr. Blinken and Wang discussed a range of bilateral, regional, and global issues, including addressing areas of difference as well as exploring areas of cooperation.

“The Secretary reiterated that the United States will continue to stand up for our interests and values and those of our allies and partners,” he said.

The relationship between the world’s two largest economies began to deteriorate during the Trump administration. In 2018, former President Donald Trump signed an executive memorandum that would impose retaliatory tariffs on up to $60 billion in Chinese imports.

The U.S. and China have one of the world’s most important and complex bilateral relationships. Since 1949, the countries have experienced periods of both tension and cooperation over issues including trade, climate change, the South China Sea, Taiwan and the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Biden administration has sought to re-establish normal diplomatic ties with China after an incredibly fraught period, most notably over the Chinese surveillance balloon incident in February.

Chinese President Xi Jinping. File
| Photo Credit: AP

Chinese leader Xi Jinping told Vietnam’s second-highest ranking official on October 20 that both countries must not forget the “original intention” of their traditional friendship.

China and the United States have been jostling for influence among Southeast Asian nations including Vietnam, which in September elevated its ties with Washington to a comprehensive strategic partnership, putting its one-time enemy on a par with Beijing and Moscow.

China has traditionally strong ties with Vietnam since diplomatic relations were established in 1950, despite a brief war in 1979. Beijing has backed Hanoi’s fight against former colonial ruler France, and later, against Saigon and the United States during the Vietnam War.

“Faced with the ever-changing international situation and arduous domestic development tasks, the two countries must not forget the original intention of their traditional friendship,” Xi told visiting Vietnamese President Vo Van Thuong.

Mr. Thuong, Vietnam’s No.2 after its Communist Party General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong, held talks with Xi after attending Beijing’s Belt and Road Forum.

In early October, Reuters reported that Vietnamese and Chinese officials were preparing for a possible trip by Xi to Hanoi either at the end of October or in early November, citing people familiar with the plans.

“The two sides should adhere to the principle of joint consultation,” Xi told Mr. Thuong, adding that China and Vietnam should capitalise on their geographical proximity and industrial complementarity. There was no mention of any Xi visit in the Chinese state media readout of their meeting.

On Wednesday, Vietnamese state media reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin had accepted an invitation from Mr. Thuong to “soon” visit Vietnam, when the two men met on the sidelines of the Belt and Road Forum. In September, U.S. President Joe Biden visited Hanoi.

Chinese Vice-President Han Zheng. File
| Photo Credit: AP

China is sending Vice-President Han Zheng to the U.N. General Assembly’s annual high-level debate, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said on September 15, suggesting that the country’s most senior diplomat Wang Yi will not attend.

This year’s gathering of world leaders at United Nations headquarters in New York starts on Monday with a sustainability summit. The weeklong general debate gets under way on Tuesday.

Chinese President Xi Jinping has not attended the U.N. session in person for several years. He participated via video-conference during the first two years of the coronavirus pandemic.

Wang Yi attended last year and generally represented China at the U.N. Wang is the head of the foreign affairs committee of China’s Communist Party. He was not mentioned in the Ministry’s announcement.

Han is a past member of the Politburo Standing Committee, an elite group of leaders within the party. He retired from that position but assumed the position of Vice-President in March.

Han’s continued political career parallels the one of Wang Qishan, who played an influential role in the past several years in managing the tense U.S.-China relationship. Wang led the Communist Party’s disciplinary body and was a member of the Politburo Standing Committee. He retired at the end of 2017 but was brought back to serve as Vice-President in 2018.

The absence of Beijing’s top leader at the General Assembly may not be as conspicuous as Xi not attending the Group of 20 summit that took place in India earlier this month.

The British government announced in August that Prime Minister Rishi Sunak would not attend the upcoming U.N. session. French President Emmanuel Macron and Russian President Vladimir Putin also do not plan to be there.

U.S. President Joe Biden (left) with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. File
| Photo Credit: AP

The “health of democracy” is an important issue for the India-U.S. relationship, said senior U.S. White House officials, adding that U.S. President Joe Biden raised these issues in every meeting he has held with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Briefing the media after the bilateral meeting on Friday night (September 8) between PM Modi and President Biden, the officials made a reference to the Karnataka State elections, calling Mr. Modi’s public congratulations to the Congress party for its victory in the State, which the ruling BJP lost in May, a “positive indicator” for democracy. 

They said India is “disappointed” that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping did not attend the G20 summit, said senior U.S. White House officials, adding that there was “clear appreciation” that U.S. President Joe Biden travelled to India for it.

On chances for a joint declaration being forged at the end of the G20 summit, the officials said there had been some forward movement, particularly on climate issues in the draft communique, but that the U.S. would remain “purposeful determined and resolute” on the language over Ukraine. As The Hindu had reported on September 8, officials and diplomats said the language on all non-geopolitical issues had been cleared, but Ukraine remains a sticking point with the U.S. and allies ranged on one side and Russia and China on the other. 

“There was a clear appreciation on the part of India that President Biden is here, and that he made the trip,” said Kurt Campbell, the National Security Council’s Coordinator for the Indo-Pacific, adding that “I think it is a disappointment for India that both Russia and China (Presidents) are not here”. 

Highlighting the India-U.S.-Saudi Arabia-India infrastructure corridor which now includes the European Union, that is expected to be announced, Mr. Campbell said that talks are still ongoing with all the parties present in Delhi, and this would be a “major breakthrough that would help fundamental delays with respect to infrastructure and communications, from India with the Middle East (West Asia) and then on to Europe. 

Worldview with Suhasini Haidar | PM Modi in US | A major leap forward for India-US ties?

The officials also faced several questions from the U.S. White House Press Corps members on the lack of access for journalists in the press pool to the bilateral meeting and the main G20 venue. Mr. Campbell said that this had been raised with India, and stressed that despite India’s objections, the U.S. had held a press interaction with PM Modi and President Biden during the state visit in Washington in June. 

“I do want to just underscore for you that in every meeting that I’ve been in, the President is very clear about the importance of the health of democracy. He doesn’t do this in such a way that suggests that one country is lecturing to another but rather that we all face shared challenges, and we think it’s important that we’re constantly asking the hard questions about our democracy.” When pressed on whether U.S. concerns over India have led to any “change” in the Modi government, Rear Admiral Eileen Laubacher, the NSC Senior Director for South Asia, pointing to recent Karnataka elections, said that Mr. Modi had congratulated the Congress party on the results, although she said the U.S. would not like to ascribe this to its influence.